what's my move

[strategy 4]

This is an amazingly easy push pf.

Or a fold, like I said. 8)

Amazingly easy fold.

What, are you disagreeing for the sake of disagreement?Refute my points if you think this is a simple fold. Show me where I am wrong in thinking that challenging the chip leader is mandatory in this scenario.

[strategy 4]

This is an amazingly easy push pf.

Or a fold, like I said. 8)

Folding is god awful. Why do you give this type of advice? Are you just hoping to someday end up at a table with all the people you've been advising?Surely you can see how easy it is for the villain to have a hand that cannot take any amount of heat here. The hero would have to have a pretty solid understanding of the villain's play to even consider a laydown like this. This is a golden opportunity to take control of the table.

No, it isn't. It's an easy NON-CALL, which makes it an easy fold or push, like I said. 8)

Are you not listening to me?Folding is not an option here.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Sure it is...its the button right beside call...

[strategy 4]

Sure it is...its the button right beside call...

To steal a good line from paulp...Folding is not an option unless you want to spew expectation like a firehose.

[fatmanonguitar 0]

This is an amazingly easy push pf.

Or a fold, like I said. 8)

Amazingly easy fold.

What, are you disagreeing for the sake of disagreement?Refute my points if you think this is a simple fold. Show me where I am wrong in thinking that challenging the chip leader is mandatory in this scenario.

I think I have refuted your points in several posts throughout this thread. You have your reasons for pushing, but to consider folding "not an option" and challenging the chip leader "mandatory" is ludicrous. There are times to take control of a table and this is not one of them.You have a healthy stack late in the tournament. You're not trying to build your stack to make the final table. After you fold your SB away, you are still in great shape and on the button. I totally agree that there is a decent range of hands that the chip leader can be "bullying" with at this stage of the game but I don't think that you need to risk your tournament to find out right here. And if you are pushing because you think he will lay down his investment, why do you need AQ to do it? Stealing from the stealer? You can do that blind - or at least with a hand that won't almost certainly be dominated by anything he calls with.

[strategy 4]

I think I have refuted your points in several posts throughout this thread. You have your reasons for pushing, but to consider folding "not an option" and challenging the chip leader "mandatory" is ludicrous. There are times to take control of a table and this is not one of them.

I have read all of your posts. They are filled with fear over having "only AQ" and "going home early." The pay schedule and blind structure should make any fear of going broke here disappear. If he is only caling you with one of the four hands that has you in trouble, you are making a RIDICULOUS amount of money on the times that he surrenders his 9500.

You have a healthy stack late in the tournament. You're not trying to build your stack to make the final table. After you fold your SB away, you are still in great shape and on the button.

This is when it counts. You have a chance to put some of that fear of going home empty-handed into the chip leader's mind. I have pushed with much less than AQ in situations like these before, and it's nothing but +EV given the mindset of most tournament players. They will fold a disproportionate number of times. I promise you that.

I totally agree that there is a decent range of hands that the chip leader can be "bullying" with at this stage of the game but I don't think that you need to risk your tournament to find out right here.

Translation: You agree that it will be highly +EV to raise him but are afraid to go out on the bubble. Don't be. You are giving yourself a far greater shot at first if you push all your money in here.

And if you are pushing because you think he will lay down his investment, why do you need AQ to do it? Stealing from the stealer? You can do that blind - or at least with a hand that won't almost certainly be dominated by anything he calls with.

We DON'T need AQ to do this. Are you suggesting that you would rather have 9T or something similar? That is amazing, coming from you. I am not disagreeing that we could literally do this with any two cards, but I much prefer AQ over lower suited connectors.All I am saying is that the pots you win uncontested with a push are going to make up for the occasional exit on the bubble. Think long term--if you give him a wide range of hands here, there is no way this move can be -EV.

[gobears 0]

Let's look at the options; it's either push or fold pre-flop. I'm going to assume that if we don't get knocked out that we will finish 1st or 2nd.Fold: You will have 47,500 chips, Villian will have 63,000 chips. I'll say that our tournament equity is about $460 (50/50 of 1st and 2nd split is $480; I'll give villian $20 extra dollars for his lead).Push: I believe that Villian will call with AJs+, AKo, 1010+ - if he calls with those hands, then Villian is 66% to win the pot against our AQo. If we win the pot, our equity is $600, if we lose, our equity is $0.If Villian folds pre-flop, then we will have 65,000 chips to villian's 46,500 chips. So our tournament equity is about $500.(1-x)500 + x(.34)(600) + x(.66)(0) > 460where x = % Villian calls.If Villian calls more than 14% of the time, it's negative EV from a tournament equity perspective. I think that he raises with a small enough range of hands where this is unlikely.I fold pre-flop.

[strategy 4]

Let's look at the options; it's either push or fold pre-flop. I'm going to assume that if we don't get knocked out that we will finish 1st or 2nd.Fold: You will have 47,500 chips, Villian will have 63,000 chips. I'll say that our tournament equity is about $460 (50/50 of 1st and 2nd split is $480; I'll give villian $20 extra dollars for his lead).

The others in the tournament are short, but they are not out. We aren't guaranteed second if we fold here. You're assuming WAY too much profit for a single fold.

If Villian calls more than 14% of the time, it's negative EV from a tournament equity perspective. I think that he raises with a small enough range of hands where this is unlikely.

No offense, but you skewed the equity for folding and still came up with a break-even number that is right around the frequency I believe we would get called.

