i disagree with quiz 7 analysis

[hudday48 0]

I figured this would never get read if i put it under the quiz 7 answer so hear it goesI did some equity calculations assuming these are the hands Antonio would push with. (all aces kings most queens and jacks)AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q4s, JTs-J6s, T9s-T8s, 98s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q5o, JTo-J7o, T9o-T8o, 98o has 59.9698 % equity agaisnt87s 40.0302 % Since you're getting 1.4:1 pot odds when you're a 1.5:1 dog agaisnt the range I've given him (according to my equity calculations) its a fold right.Unless you thought this hand would change your Tournament Equity significantly it is still a fold. This is what really interests me, how do you go about calculating how different chipcounts will effect your ability to win the tournament.Daniel what hand range did you have Antonio on or did you have alternate reasoning in coming to your decision that it is correct to call.Thanks in advance

[hudday48 0]

FYI this was done in over 4,328,704,512 simulated games so i figure it's pretty accurate :wink:

[Absolute 0]

There is a thread for this.

[Bertuzzi 0]

Straight up man.......Sometimes you have to go against all odds and take chances..... do you honestly think all the great poker players do everything by numbers and odds???No..... sometimes you have to make a move and sometimes you have to make a stand despite all odds!Man..... I can't beleive you even posted that non-sense trying to sound smart. It's truly sad.

[G0lfa 0]

Daniel, suited connectors are your thing, they never let you down... at least i've never seen them let you down. HOW DID YOU FOLD THOSE GEMS??

[packattack 0]

Daniel, suited connectors are your thing, they never let you down... at least i've never seen them let you down. HOW DID YOU FOLD THOSE GEMS??

There's a difference between getting in for a cheap flop or raising on the button and outplaying people after the flop and committing your whole stack with them preflop.

[hudday48 0]

Straight up man.......Sometimes you have to go against all odds and take chances..... do you honestly think all the great poker players do everything by numbers and odds???

Do you think they ignore math? i recognize the need to gamble but this situation is an obvious math calculation. Do you think all the great poker players are sitting there thinking (how do i feel). They are thinking about MATH.

No..... sometimes you have to make a move and sometimes you have to make a stand despite all odds!

That is hypocritical, and I look forward to playing against you. In the situation described the only way of finding the correct answer is through odds when you don't have a read on them.

Man..... I can't beleive you even posted that non-sense trying to sound smart. It's truly sad

(Sarcasm warning)Yeah math is for geeks? What i posted was me trying to sound smart?What i posted was fact and not anything else. (I'm sorry if all the numbers offended you :shock: )Well thanks but this isn't really complicated that's why i posted this. What is really complicated is how Daniel determined afterwards that he needed to gamble here because of tournament equity. I'll let you in on a secret, all good poker players are smart. I just want in on how he thinks.

[Bertuzzi 0]

Hahahaha.... you all of a sudden just think I am not a good player. You know what, I am not gonna be a monkey and list off all the games I play in and how big my bankroll is and how many tourneys I place money in each month. but..... I know math and I know odds.... you know its almost 1 in 650 000 to hit a royal flush..... doesn't mean I fold KQ suited. Your also 120 to 1 to flop I flush but I still play A-10 suited and hope for it. Man you have no idea.Oh, and you look forward to playing with me??? We can arrange that, I will be in Vegas for the better part of the fall/winter season. See you there. P.S. I don't want to play 3/6 or 5/10 with you.

[packattack 0]

Hahahaha.... you all of a sudden just think I am not a good player. You know what, I am not gonna be a monkey and list off all the games I play in and how big my bankroll is and how many tourneys I place money in each month. but..... I know math and I know odds.... you know its almost 1 in 650 000 to hit a royal flush..... doesn't mean I fold KQ suited. Your also 120 to 1 to flop I flush but I still play A-10 suited and hope for it. Man you have no idea.

I'm not defending the other guy or anything, but what the hell does that have to do with anything. The guy is simply stating a point...that's what's wrong with these huge forums...there's so many pricks on the sites that just can't let a person speak their opinion and not get harrassed by it. If you disagree with someone, by all means go nuts...but do you have to make them feel like their retarded?

[G0lfa 0]

SHAWSHANK RULESS!!!

[LooseCannon 0]

Unless you thought this hand would change your Tournament Equity significantly it is still a fold. This is what really interests me' date=' how do you go about calculating how different chipcounts will effect your ability to win the tournament./quote']In general, one's chances of winning a tournament are equal to the percentage of the total chips in play one holds. In this case, Daniel was outchipped 7200-72800. If he folds, he will be down 6000-74000. Folding here drops him from a 9% to a 7.5% chance to win, while calling and winning moves him up to an 18% chance of winning.Let's assume that Daniel has a 40% chance of winning this hand. If he calls, he has a 60% chance of having a 0% chance to win after this hand and a 40% chance of having an 18% chance to win. Doing this math, this leaves him with a 7.2% chance to win, which makes it very close. Daniel, in fact, needs merely a 42% chance on this hand to improve his chances of winning the tournament by calling. Consider also that Antonio may choose to limp in the small blind with strong hands like AA, KK, AK, or maybe even any ace for the purpose of deception, so the range of hands you mention could be wrong and a call could be correct, using your math. If Antonio, a known aggressive and creative player, could shove in here with even more hands here, and a call would be correct.Of course, it's tough to do this kind of an equity calculation at the table. Daniel did the next best thing, which is take a sample of possible hands. The hands in his answer average out to a 43% chance of winning, which is probably reasonably close to the actual answer. He was correct that he folded in a coinflip situation.The case has been made that while a healthy stack can afford to pass up coin flips, a small stack often cannot because it runs the real risk of not having that good a chance in the rest of the tournament.

