Straight + Flush Draw, Blank On Turn

[AKProdigy 0]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)BB ($46.65)UTG ($12.05)Button ($15.85)Hero ($67.35)Preflop: Hero is SB with J , T . 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, BB calls $1.50.Flop: ($4.25) A , 9 , 8 (2 players)Hero bets $3, BB raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, BB calls $12.Turn: ($40.25) 4 (2 players)Hero?Villain is 30/2/0.6 through 30 hands, nothing significant to speak of. I'm assuming the standard play is to push here?Edit: Converter messed up I think. Changed pot value on river.

[NoBBiR 0]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)BB ($46.65)UTG ($12.05)Button ($15.85)Hero ($67.35)Preflop: Hero is SB with J , T . 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, BB calls $1.50.Flop: ($4.25) A , 9 , 8 (2 players)Hero bets $3, BB raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, BB calls $12.Turn: ($36.25) 4 (2 players)Hero?Villain is 30/2/0.6 through 30 hands, nothing significant to speak of. I'm assuming the standard play is to push here?

I would say yes. His stats are REALLY nitty based on aggression (not PF limp obv), but its only 30 hands so it's pretty likely he could be a 30/15/2 or 30/10/3 over his life. If his stats were over like, 200 hands, I would say c/c and fold river UI, but I shove this like 99% of the time.

[Dictius 0]

Look at stack sizes. BB has $26.65 left, there is $36.25 in the pot.If you need to hit one of your 13 outs to a straight or flush to win, you will win about 28% of the time. Your equity may be lower than this as he may have 2 pair and is stealing some of your outs. But I think his likely hand is a pair of aces.You need about 30% equity to make shoving or calling a shove break even.So calling a shove (which is the only reasonable bet the BB can make given stack sizes) is slightly -ev.Shoving is likely +ev since he may fold some % of the time.Pretty marginal either way though.

[Sheiky 0]

I'd 4-bet to $21 ish on the flop, but as played I'd shove turn

[mtdesmoines 3]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)BB ($46.65)UTG ($12.05) Button ($15.85)Hero ($67.35)Preflop: Hero is SB with J , T . 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, BB calls $1.50.Flop: ($4.25) A , 9 , 8 (2 players)Hero bets $3, BB raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, BB calls $12.Turn: ($40.25) 4 (2 players)Hero?Villain is 30/2/0.6 through 30 hands, nothing significant to speak of. I'm assuming the standard play is to push here?Edit: Converter messed up I think. Changed pot value on river.

He's not drawing, he's got AK or a set, and he's putting you on the FD. He's not folding to a shove, and he's not paying the river. Therefore, this is a simple math question.

[rdtedm 0]

He's not drawing, he's got AK or a set, and he's putting you on the FD. He's not folding to a shove, and he's not paying the river. Therefore, this is a simple math question.

Disagree. Hero can have a set or two pair here as well, given his line. how can a bet/3bet mean he always has a flush draw? Villain has $26 left, and obviously an offsuit four hasnt improved or changed his hand. He'll likely call any shove or bet. Checking seems too weak, although you might get a check behind (small chance). Sticky spot. When in doubt, shovel.

[NoBBiR 0]

He's not drawing, he's got AK or a set, and he's putting you on the FD. He's not folding to a shove, and he's not paying the river. Therefore, this is a simple math question.

It's unlikely given our hand, but he could have a lot of Pair+FD, NFD type hands. He could also have AK/AQ/etc that he is willing to fold the turn.We DO have fold equity against everything but a set. Our hand looks REALLY strong, so I really can't see how we don't shovel.

[mtdesmoines 3]

Disagree. Hero can have a set or two pair here as well, given his line. how can a bet/3bet mean he always has a flush draw? Villain has $26 left, and obviously an offsuit four hasnt improved or changed his hand. He'll likely call any shove or bet. Checking seems too weak, although you might get a check behind (small chance). Sticky spot. When in doubt, shovel.

I think my point is that, given the board and our actions, we can pretty easily be put exactly where we are -- JdTd

[mtdesmoines 3]

I really can't see how we don't shovel.

That's pretty much where I land, too. Once we got the call on the flop, we're going broke with this hand.

[rdtedm 0]

I think my point is that, given the board and our actions, we can pretty easily be put exactly where we are -- JdTd

What I'm saying is that four handed, our range here isn't just 10dJd after the flop. Its A9,A8,89,AA,88,99, diamonds, 10dJd or some crazy one pair overplayed hand. He can't put us squarely on a combo draw, because we play any of the above hands identically a lot.Agree that we can just expect a call and figure out the whether math dictates this is a good shove.