Call The Turn?

[jmbreslin 0]

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha/8, $0.05 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)SB ($3.48)BB ($4.77)UTG ($5.80)Hero ($6.54)CO ($2.58)Button ($8.03)Preflop: Hero is MP with 8, A, A, T. 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.17, CO calls $0.17, Button raises to $0.35, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.18, CO calls $0.18.Flop: ($1.42) 5, 9, K(4 players)BB bets $1.37, Hero calls $1.37, CO folds, Button folds.Turn: ($4.16) 6(2 players)BB bets $3.05 (All-In), Hero ???Decent chance he's betting a set here (possibly top set), but I have the draw to the Aces for top set, the nut flush draw, and a remote chance at a low. Easy call?

[TheBigStack 0]

Ah the never ending omaha 8 question of do you call with the big draw and aces. Im going to make a couple assumptions that with his small raise it means he probably has some sort of decent low proposition, at least a better one than you do, and he has an ace in his hand. With this in mind, the big question is what are his shots at the high end. If he has an AK34 type of hand your ahead, winning the high about 75% of the time and a 2/1 or better fav to scoop, but he will get half the pot almost half the time (your low chances here are small and he would likely get the high if you hit your low). Against the nightmare situation of him having something like AKK2 (a set and better low), these odds now take a huge reverse and he becomes the big fav. He be getting the high end 75% of the time, the low end 1/3 or so and having a scoop chance of better than 6/1.Against a two pair hand (which i would guess to be K's and 5's for your villian) things get more interesting for you but its still not good. Your close to 60/40 with him as the favorite (depending on how may of your flush cards he has) on the high end, but he is a 2/1 fav to scoop you now, if he has a better low. He also fishes out the low over 1/3 of the time once again. If he has a worse low, or no low, then things are more interesting. You have a lot of outs in this situation to scoop the high (The 7-9 clubs, the three 7's, and the 6 cards that pair the board that he doesnt have). Because you'd be all-in you wouldnt have to worry about any more bets, which is good since you wouldnt really know which board pairing cards helped and which didnt. I think this is the key situation because you are getting the best of the odds on your call , and there is a good chance this is what he might have. He's ahead 60/40 for the high, but you will suck out the low 40% of the time and are a slight favorite to scoop.If he has aces with a better low, its about a push. You'll tie the high about 70% of time, with you winning it most of the remaining 30%. But he is gonna get the low 1/3 of the time too, though you're the scoop favorite at 3/1. If he has no low draw and aces your a the massive favorite. Again its around a 70% tie, but the times its not you get all the money.So we have 6 senarios for your villian more or lessAces with no low, like AAQJ (your 70/30 about on total equity)Top Pair with good low, AK23 (your about 66/33 on equity)Aces with low, AA24 (50/50 shoot out on equity)Two Pair with no low, AK5Q (50/50 again on E)Two Pair with better low, AK52 (30/70 dog on E)Top Set with low, AKK4 (20/80 dog on E).It seems your decision rests on your feelings of being up against a set. If he has a set your toast, its make a flush or maximum damage. Even without a low he would be riding as a 60/40 fav. So if you really think he has one sac out and dump it. Otherwise it seems your getting about the right odds to make a call here.

[antistuff 0]

raise the flop.

[jmbreslin 0]

Great analysis, BigStack, thanks. Based on how most people play at these stakes, I would have to say he is much more likely to have the nightmare scenario hand of something like AKK4 (and possibly even AKK2). PF reraises aren't that common at this level, and usually indicate a strong 2-way hand. The fact that he followed it with an almost pot-bet on that flop confirms for me that he's connected somehow with his high potential because he's leading out into a field of 3 players on a non-low flop. Players at these stakes just don't play this way with mediocre hands. Even maniac players will typically back off when they're OOP against 3 villains with a missed or mediocre hand, and he was by no means maniacal.Based on this read and your analysis, it looks like an easy fold rather than an easy call. The only other holding I could possibly put in his range is something like AK52, which still has me as a huge dog.

[antistuff 0]

raise the flop.

[ahosang 0]

raise the flop.

[jmbreslin 0]

Why?

[ahosang 0]

There you go antistuff. You said it twice - I just shouted it a bit. I'd be interested in antistuff's or any other perspective or argument.For me, a call is terrible poker in this scenario. Raise or fold - a concept of pot-limit poker we discussed at length in threads about 2 years old. Search with my name if you like(PLO forum as well).You don't always raise-or-fold; in fact often in PLO8, a smooth-call is sweet for some reason(usually pull tactics). But that's usually when the board is low or 2 to a low. Here:1) stack sizes mean you can almost take your value for showdown now2) medium-large pot with fold equity>0%3) folds other draws and possibly increases your outs from NFD + Set to 2-pairs to runner-runner str8s and runner-runner lows4) You have more outs against 2-pair etc - villain could have wrap etcJust raise and worry about it later. There is no turn where you know you are dead unless you know 100% he has set. If you 100% fear set, why call??

