gEM 0 Posted January 15, 2008 Share Posted January 15, 2008 The odds of getting kk 1 in 221 handsthe odds of getting kk and opponent has aa 1 in 250 (heads up)250 x 221 = 55250so you will get kk beat preflop heads up every 55k hands? seems wrong lol.. Link to post Share on other sites
Sheiky 0 Posted January 15, 2008 Share Posted January 15, 2008 Why is the odds of him getting AA 1-250 when the odds of getting KK are 1-221?If you do this without card replacement, then the chances of him having aces AFTER you've been dealt kings should increase slightly because there two less cards in the deck which aren't aces. Link to post Share on other sites
gEM 0 Posted January 15, 2008 Author Share Posted January 15, 2008 no the odds of KK being dominated preflop HU is 0.4% that translates to one in 250. so every 250 times you get kk which happens every 221 hands you will be dominated by aa so 221x250 55k unless im wrong thats why i made the post to get some1 to check the math Link to post Share on other sites
foteeninches 0 Posted January 15, 2008 Share Posted January 15, 2008 no the odds of KK being dominated preflop HU is 0.4% that translates to one in 250. so every 250 times you get kk which happens every 221 hands you will be dominated by aa so 221x250 55k unless im wrong thats why i made the post to get some1 to check the mathprob (you KK and opp AA) = prob (opp AA | you KK) * prob you (KK) = (12 / (50 * 49)) * (1/221) = 1 / (50 * 4.0833 * 221) = 1 / 45120.465 = will happen about 1 in every 45120 heads up hands.prob of aces vs kings heads up = 1 in every 22560 handsyou screwed up your math in that it is .004898 ( 1 / (50 * 4.083333)) that you are dominated when holding KK. Link to post Share on other sites
Sheiky 0 Posted January 15, 2008 Share Posted January 15, 2008 no the odds of KK being dominated preflop HU is 0.4% that translates to one in 250. so every 250 times you get kk which happens every 221 hands you will be dominated by aa so 221x250 55k unless im wrong thats why i made the post to get some1 to check the mathYeh you're wrong.Once the two kings have been taken out of the deck, the chances of the other guy getting pocket aces are 4/50*3/49 which is 12/2450 which = 1 to 204 Link to post Share on other sites
gEM 0 Posted January 15, 2008 Author Share Posted January 15, 2008 Yeh you're wrong.Once the two kings have been taken out of the deck, the chances of the other guy getting pocket aces are 4/50*3/49 which is 12/2450 which = 1 to 204no nobody gets their hand dealt first Link to post Share on other sites
gEM 0 Posted January 15, 2008 Author Share Posted January 15, 2008 you screwed up your math in that it is .004898 ( 1 / (50 * 4.083333)) that you are dominated when holding KK.i said it was 0.4% thats what you came up with too 0.4%-= 0.004btw i got dealt kk heads up 3 times in 250 hands and each time he had aa what are the odds of that Link to post Share on other sites
foteeninches 0 Posted January 16, 2008 Share Posted January 16, 2008 i said it was 0.4% thats what you came up with too 0.4%-= 0.004btw i got dealt kk heads up 3 times in 250 hands and each time he had aa what are the odds of thatno youre wrong. I got .004898 Link to post Share on other sites
foteeninches 0 Posted January 16, 2008 Share Posted January 16, 2008 no nobody gets their hand dealt firstthats not what he said. To calculate the total AND probability you have to utilize the GIVEN probability. and the GIVEN probability is with the two Kings out of the deck because you are GIVEN that the opponent has kings. you ask for the math and yet dont accept the correct answer and explanation when its given to you. good one. Link to post Share on other sites
psujohn 0 Posted January 16, 2008 Share Posted January 16, 2008 Posts like these should immediately be moved to the bad beats forum since it's never about the math. It's always about complaining that he got KK and ran into AA. Link to post Share on other sites
Frez 0 Posted January 16, 2008 Share Posted January 16, 2008 prob (you KK and opp AA) = prob (opp AA | you KK) * prob you (KK) = (12 / (50 * 49)) * (1/221) = 1 / (50 * 4.0833 * 221) = 1 / 45120.465 = will happen about 1 in every 45120 heads up hands.prob of aces vs kings heads up = 1 in every 22560 handsyou screwed up your math in that it is .004898 ( 1 / (50 * 4.083333)) that you are dominated when holding KK.I agree with all this, including the 0.004898 which pretty much is 204 to 1 as Sheiky says. I just don't understand how you did the math down to 45120-1 heads up, then in the next line say it is 22560-1 heads up. You were right the first time, why did you cut it in half...Ah, I see. 45120-1 is the chance you are the guy with KK, but there is an equal chance you will be the guy with AA, so overall the chances of AA vs KK is 22560-1. Link to post Share on other sites
bigcoled 1 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 i said it was 0.4% thats what you came up with too 0.4%-= 0.004btw i got dealt kk heads up 3 times in 250 hands and each time he had aa what are the odds of thatThe same odds 3 times.....right? Link to post Share on other sites
AimHigher 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 Not to complicate things, but you have to take the number of players at the table into consideration, surely?Oops, edit: Just saw you said heads up. Link to post Share on other sites
cst3e 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 qEM, what site did this occur on, where you were dealt KK against AA three times in 250 hands? fulltilt? Link to post Share on other sites
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