serge 904 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Ok so I have been studying trends and lines and public perceptions. I am going to experiment in a theory that i will document here.Contarian betting has been mentioned and practised by Biatch amongst others.I am going to take it to another level and just bet perceived bad teams consecutively and bet against perceived good teams consecutively.Right now in the eyes of the betting public the Leafs are the worst team in the league and most the public thinking its a lock will bet agaisnt them. And a team like Rangers or Colorado are perceived to be good.For the next 5 games I will bet one unit on the Leafs.Also for the next 5 games i will bet one unit AGAINST the RangersThis is all imaginary as I want to try the theory first.Current Bankroll: $2078BET 1:Toronto Maple Leafs +136 vs New York Rangers. LOSSBET 2San Jose Sharks +104 at New York Rangers WINBET 3New Jersey Devils +140 at New York Rangers WINBet 4Toronto Maple Leafs +176 at Vancouver Canucks LOSSBet 5Montreal Canadiens vs New York Rangers +106 WINBet 6Phoenix Coyotes at New York Rangers +135 LOSSBet 7Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks +157 WIN Link to post Share on other sites
bdc30 0 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Please can I book ALL these bets? Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 translation: a thin excuse to bet on the leafs.just joking with you serge, but I caution you against using the leafs as your team to bet against because " nobody" believes in them, because no matter how bad they may ( or may not) be this season, they still are a hugely popular team with a massive fan base unlikely to bet against them.. Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 translation: a thin excuse to bet on the leafs.just joking with you serge, but I caution you against using the leafs as your team to bet against because " nobody" believes in them, because no matter how bad they may ( or may not) be this season, they still are a hugely popular team with a massive fan base unlikely to bet against them..That's why Colorado was +120 against them the other night. That is just an insane line, and sadly, I'm an idiot and missed it. I would have wagered a large chunk at that price.. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 as i said..its a theory...I am pretty confident it will work, but i am not using real money yet..Betting against the Leafs wont be profitable in the long run and I like to prove it...Its not just the Leafs, any team that is on a losing streak or a team on a winning streak is what you need to bet against. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 That's why Colorado was +120 against them the other night. That is just an insane line, and sadly, I'm an idiot and missed it. I would have wagered a large chunk at that price..its really easy to say after the fact.. Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 its really easy to say after the fact..No, it's really easy to say that period. If the Islanders came in at +120, that would be a great line too. At this point in time, the leafs are a dog to the entire NHL. I know that hurts your feelings, but it's true. Someone has to be the worst team, and right now it's toronto. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 I think there may be more value in betting against the panthers. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 No, it's really easy to say that period. If the Islanders came in at +120, that would be a great line too. At this point in time, the leafs are a dog to the entire NHL. I know that hurts your feelings, but it's true. Someone has to be the worst team, and right now it's toronto.so do you think the Leafs will lose 80 games, 75 games, 65 games..??Its all a mathematical game..they are playing really bad, but they arent the worst team in the league.Its like the stock market, sell high and buy low...The leafs are low so you buy them..I wont guarantee they will win Saturday night, but they will win at least 5 of the next 10...when i am getting plus money on them which i will, thats a huge profit. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 The problem I find with betting on the Leafs is that you never get realistic odds. Perhaps the oddsmakers have found that they don't need to give overly favorable odds to encourage betting on Toronto. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 The problem I find with betting on the Leafs is that you never get realistic odds. Perhaps the oddsmakers have found that they don't need to give overly favorable odds to encourage betting on Toronto.this is good possibility...The Leafs after their previous 5 games should not have been a favourite in that game...its something i need to study further as , i have to balance the publics perception with the popularity of the team. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 The problem I find with betting on the Leafs is that you never get realistic odds. Perhaps the oddsmakers have found that they don't need to give overly favorable odds to encourage betting on Toronto.That's my point.. it's like norte dame is never a value bet, no matter what their record is, because there are just to many fans of ND betting on the other side to make it worth it. I don't know ton about hockey, or hockey betting, but I would imagine that the Leafs and the Habs would be terrible value even if they are on deep losing streaks.. If a team like the leafs and a team like the panthers had the same basic team, same record, same goals for/against differential, I guarantee you the lines on the panthers would be better than the lines on the leafs. Link to post Share on other sites
Speed Limit 0 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Yep, just bet on the Panthers and lose everything. Link to post Share on other sites
troyomac 0 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 It's not about picking certain teams to win and certain teams to lose. You're looking at it all wrong if you're taking Toronto for the next 10 days without seeing the lines. If the Rangers were -180 and the Leafs +160 it could be a close call, if the Rangers were -250 and the Leafs +230 then obv the Leafs look like a better bet, and if the Rangers were -120 and the Leafs +100, the Rangers would be a better bet. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 It's not about picking certain teams to win and certain teams to lose. You're looking at it all wrong if you're taking Toronto for the next 10 days without seeing the lines. If the Rangers were -180 and the Leafs +160 it could be a close call, if the Rangers were -250 and the Leafs +230 then obv the Leafs look like a better bet, and if the Rangers were -120 and the Leafs +100, the Rangers would be a better bet.i m going to guess that the line will be around +125 to +140.. Link to post Share on other sites
