Ahl Shortstackers - 19/20 and 20/21 AHL CHAMPIONS

[serge 904]

Niño. I love him

[digitalmonkey 929]

Niño Johansen. I love him

[serge 904]

 

I make good trades and I make bad trades

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

I make good trades and I make bad trades

 

we all do. even the professionals get it wrong.

 

Id much rather be the type of person who gets it right+wrong, then the ones who just dont do anything unless its a totally obvious move, or just aren't active at any time.

[Zach6668 513]

Time for an update as we head into the season. Here's the post-auction/draft roster.

 

tl;dr - My team is good, I have lots of good players, and I make a lot of really reasonable point predictions (and throw out some ceiling numbers).

 

Forwards:

 

Paul Stastny (STL) $10.00

Stastny was the big free agent forward pick up at the auction. He'll be expected to put up about 0.600 pool points per game (PPPG) again... something like 28g, 40a if he stays healthy. This is the second year in a row that I won Stastny at auction, though he went for $9.00 last season. He was flipped, along with Boston goalies, for Mark Stone (see below) and other pieces that were not re-signed.

 

Nathan MacKinnon (COL) $5.00

I'm fully expecting MacKinnon to build on a tremendous rookie season. It's possible this is the year he tops 80 points. I expect him to be my best forward by the end of the year, and he could even flirt with 0.700 PPPG.

 

Sean Couturier (PHI) $3.00

Couturier is a Toews rule call up this year. He's been cast as a two-way center in Philly, but has shown some enticing offensive flare in the past. If he starts to get some regular scoring line and power play time, he could finally break out offensively. Conservatively, though, he's 15G, 20a type player in his current role. His upside, though, is probably around 60 points, however unlikely that may be.

 

Brandon Sutter (PIT) $2.50

Sutter is a pretty similar player to Couturier, except without the offensive upside. Though he shows flashes at times, it's unlikely he'll ever get near the 50 point mark. Matching his career high of 40 points would be a good season for the 3rd line center. Some injuries could improve his stock on the Pens, but it would just be a short term gain.

 

Mark Stone (OTT) $1.50

Summer call-up Stone, acquired in the Stastny trade at last year's deadline, is a highly touted rookie. After putting up 41 points in 37 games in the AHL, he was brought up to the Sens, where he put up 8 points in 19 games. He looks ready to break into the league in a full time scoring roll. His likely peak is about 50 points for the season, though the tempered expectation is around 40.

 

Drew Stafford (BUF) $1.00

Stafford has had his ups and downs in Buffalo. I was hoping he'd find a new home at the deadline last year, but the Sabres opted to keep him, or couldn't find a suitor. Nonetheless, he's guaranteed to be in the top 6, likely on the first line and first PP, and is pretty reliable for 35-40 points. His ceiling is a bit higher if he can get back to his 52 points in 62 games form of 10/11, or his 50 point season the following year.

 

Tyler Toffoli (LAK) $1.00

Toffoli, another summer call-up, is ready to breakout this year. He's set to be a fixture in LA's top 6, and should get a healthy bump on his numbers from last season, where he posted 29 pts in 62 games. His ceiling is likely 60 points, and he has 30 goal potential. 40-50 points seems like a safer bet, however, with 20ish goals. He has 2G, 5A in 4 pre-season games this fall.

 

Ondrej Palat (TBL) $0.75

Palat broke out in a big way last season with 59 points and was a finalist for the Calder trophy. Expectations should be realistic this year, though, as he had some good puck luck, and extraordinary line mates, helping him with those numbers. Nonetheless, he's expected to be in Tampa's top 6 again this year. He should probably be around the 50 point mark.

 

Matt Cooke (MIN) $0.75

Cooke isn't all that good at hockey, and I probably should not have signed him. I expect 30 points, but I also expect that I try to trade him or buy him out at some point. If Zucker and/or Haula find themselves in scoring roles on the Wild, it's likely Cooke lives on the reserve list. Even if they don't, it's likely he does anyways.