[jmbreslin 0]

Thanks for the explanation. I wasn't around 2 years ago, so I'll have to do some searching.Could you clarify what you mean by pull tactics? The way I understand that concept, pulling relates to situations when you have hands that have value but not enough to drive, such as mediocre 2-way hands or nut low only draws. Is that correct?I see what you mean about raising or folding on the flop in this situation. If I put him on a set, I'm in bad shape and shouldn't be continuing; but if his range is wider than a set then I'm in much better shape and should be pushing the action. Right?

[antistuff 0]

if he has a set and no low you have the odds to get it all in with him.a flush draw with a runner runner low is like 60/40 against a set with no low.people are too set paranoid. aces + flush draw on high board is an excuse to get it all in as a dog and gamble (im only half sarcastic). ----------------pull tactics...the person behind limps and you raise preflop with a235 ds. a few people call. the flop comes 46j with two to your suit with the ace and one of your other suit. the person who limped bets the pot into. you still have four people left to act. raising here would be retarded.if you had the nut low already made you might raise to try to shut other nut lows out (i wouldn't recomend doing this very often though). if it was the suit that wasn't to my ace i would raise there.

[jmbreslin 0]

if he has a set and no low you have the odds to get it all in with him.a flush draw with a runner runner low is like 60/40 against a set with no low.

He did flat call a raise and reraise PF OOP, so I'd have to give him credit for a two-way hand. I don't think he's playing KK or 99 with no low potential here.

[antistuff 0]

He did flat call a raise and reraise PF OOP, so I'd have to give him credit for a two-way hand. I don't think he's playing KK or 99 with no low potential here.

i would rather have like kkqt or 99tj there than 23kk, although i (and most people) are playing all three of them. if you assume he is playing a coordinated hand he is more likely than not to be high only if he has a set.

[kaisersoze12 0]

Raise the flop? The money should've been in before that. Re-raise pre-flop. Shove all that money in.

[antistuff 0]

Raise the flop? The money should've been in before that. Re-raise pre-flop. Shove all that money in.

doesn't get enough in for me.

[thret 0]

In penny PLO8 games people will call anything preflop with A2, KK, sometimes A3 etc (actually, they do it in 5/10 also!). You should never ever slow play good aces (as opposed to AA99 rainbow for example) by flat calling a reraise, just stick as much in as you can preflop. That way when the flop comes K95 as it ALWAYS DOES you are HU and can stick in a good sized raise. You always want to be HU with this hand.If I lost my mind and somehow got to that flop with your hand and two players behind me, I would fold on the flop. Your best case is being up against two pair with a backdoor low draw. When 4 players go to the flop, it has been reraised preflop, and you have AA - there are exactly ZERO aces left in this deck. You have a flush draw, no redraw, no implied odds, two players behind, easy fold. What if this guy has a set and two low clubs? What card do you want to see on the turn? Qc, Jc, nothing else. 9c buries you. Anything lower gives him 15 outs for low in addition to his 4 (if two pair) or 10 (if set) to scoop.It looks like a good flop, but you have to consider what cards you actually _want_ to see on the turn. You have two good outs, both of which play out like this: check-bet-fold. No implied odds.Of course you can invent hands that you have dominated here, but PLO8 just isn't a game where creative ranges are rewarded. If he has QJT8 with a flush draw or some such and is pushing it into three players, good luck to him.

[jmbreslin 0]

In penny PLO8 games people will call anything preflop with A2, KK, sometimes A3 etc (actually, they do it in 5/10 also!). You should never ever slow play good aces (as opposed to AA99 rainbow for example) by flat calling a reraise, just stick as much in as you can preflop. That way when the flop comes K95 as it ALWAYS DOES you are HU and can stick in a good sized raise. You always want to be HU with this hand.

This is a bit tricky here. CO has already called my raise and BB has flat called both my raise and the reraise. Do you think there is a decent enough chance of getting HU with another reraise here? The last thing I want to do is bloat this pot and still end up with 2 or 3 opponents on the flop.

[thret 0]

This is a bit tricky here. CO has already called my raise and BB has flat called both my raise and the reraise. Do you think there is a decent enough chance of getting HU with another reraise here? The last thing I want to do is bloat this pot and still end up with 2 or 3 opponents on the flop.

If you flat call preflop you have to play perfectly post flop, which is not as easy as you may think. If you jam it preflop - which is correct all of the time - you have a greater than zero chance of thinning the field. Every player who folds increases your pot equity, but even if they all call you still have the best pot odds. It's only a bad situation if you are very deep and OOP - which is the situation calling creates. By calling you are deep with resepect to the pot, multiway and out of position. Also your opportunity to thin the field and win preflop is gone.