troyomac 0 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 i m going to guess that the line will be around +125 to +140..Then I'll be betting on the Rangers Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 It's not about picking certain teams to win and certain teams to lose. You're looking at it all wrong if you're taking Toronto for the next 10 days without seeing the lines. If the Rangers were -180 and the Leafs +160 it could be a close call, if the Rangers were -250 and the Leafs +230 then obv the Leafs look like a better bet, and if the Rangers were -120 and the Leafs +100, the Rangers would be a better bet.An excellent point here. Contrarian betting is about value.. it's about betting on teams that are undervalued due to public perception of them. That has to do mainly with their performance over one season, their recent performance, their historic performance and fanbase size, and the gap of these issues between the two teams..So, small market teams that are good, it make take a long time for the betting public to get on board with them being good ( this happend with Tampa Bay in the 2008 season in baseball, where the betting public undervalued them for months). So just because the leafs have started poorly, doesn't mean they are a good candidate for contrarian betting. Because if they get a lot of action betting on the leafs, the lines will never be that good . That's why I think a team like the panthers would have a great deal more value, because of both their slow start, the fact they haven't made the playoffs in 10 years, and basically have no fan base at all.. it seems to me that their lines will be highly inflated, and there could be some value there. just my layman's take, however, grain of salt and what not. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 While the point about the Leafs being potentially overvalued is fine, I do not believe it applies to the Leafs. The Rays are a better example, and to some point, someone like the Patriots as well. Regardless of who is on the team, the recent success (or lack thereof) will colour public opinion, and affect betting spreads.If the same was true of the Leafs, than money could be made just betting against the popular teams (since, by assumption, oddsmakers would always undervalue their opponents.) I do not think that applies to popular teams, like the Leafs/Habs, so much as popular teams based on success and public opinion, like the Rays/Pats. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 I guess what I am saying is, that teams with large fan bases, that are popular, will never have as much value as their small market equivalent. There may be indeed value betting on the leafs, while they are perceived to be horrible.. but I think there will be more value betting on teams like the panthers, because they will have less homer sucker fans willing to bet on them +125 verses the rangers ( no offense, serge). Link to post Share on other sites
bdc30 0 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 I would imagine that the Leafs and the Habs would be terrible value even if they are on deep losing streaks..ding ding ding.I had my whole pinnacle roll (all $75 of it...sigh) on colorado the other night - and will be betting them again tonight against montreal. I'm at work so can't check the odds, but last night when the lines went up I got Col at +122 for $50. If they're still +anything tonight when I get home I'll probably bet the rest. Montreal is playing terribly.... Link to post Share on other sites
troyomac 0 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 ding ding ding.I had my whole pinnacle roll (all $75 of it...sigh) on colorado the other night - and will be betting them again tonight against montreal. I'm at work so can't check the odds, but last night when the lines went up I got Col at +122 for $50. If they're still +anything tonight when I get home I'll probably bet the rest. Montreal is playing terribly....I like this bet too, I got the Avs at +125 on bet365. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 I like this bet too, I got the Avs at +125 on bet365.Avs are +146 against the Habs(pinnacle)...Huge huge sucker play to bet the Avs tonight..As much as I hate the Habs..this is a game they will win. The line is basically telling you that the Habs are going to win...i am very happy to see Brent go broke at the hand of the Habs.Bob is right..the lines at pinnacle are better...+130 same game on bet365.. Link to post Share on other sites
bdc30 0 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Avs are +146 against the Habs(pinnacle)...Huge huge sucker play to bet the Avs tonight..As much as I hate the Habs..this is a game they will win.Care to put $25 at +137 on it?? Link to post Share on other sites
Ottawa_Biatch 288 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Avs are +146 against the Habs(pinnacle)...Huge huge sucker play to bet the Avs tonight..As much as I hate the Habs..this is a game they will win. The line is basically telling you that the Habs are going to win...i am very happy to see Brent go broke at the hand of the Habs.Bob is right..the lines at pinnacle are better...+130 same game on bet365..Although I don't agree with Serge's theory on the Leafs, as I agree with the others that the public backs them a lot regardless of their record. I agree with Serge in that Colorado is a very very huge sucker play tonight. Although it's not really a contrarian bet because the divide between the two sides right now is something like 55/45%. I think Montreal wins this very very easily tonight. I actually have money on them on the puckline (+185), because I think they are going to kill the Avs. I can't really explain it. But putting Colorado +140 on Pinnacle and +130 on bet365, is just screaming and begging for the public to put money on the Avs. Something very fishy about this line, and I think it whispers to the sharps that MTL wins this by atleast 2, if not a blowout. Link to post Share on other sites
bdc30 0 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 It's funny I so rarely bet against Montreal, but it's almost a win/win thing. If they lose, I make money, if they play well and win, I'm happy anyway (not like it's life changing money I'm betting here...)I just think they're playing terrible hockey right now. I saw it first hand in Buffalo a week ago saturday. They had NO business even being in that game, let alone pulling out the win in overtime. Not only were they outshot by a massive margin in the first and third periods, they were outplayed from the drop of the puck to the buzzer. Their defensive positioning was terrible and they weren't creating any offensive chances. Maybe Chris can attest to this but I really think you get a better "view" of how a team is playing by watching the game live. Seeing the game on tv just isn't the same. You don't always see the guy who's two steps behind or the sloppy line change or the lack of drive from the forwards backchecking because the cameras are so zoomed in to the puck carriers.I think the habs are in for a lonnng season. Link to post Share on other sites
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