 

Jason Zucker (MIN) $0.50

Zucker has been knocking on the door for a while and should get a full time shot at the NHL this season. The question is whether or not he's on a scoring line, or the 4th line. If it's the former, 30-40 points would be a good rookie year, although he has the skill to push his ceiling higher, to maybe 50 points. Zucker was also a pre-draft call-up.

 

Michael Latta (WSH) $0.50

Latta is in a fight to make the Caps lineup, and right now, it's looking like he'll start out as the 4th line center. His offensive potential is limited, so his summer re-signing was intended only to give him a bit of a longer tryout, given his low price-point. I don't expect much, but anything is possible with skilled, young forwards.

 

Tyler Graovac (MIN) $0.50

Graovac was the 4th and final summer call-up, and it was entirely due to the farm size restrictions. Though he remains at the Wild camp this close to the season, it is not likely he makes the team, and is probably a full year or two away. He was called up rather than dropped and will be be a permanent fixture on the reserve list for the next season or two.

 

Erik Haula (MIN) $0.25

Haula was a mid-season pick up last year and has proven to be a dynamic, skilled player. The question lies with how he is used. He has the skill to be on a scoring line, but is often used defensively. He should be a full time NHLer this year, though, so we expect him to improve upon his 15 points in 46 games from last season. 30 points would probably be a safe bet, but he has the ability to score 40 or more if he finds his way onto a scoring line. Given the Wild's depth, it's not likely he sees the top 6, so they would need to put together a 3rd line built to score, rather than check.

 

 

Defensemen:

 

Niklas Kronwall (DET) $8.50

Kronwall leads a completely re-vamped defense corps this season (read: I have NHL defensemen now). He, along with the next 3 players, were picked up at the auction in a surprising, favourable turn of events. Kronwall has been a pretty consistent half=point per game player in the NHL, and I expect that to continue today. 45 points would be about right.

 

Zdeno Chara (BOS) $6.50

Chara is getting up there in age, but still managed 17 goals last season. It looked like he took a bit of a step back, and was replaced on the point on the PP by Torey Krug. However, he spent time as a net front presence on the PP and was effective there. 35-40 points.

 

Christian Ehrhoff (PIT) $6.00

Ehrhoff was my last money pick-up and went for my last available cent. The homer factor obviously comes into play here, but I was ecstatic to get him after expecting to just get 3 of my targetted players. Getting a 4th was a boon. He should be able to boost his output on the Pens, as he's been getting top PP time, and a first group pairing with Kris Letang. 40 points.

 

Mike Green (WSH) $5.00

Green has had some injury trouble lately, and has lost that dynamic touch that saw him break the 70 point plateau twice, including a 31 goal season. I would expect him to continue the resurgence he started last year. 40 points should be a lock, with a pretty high ceiling if everything falls back into place for him, as high as something in the 60s, maybe,

 

Dennis Wideman (CGY) $4.00

Another guy with injury problems, Wideman, should he stay healthy, can be a very effective offensive D-man. 43 points in 92 games over the last 2 seasons, 46 in a full season before that. I would put his healthy forecast around 40 points.

 

Nick Holden (COL) $0.75

Holden broke out last season, with 25 points in 54 games, including 10 goals. After being mostly an AHLer until he was 26, he was rewarded with a 3-year deal. He's a defensive liability, so sometimes he's a threat of being healthy scratched, but when he plays, he tends to put up points. I would expect another 25 points this season, though that would be a regression, as I would expect him to play more than 54 games.

 

Jordie Benn (DAL) $0.75

Nothing special about Benn. He has the ability to be a 20 point guy, which would make him a useful depth player in this league. My projection is more like 15 points, though.

 

David Warsofsky (BOS) $0.25

In a fight to make the Bruins, Warsofsky is probably more likely to be a year away from full time duty. Not much of an expectation this year, but if he plays, he can score. In 6 career NHL games, he has 1 goal, 1 assist.

 

Kyle Cumiskey (CHI) $0.25

Cumiskey is a talented offensive d-man, but was exiled to Europe the last two seasons after a season in the AHL. He put up good numbers over those three years, and has 35 points in 132 NHL games, so if he manages to make the Hawks, he could get some points. Not expecting much, if anything. These 25 cent pickups were mostly about taking some long shots who could produce points, rather than finding steady 10-15 point guys.

