Steevt_ 0 Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 Sorry for the irrelivance but can someone please settle and arguement:I was watching an episode of deal or no dealThe contestant had won the power to be given a deal or no deal situation after EVERY boxHe had 4 boxes remaining including his boxHe still had the top box available = £250,000 and 3 smaller amountsHis offer was 19,500 and the dealer had told him IF he played another box and did not remove the £250,000 his next offer would be £40,000Now let me see if I got this correct, He had 3/4 chance of NOT taking the £250,000 out = 75% in his favour but was getting givving 2/1 oddsHave I got this correct?Can someone please shed some light or numbers ect on why it would be a good move to not deal and go forward or whether they think he should of dealt removing all emotion from the scenario, just using maths.....?IEArguements for and against playing on, what is in his best interest? Link to post Share on other sites
Chet Chetterson 0 Posted May 10, 2010 Share Posted May 10, 2010 This is the wrong section for the post, fyi.I think offers are based more on expected value than the odds of hitting a low case. So the low values actually matter to some degree unless they were 3 of the 4 lowest or so. Link to post Share on other sites
Steevt_ 0 Posted May 10, 2010 Author Share Posted May 10, 2010 I think the available boxes left were250k3k1k£500Got offered 19.5k but dealer stated if he took 1 more box and did not take the 250k he would be offered 40kWhat is in the players interests and why? Link to post Share on other sites
Biff Goods 0 Posted May 11, 2010 Share Posted May 11, 2010 ShenanigansThey are cases...not boxes...There are no dealers....It's the banker and the host...They don't tell you what the next price if you get past this because of the psychological strategy and entertainment value of the game. The whole point in why your current deal is so stressful to make is because you don't know what the next price will be...is it gonna go up...down....who knows....it's so intense! Link to post Share on other sites
Steevt_ 0 Posted May 11, 2010 Author Share Posted May 11, 2010 I mean using maths and statistics - just like you work out your odds ect in poker compared to the potNo matter the result, is it in the players interests to take another box Link to post Share on other sites
dingas 0 Posted May 11, 2010 Share Posted May 11, 2010 of course it's in his interests to continue to the end given those numbers. As it stands, he has a 25% chance of winning $250,000 or he can sell out for $19,500. $250,000/4 > $19,500, so he should take another box. Obviously, though it depends on his personal situation. If, for example, his wife needs an operation costing $17,000 and there is no other way he can afford it but from his winnings on this game show, then he should take the settlement. But from a pure $EV standpoint, it's clear that he should continue. Link to post Share on other sites
Canary3 1 Posted May 14, 2010 Share Posted May 14, 2010 Stats say that you should never take the deal. It's all relative though when you think about life EV. Link to post Share on other sites
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