[fatmanonguitar 0]

strategy,I truly think that you CAN justify pushing and that most of your points are valid. I am not softening my stance (It's still an easy fold for me), I just appreciate that this tournament can be one by both styles of players. That is what makes poker interesting.I just think that you overestimate the NECESSITY for coming over the top and the consequences of folding in this spot (which are negligible IMO). The consequences of getting called by a dominating hand on the other hand are enormous. While you think that the chances are much greater that he has a foldable hand (and may be right), you are risking 50000 (and your tournament life) to find out and win 10000.Opting not to take an unnecessary risk does not equate to being weak-tight.

[GregF 0]

gobears read my mind. I totally agree with his whole response.AQo is a marginal hand to CALL a raise with, especially against the only other big stack. I avoid this situation if at all possible. i.e., easy fold for me. If a small stack raises, it's a different story.And I absolutely check this flop. There is nothing to protect here. The only draw on board gives you the nuts. If he is slow-playing, take your free card. If your TPTK is good, it probably still will be on the turn. If he has AK, you have him reverse dominated and take his stack if an ace falls.Good post. A lot of lessons from this hand.

Right on

[zimmer4141 0]

I originally advised folding pf. I now think that it is up to the individual. I would probably push all in preflop now that I have thought about it. If you fold preflop, you are basically guaranteed 3rd, likely 2nd, maybe 1st. If you push here, you either likely get 1st or 5th if you are called, and the same basic possibilities if you fold pf or go all in and he folds to your push. I would push, because that is more of my style of play.

[fatmanonguitar 0]

I originally advised folding pf. I now think that it is up to the individual. I would probably push all in preflop now that I have thought about it. If you fold preflop, you are basically guaranteed 3rd, likely 2nd, maybe 1st. If you push here, you either likely get 1st or 5th if you are called, and the same basic possibilities if you fold pf or go all in and he folds to your push. I would push, because that is more of my style of play.

Zimmer,I think if he calls your all-in, you're probably 75-80% finishing 5th and 20-25% 1st. strategy, the biggest proponent of pushing, has been advocating a push BANKING on him folding. Might come to fruition more than not but you're not THAT much better off after this move than you are folding your SB away to warrant the risk of him calling with a dominating hand IMO. My style is not to get fancy with the chip leader with a marginal hand if I don't have to.

[strategy 4]

strategy, the biggest proponent of pushing, has been advocating a push BANKING on him folding. Might come to fruition more than not but you're not THAT much better off after this move than you are folding your SB away to warrant the risk of him calling with a dominating hand IMO.

It sets a completely different tone at the table if you move on him and he is forced to fold for fear of going out on the bubble. That has real value if you use my type of aggression at the table. I want people tossing their blinds to me for fear of being put to a big decision for all their money. The immediate chip gain is more than enough to make this move, even for the most conservative players.

My style is not to get fancy with the chip leader with a marginal hand if I don't have to.

Hands have situational value, not absolute. I've said it before in this thread: AQo is AA here. In a full table, with equal stacks and small blinds compared to the chip counts, AQo facing a raise in the SB is as marginal as it gets. Make the table shorthanded, give the chip leader every reason to pressure people for their blinds, and AQo is an absolute monster. You are leaving a lot of money on the table if you fold this. The total profit is going to be roughly T16k every time you force a fold.

[fatmanonguitar 0]

strategy, the biggest proponent of pushing, has been advocating a push BANKING on him folding. Might come to fruition more than not but you're not THAT much better off after this move than you are folding your SB away to warrant the risk of him calling with a dominating hand IMO.

It sets a completely different tone at the table if you move on him and he is forced to fold for fear of going out on the bubble. That has real value if you use my type of aggression at the table. I want people tossing their blinds to me for fear of being put to a big decision for all their money. The immediate chip gain is more than enough to make this move, even for the most conservative players.

My style is not to get fancy with the chip leader with a marginal hand if I don't have to.

Hands have situational value, not absolute. I've said it before in this thread: AQo is AA here. In a full table, with equal stacks and small blinds compared to the chip counts, AQo facing a raise in the SB is as marginal as it gets. Make the table shorthanded, give the chip leader every reason to pressure people for their blinds, and AQo is an absolute monster. You are leaving a lot of money on the table if you fold this. The total profit is going to be roughly T16k every time you force a fold.

I think we should agree to disagree. There are many winning players and they don't all have the same style. (and there are many quality posts here advocating both folding and pushing). I use your type of aggression in tourneys, I just wouldn't pick this spot to use it. If I knew with certainty that he would lay his hand down, then of course it would be a good move. You are second in chips with ~50K if you fold. Yu are by no means desperate here. There will be other opportunities to set an aggressive table image.

[strategy 4]

I think we should agree to disagree.

I guess so. I can't think of any other way to put it. *shrugs*nh sir.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Push or fold preflop, like I said... I had a similar experience yesterday afternoon (not with the smae stacks, but similar in regards to the cards), down to four players, pays 3, We are all about even in chips, but the blinds are so big now that once you decide to play a hand you will win or be out. I have had 2 7 offsuit in my bib blind 5 times out of 7 at this point, so I am very frustrated. I am UTG, with ace ten suited (diamonds), put in a raise, button min-raises me (button has done that every time throughout, so it was not out of the ordinary), blinds fold. I could fold, and still be in, but be severely crippled. Or, I could call, which would be bad also (as we have discussed in this thread). Finally, I could re-raise all-in, putting my opponent to the test. I opted to push, button opted to call. Without knowing what the button had, I think the call was correct. Knowing now what the button had (pocket kings), I still think it was correct. Long story short - I flopped two dimaonds, but turn and river did not bring a diamond or an ace. So, I bubbled.So, my choices throughout this hand were very similar to this post, where I could have chosen to not put in the raise pre-flop, AND I could have chosen to not push all-in. I made the right decisions IMO, but the cards did not agree with me.That's poker.