UncleHoot 0 Posted November 2, 2009 Share Posted November 2, 2009 Anyone have any idea of how many tournaments (of a certain buy-in/players) you should have under your belt before you get a decent idea of your actual ROI? My gut feeling says probably a lot less in the 9p's and a whole bunch more for the 180p's, but that's about all I have to go on.Also, I downloaded my "Playing History Audit" from PokerStars, loaded it into an Access database, and found lots of cool information. Because you can calculate when you register and when you finish, you can then determine the average amount of time to play a particular type of tournament, and actually calculate $/hr based upon how many tables you play simultaneously. 6-tabling the 1.75's, I theoretically make about $4.50/hr. I don't mind if you laugh, but it is what it is.Anyway, I've got over 750 games in the 1.75 18p tourneys (ROI about 25%), and honestly, I'm still not sure that's enough, but it's probably pretty close. I've been grinding these (and others) for the last month. With an equal number of 2.20 180p's, I honestly don't think it's an accurate reflection, because 1 win can really skew the results. I'd figure perhaps 2,000 or 3,000 before you really know your ROI in the 180's.Anyone have a formula based on # of players? Or even just some thoughts. I've been thinking about this for awhile, and there must be some sort of guideline for doing these calculations.Why am I doing this? Poker is fun. Stats are fun. Making a few bucks is fun. Not planning to quit my real job, tho. Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted November 2, 2009 Share Posted November 2, 2009 Mr Sparco wrote an article on this for 2 + 2 a couple of years ago. Unfortuantely the link seems to be broken (http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/Vork0607.html)I did something like this for 180 man tournaments (with a bit (a lot) of help) a couple of weeks ago. It's shocking how big of a sample you need in 180s to even have a bound on your ROI of +/- 5% - i had played 1600 and had a bound of +/- about 16%.I'd guess 750 would be ok for a +/- 5% bound on 18 mans.There's a method you can use although it's quite long and will involve you having to compile all of your results- although for 18 mans it wont be too hard since there are only 5 real results. Link to post Share on other sites
UncleHoot 0 Posted November 2, 2009 Author Share Posted November 2, 2009 Mr Sparco wrote an article on this for 2 + 2 a couple of years ago. Unfortuantely the link seems to be broken (http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/Vork0607.html)I did something like this for 180 man tournaments (with a bit (a lot) of help) a couple of weeks ago. It's shocking how big of a sample you need in 180s to even have a bound on your ROI of +/- 5% - i had played 1600 and had a bound of +/- about 16%.I'd guess 750 would be ok for a +/- 5% bound on 18 mans.There's a method you can use although it's quite long and will involve you having to compile all of your results- although for 18 mans it wont be too hard since there are only 5 real results.Hmmm... Yeah, here's a link to where the article is mentioned. http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...php/t95217.htmlThe statistical math mentioned is above my head. I have a math minor. If anyone would like to break it down for a layman, that would be great. Link to post Share on other sites
GWCGWC 83 Posted November 2, 2009 Share Posted November 2, 2009 I'm interested in knowing the answer for; 10 person dbl or nothing turbo sng, 180 turbo sngs, 90 turbo sngs, 45 turbo sngs, 18 turbo sngs.I think the answer is somewhere between a lot and more than you'd think. Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted November 2, 2009 Share Posted November 2, 2009 Here is the method for turbo 180s ($12). Requires A level math stats knowledge really and a bit of thought. ( A level is 18 yo maths in UK)I've labelled as much as I think is neccessary, if anything doesn't make sense, ask. Total refers to total games.m Sum of Column H should say sum of COlumn IIt'll be way simpler with 18 mans and 9 mans since the raw data wouldn't be nearly as complex.I'd be interested to see resaults for other variations of sngs too. I don't have anywhere near enough data on anything else.If I remember correctly, if you double the sample size in the above (And replicate the results) you find the error decreases by root 2. So if I wanted to get my ROI to +/- 2% I'd have to play about 12k games. Also overall variance will vary drastically with ROI. Link to post Share on other sites
UncleHoot 0 Posted November 2, 2009 Author Share Posted November 2, 2009 It's almost making sense to me. I'll need more time to digest that. I had one single stats class in college, and I think I forgot most of it 5 minutes after the exam. How was I supposed to know that it might be something fun to know down the road? No one told me it might be useful! :bubble_lol:But seriously, thanks for the info. I'll try to play around with it. I also wrote to the 2+2 webmaster to see if they could find that article again. Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted November 2, 2009 Share Posted November 2, 2009 I've forgotten about 90% of what I learned and I did a degree in it.I',m sure sparco will be on later and should have a copy of the article he wrote. I haven't seen it myself, just heard it mentioned. Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted November 2, 2009 Share Posted November 2, 2009 All this math is making me wet... Link to post Share on other sites
Mr. Sparco 2 Posted November 3, 2009 Share Posted November 3, 2009 I'm sure I still have the article somewhere... Playing some tourneys now, but I'll see if I can find it after my session or tomorrow. I'll put it online somewhere and post a link. Link to post Share on other sites
Mr. Sparco 2 Posted November 4, 2009 Share Posted November 4, 2009 OK, I found the article and put it on my web page.How Big is Big Enough?Questions/comments always welcome! Link to post Share on other sites
UncleHoot 0 Posted November 4, 2009 Author Share Posted November 4, 2009 OK, I found the article and put it on my web page.How Big is Big Enough?Questions/comments always welcome!Awesome! Thanks! I think this is math that I can understand, too. LOL I'll have to work through some calculations when I get a chance. Link to post Share on other sites
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