[DanielNegreanu 141]

I figured this would never get read if i put it under the quiz 7 answer so hear it goesI did some equity calculations assuming these are the hands Antonio would push with. (all aces kings most queens and jacks)AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q4s, JTs-J6s, T9s-T8s, 98s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q5o, JTo-J7o, T9o-T8o, 98o has 59.9698 % equity agaisnt87s 40.0302 % Since you're getting 1.4:1 pot odds when you're a 1.5:1 dog agaisnt the range I've given him (according to my equity calculations) its a fold right.Unless you thought this hand would change your Tournament Equity significantly it is still a fold. This is what really interests me, how do you go about calculating how different chipcounts will effect your ability to win the tournament.Daniel what hand range did you have Antonio on or did you have alternate reasoning in coming to your decision that it is correct to call.Thanks in advance

Oh you just don't have enough hands in there. Do you think he would fold 8-6 suited? Or how about even 7-8 suited? Once you add in all of the hands he would raise with that I have dominated it I think it sways it towards a call.

[hudday48 0]

Thanks for the polite reply loosecannon and that other guy (Dan something? :wink: )Loosecannon i think Antonio would have to push with AA's or his other premium hands because there are so many hands that Dan has to call with, and a limp would be pretty suspicious when Dan is this shortstacked.I tried again with a broader range.Hand 1: 58.5133 % [ 00.57 00.02 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J4s, T9s-T7s, 98s-97s, 87s-86s, 76s-75s, 65s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q2o, JTo-J5o, T9o-T8o, 98o-97o, 87o-86o }Hand 2: 41.4867 % [ 00.40 00.02 ] { 87s }In this situation you are a 1.41:1 odds against this rangeSo it is still proper odds to fold to make it positive ev. But if i added in more low suited connectors then this would easily sway the decisionThis is unfortunately still a fold though using loosecannons method of determining likelihood to win. Unless i add even more low suited connectors.calling gives tournament equity of (18*0.415)= 7.47folding gives equity of 7.5 (because that is the percentage of chips you have)This is a very marginal difference.In this sim a call is justifiedHand 1: 58.1493 % [ 00.56 00.02 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J4s, T9s-T7s, 98s-97s, 87s-86s, 76s-75s, 65s, 54s, 43s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q3o, JTo-J5o, T9o-T7o, 98o-97o, 87o-86o, 76o }Hand 2: 41.8507 % [ 00.40 00.02 ] { 87s }Thanks for the replies though I still dont think this is an easy choice either way.Also to Bertuzzi i neither of us wanted to start a flame war so lets just agree to disagree.

[Petoria 0]

One comment to Daniel, you said in the original quiz that he didnt want to double you up. So then yes, i think he would fold 8-6 and cards of that type.

[Guest]

I hope this isn't beating a dead horse, and I hope this hasn't been stated in the original answer thread since I skimmed it but didn't read every response in there.The math analysis is right on, but the conclusions being drawn from it are wrong. In this quiz, we're out in 7 hands if we fold this. If we're getting 40% against the range of hands Antonio pushes with, that's high enough to think "I might not see this good of a situation again before I go home". You have to decide whether this is a good enough situation to make a stand with, and the math behind it would say that it clearly is exactly that. I'm not going to run simulations on DN's possible next 7 hands vs. Antonio's possible next 7 hands, and try to figure out if the odds say he'll find himself in a better than 40% situation in the rest of his tournament life. That simulation is beyond my abilities, to be sure. I will say that the EV analysis of the call in this situation is much less valuable of a tool than it would be in a cash game, or earlier in a tournament setting. With the end of the "closed system" that this tournament represents coming quite rapidly, our standards for calling must invariably drop. Instead of getting the best of it, we have to find the best of a bad situation, and I honestly believe that this hand could very well be just that. Furthermore, what benefit do we gain by waiting 2 more hands, getting our stack down to 4k, and then pushing on an A or a K? Even IF we win that situation, we're simply back to where we are right now. You have to make a move when the math isn't too bad, and when success will have some impact on the outcome of the tournament. I think it's not as tough of a call as some people believe, and I certainly don't believe it's a fold.

[Abbaddabba 0]

I'm not defending the other guy or anything, but what the hell does that have to do with anything. The guy is simply stating a point...that's what's wrong with these huge forums...there's so many pricks on the sites that just can't let a person speak their opinion and not get harrassed by it. If you disagree with someone, by all means go nuts...but do you have to make them feel like their retarded?

I doubt the original poster feels retarded. Bertuzzi, on the other hand ... id say there's a pretty good chance that he IS retarded.