 

Ron Hainsey (CAR) $0.25

Speaking of steady 10-15 point guys, Ron Hainsey. That is all.

 

Keith Ballard (MIN) $0.25

Also a mediocre defenseman, I'm not even sure if he's a lock to make the Wild out of camp. Most likely, he's 3rd pairing or #7 guy who can put up 10-15 points if he gets in enough games.

 

 

Goaltending:

 

Nashville Predators ($1.25) / Carolina Hurricanes ($0.25) / Pittsburgh Penguins ($0.25)

As a group, these guys give me just 3 no-goalie nights in the regular season, and one lone miss in the playoffs (Game 1 of the Finals), should I be so lucky to make it that far. Nashville should bounce back if Rinne returns to form. They could be a top 10 team. Pittsburgh is an average to slightly above average set. Carolina is a bit of a wild card, but likely in the bottom half. Considering their costs, I'm happy with average goaltending overall.

 

 

Farm Team:

 

Before I begin, it should be noted that up to a half dozen of the following players will be on the opening day roster, and likely that a few of them stick around past the October deadline. These are the guys that improve my forwards quite considerably. If just one or two of them breakout, I could be in much better shape up front.

 

Forwards

 

Mark Scheifele (WPG) $3.00

Dynamic player, very likely to play the full season on the main team. Has the ability to top 60 points. After a slow start, he notched 29 points in his last 39 games, before his season was ended by injury. He'll be a fixture in the top 6 for the Jets and will get plenty of PP time.

 

Mikhail Grigorenko (BUF) $3.00

A number of question marks surround Grigo. He has yet to be able to find his game at the NHL level, and it's not clear whether he'll start in Buffalo or the AHL. He may get some spot call-up duty in October if he makes the team, but barring an offensive outbreak, he's more likely to remain on the farm this season.

 

Teuvo Teravainen (CHI) $3.00

It looks like Chicago plans on starting him in the minors, before moving him into the second line center position next season. He could see some spot time in the NHL this year, though, and has tremendous skill.

 

Sam Bennett (CGY) $3.00

Sounds like Bennett will get a 9 game look, but will have to earn a full time roster spot after that. Like Grigorenko, he may get a look in October, but not likely to see the big club permanently for another season.

 

Evgeny Kuznetsov (WSH) $2.50

Kuzya will start day one on the roster, and barring injury, will never leave it. Sounds like he's going to line up as the number two center for the Caps, and has the skill to put up 60+ points, however, 40-50 sounds like a more reasonable estimate. He did manage to get 9 in 17 last season after coming over from Russia.

 

Beau Bennett (PIT) $2.50

Bennett is starting the year on the injured list, expected to be out until November after getting cut by a skate blade in a freak accident at practice. However, given that he's expected to play on a line with either Sid or Geno, he'll be up on the main roster when he's healthy. I would bank on 30 points if he plays 60 games, though he has a pretty significant upside.

 

Tomas Hertl (SJS) $2.50

Hertl is another who will likely never see the farm again. Looking at 50-60 points this year, though my expectations my be a bit too high given his small sample size from last year.

 

Sebastian Collberg (NYI) $2.50

Will start the season in the AHL, and is likely a year+ away from full time NHL duty.

 

Tomas Jurco (DET) $2.00

Should start with the Wings, likely on a scoring line with Tatar and Sheahan. Has some potential. 15 points in 36 games as a rookie after going 32 in 32 in the AHL. He has 40-50 potential this season, with perhaps a slightly higher long run ceiling. He could be a full time call up if October goes well for him.

 

Martin Frk (DET) $2.00

Frk was almost a cut after spending some time in the ECHL last year. He's not likely to see NHL time this season.

 

Adam Erne (TBL) $2.00

Back to juniors. Has 6 pts in his first 2 games this season.

 

Sonny Milano (CLB) $2.00

He was injured at the prospect tournament, but it'll be back to juniors once he's healthy.

 

Charles Hudon (MTL) $1.50

AHL-bound.

 

Tim Bozon (MTL) $1.50

AHL-bound.

 

Jimmy Vesey (NSH) $1.00

I have absolutely no idea what's going on with Mr. Vesey. Doesn't look like he's on the camp roster anymore, but I have no record of him being cut. He's played 3 years at Harvard, so it's possible he went back. I'll ask around this weekend when I visit Harvard Square.

 

Defensemen

 

Matt Dumba (MIN) 2.00

May make the Wild on opening day as a #6 D-man. He has tremendous potential, however, and we may bring him up if he can help the team.

 

Jack Glover (WPG) 1.00

Long way away.

 

Ryan Sproul (DET) 0.50

On the bubble to start the season with the Wings. Given the depth on D, not likely to see any main club time this year.

 

Ville Pokka (NYI) 0.50

He'll either make the Isles or head back to Finland. Either way, he's a year+ away from the main club here.

[serge 904]

I like this. I'm gonna do it with my team

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

You're gonna get drunk and ask random dudes if they're Jimmy Vesey, aren't you?

 

Great prospect group Zach. I maintain you started your "going for it" a year too early in the overall grand scheme of things, but great future still. Curious to see how our division looks in 3yrs.

[Zach6668 513]

Eh, farm limits forced me up. I realize I'm a mediocre team... I guess I could still sell off. I have a pile of assets. We'll see how it goes! I'm sick of losing though.

 

I guess I don't need to play the farm guys, but I figure I get them at a better deal sooner? I dunno. They're all probably at their peaks anyways. Lol.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Eh, farm limits forced me up. I realize I'm a mediocre team... I guess I could still sell off. I have a pile of assets. We'll see how it goes! I'm sick of losing though.

 

I guess I don't need to play the farm guys, but I figure I get them at a better deal sooner? I dunno. They're all probably at their peaks anyways. Lol.

 

The bolded parts could be very true.

[Zach6668 513]

That doesn't help me. Haha.

[Babying 613]

If you put as much time into your studies as you do your hockey pools, you would be a doctor, lawyer or accountant by now.

[Zach6668 513]

bump for the (reject cup) champs!!!

[serge 904]

Whoa..No posts for the essentially the whole NHL season and now a bump.

[Zach6668 513]

Congrats to Shortstacker Mark Stone on being announced as a finalist for the rookie of the year award.

[Zach6668 513]

Is this a playoff team? I will probably be able to add one great player, or a couple solid players.

 

2015-16 Shortstackers

 

Signings (11):

 

F - Sean Couturier (PHI) - 3.00 / FA (Sign 1 year)

F - Tomas Hertl (SJS) - 3.00 / 3.00 / 3.00 / FA (Sign 3 years)

F - Evgeny Kuznetsov (WSH) - 2.50 / FA (Sign 1 year)

F - Mark Stone (OTT) - 2.00 / 2.50 / 2.75 / FA (Sign 3 years)

F - Tyler Toffoli (LAK) - 1.50 / 1.75 / 2.00 / FA (Sign 3 years)

F - Drew Stafford (WPG) - 1.00 / FA (Sign 1 year)

F - Jason Zucker (MIN) - 0.75 / 0.75 / 0.75 / FA (Sign 3 years)

F - Tyler Graovac (MIN) - 0.75 / FA (Sign 1 year)

 

D - Mike Green (DET) - 6.50 / 7.50 / FA (Sign 2 years)

D - Tobias Enstrom (WPG) - 4.00 / 4.00 / 4.00 / FA (Sign 3 years)

D - Jay Bouwmeester (STL) - 1.25 / 1.25 / 1.25 / FA (Sign 3 years)

 

 

Already Signed (7):

 

F - Nathan MacKinnon (COL) - 6.25 / 7.25 / 8.00 / ... / 16.50 / FA

F - Alex Burmistrov (WPG) - 3.00 / FA

F - Brandon Sutter (VAN) - 2.50 / 2.50 / FA

F - Ondrej Palat (TBL) - 0.75 / 0.75 / FA

 

D - Dennis Wideman (CGY) - 4.75 / 5.25 / FA

D - Duncan Keith (CHI) - 4.00 / FA

D - Nick Holden (COL) - 1.00 / 1.25 / FA

 

 

Exempt (2):

 

Vladimir Sobotka (STL) - 0.75 / FA

Matt Cooke (UFA) - 0.75 / FA

 

 

Dropped Players (7+1):

 

F - Michael Latta (WSH)

F - Dennis Rasmussen (CHI)

 

D - Christian Ehrhoff (LAK)

D - Jordie Benn (DAL)

D - David Warsofsky (PIT)

D - Kyle Cumiskey (CHI)

D - Mark Borowiecki (OTT)

 

G - Carolina Hurricanes A

 

 

Farm Players Released (2):

 

F - Martin Frk (DET)

F - Jack Glover (WPG)

 

 

Farm Players Retained (15):

 

F - Sam Bennett (CGY) - 3.00

F - Mikhail Grigorenko (COL) - 3.00

F - Teuvo Teravainen (CHI) - 3.00

F - Sebastian Collberg (NYI) - 2.50

F - Beau Bennett (PIT) - 2.50

F - Sonny Milano (CBJ) - 2.00

F - Adam Erne (TBL) - 2.00

F - Tomas Jurco (DET) - 2.00

F - Charles Hudon (MTL) - 1.50

F - Tim Bozon (MTL) - 1.50

F - Jimmy Vesey (NSH) - 1.00

 

D - Matt Dumba (MIN) - 3.00

D - Ville Pokka (CHI) - 0.50

D - Mikael Wikstrand (OTT) - 0.50

D - Ryan Sproul (DET) - 0.50

 

 

2015 Draft Picks (5):

 

Round 1 - 8th - 3.00

Round 1 - 17th - 2.50

Round 2 - 28th - 2.00

Round 3 - 48th - 1.00

Round 4 - 68th - 0.50

 

 

 

Money:

 

Cap Space: 63.50

Spent: 49.75

Remaining: 13.75

 

 

18 skaters signed, 1 goalies signed

5 skaters needed, 2 goalies needed

[digitalmonkey 929]

Not as good as...

Big M's

Whalers

 

Better than...

Ingmen

Greaseballs

 

 

[serge 904]

Hope you lose every game

[Zach6668 513]

How about now... Is this a playoff team?

 

 

Blue text = farm player (can be used in October, with potential to be called up permanently)

Red text = reserve list (can be moved to the main roster if necessary)

[Zach6668 513]

If Nathan MacKinnon rounds back into franchise player form, maybe 70-80 pts, Mark Stone keeps his 65 point pace from last year, and a couple of my thousands of forward prospects take a step forward... like Toffoli going 30-30 or Zucker hitting 30 goals, Couturier scoring like he should be capable of, Kuznetsov reaping the rewards of #1 PP time and top 6 minutes, Hertl getting back to his rookie form... etc... This could be a very good team. There could be a tough decision ahead of us at the end of October over what to do with Teuvo Teravainen. He'll probably stay on the farm and re-emerge for the playoffs, in classic Bob fashion, to be a superstar.

 

The defense is already strong, with a very solid top 6 (7 if we decide Dumba should be up full time, 8/9 if Holden or Bouwmeester rebound to .200)....

 

Goaltending is very solid... Pekka Rinne leading the way.

[Zach6668 513]

These are exciting times in Shortstacker land. It should be very interesting to see how this season plays out.

[Zach6668 513]

Ah Crud. Keith out for 4-6 weeks.

 

Time for Enstrom or JBo or Holden to step up and take over.

[Zach6668 513]

Weird goalie decision tonight.

 

Nashville (vs Tampa)

or

Dallas (vs Philly)

 

2 things: the numbers make it closer than you'd think, and I'm facing Nashville goalies.

 

I'm leaning Dallas.

 

Or would you just take goalies out of the equation entirely?

[digitalmonkey 929]

Is your lineup better?

[Zach6668 513]

About the same.

[Zach6668 513]

Actually wait. I think my skaters are about a goal better.