B&m: Hello My Name Is Simon

[MasterLJ 0]

$2/$5 NLHero [CO] ($280):Button ($240):BB ($150):I have 8 6 I limp, Button obviously limps, SB completes, BB checks:Flop: 10 2 9 BB checks, I check, Button bets $50, BB raises all-in.My read on the button is that he's got a strong hand and he will call.My thoughts are that I'm really not afraid of any hand, even T T. I've got one trump card of 7 , as well as the obvious draws, and if Button calls as well I'm getting odds all day long. At the table I made myself a 45% favorite to win.I call. Button pushes all-in. I call.

[krup24 0]

$2/$5 NLHero [CO] ($280):Button ($240):BB ($150):I have 8 6 I limp, Button obviously limps, SB completes, BB checks:Flop: 10 2 9 BB checks, I check, Button bets $50, BB raises all-in.My read on the button is that he's got a strong hand and he will call.My thoughts are that I'm really not afraid of any hand, even T T. I've got one trump card of 7 , as well as the obvious draws, and if Button calls as well I'm getting odds all day long. At the table I made myself a 45% favorite to win.I call. Button pushes all-in. I call.

Boy would it suck if someone has a higher flush draw cause then ur drawing to 4 cards

[MasterLJ 0]

Boy would it suck if someone has a higher flush draw cause then ur drawing to 4 cards

Yes sir it would. I obviously tanked this one for some time before making my decision, and obviously considered that possibility. The button is way over-betting the pot and BB is jamming, that screams, "I have a huge hand and I don't want you to draw."

[krup24 0]

The reason I say this is because i posted a hand like this a while back where I had and OESFD Q high and had 2 players in the pot with me and one had a lower flush draw. I ended up making the nut straight on the river and all the money went in on the flop other player had TPTK.But if someone here has a set our 2 is dead and a blank on the turn makes that diamond dead as well. I think you are bordering being reckless here regardless of whether you won the pot or not.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Way to totally rip off one of my thread titles. :)As for the hand, I'm with krup...too worried that we're against a bigger flush draw and something like a set or two pair. If we had something like KdQd/KdJd, I'd feel much better about it.

[MasterLJ 0]

The reason I say this is because i posted a hand like this a while back where I had and OESFD Q high and had 2 players in the pot with me and one had a lower flush draw. I ended up making the nut straight on the river and all the money went in on the flop other player had TPTK.But if someone here has a set our 2 is dead and a blank on the turn makes that diamond dead as well. I think you are bordering being reckless here regardless of whether you won the pot or not.

I'm not going to post results on this one, not even in white. I think this is an extremely marginal situation anyway you look at it. One of the reasons I decided to get involved was because of how this game works... a large stack helps you make SOOO much money in these types of game in this casino specifically. Besides, I also figured that a lot of the outs for the boat were taken with 2 people betting heavy.

Way to totally rip off one of my thread titles. :)As for the hand, I'm with krup...too worried that we're against a bigger flush draw and something like a set or two pair. If we had something like KdQd/KdJd, I'd feel much better about it.

Are you looking at my bum?Didn't know I was ripping it off =P.If I had QdJd or KdQd I wouldn't even think about this, or post it here. Especially if I had QdJd.

[CobaltBlue 662]

I'm not going to post results on this one, not even in white. I think this is an extremely marginal situation anyway you look at it. One of the reasons I decided to get involved was because of how this game works... a large stack helps you make SOOO much money in these types of game in this casino specifically. Besides, I also figured that a lot of the outs for the boat were taken with 2 people betting heavy.

Point taken about gambling to get a big stack. If you're approaching it along those lines, it's fine. I think you're being a little too generous with your winning percentage though. I threw it in Stove and came out with this...Range for button and SB:JJ-99,22,AdJd,ATs,Ad8d,Ad2d,KdQd,KdJd,QJs,Qd8d,J8s,T9s,T2s,ATo,QJo,J8o,T9o,T2oButton & SB: 32.4%You: 35.2%So, you're marginally +EV.

Didn't know I was ripping it off =P.

http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...topic=55255&hl=

[MasterLJ 0]

Point taken about gambling to get a big stack. If you're approaching it along those lines, it's fine. I think you're being a little too generous with your winning percentage though. I threw it in Stove and came out with this...Range for button and SB:JJ-99,22,AdJd,ATs,Ad8d,Ad2d,KdQd,KdJd,QJs,Qd8d,J8s,T9s,T2s,ATo,QJo,J8o,T9o,T2oButton & SB: 32.4%You: 35.2%So, you're marginally +EV.http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...topic=55255&hl=

Lol, we even hyphenated the same.It was love at first hyphen.And yes, I was being too generous with my win percentage. 45% is a good estimate if all they have is tptk, but when you account for outs to the boat and the chances of that hitting, you have less equity.I won't post results, but my equity ended up being 38.5%... again, very marginal.

[Dratj 0]

Just fold it and pick a better spot to put your money in. i think it's kind of like putting all your money in preflop with QQ and you are hoping you are up against AK. I've been guilty of calling or pushing all in with flush draws and I find that I have to stop doing that. It's just -EV in the long term.

[MasterLJ 0]

Just fold it and pick a better spot to put your money in. i think it's kind of like putting all your money in preflop with QQ and you are hoping you are up against AK. I've been guilty of calling or pushing all in with flush draws and I find that I have to stop doing that. It's just -EV in the long term.

I'm just running out the door, but the interesting question that needs answering to figure out if this is long term +EV or -EV is how many times do we not have to be against the higher flush draw for this to be +EV? In other words, if we are against the higher flush draw 1 time of X we break even, where X is the variable. Obviously if X is high enough it the slight equity edge we have compensates over the long run and is +EV.

[CobaltBlue 662]

I'm just running out the door, but the interesting question that needs answering to figure out if this is long term +EV or -EV is how many times do we not have to be against the higher flush draw for this to be +EV? In other words, if we are against the higher flush draw 1 time of X we break even, where X is the variable. Obviously if X is high enough it the slight equity edge we have compensates over the long run and is +EV.

The real problem with this hand is that one of the deciding factors is meta-game EV. This is definitely going to affect our table image and you suggest that it's quite +EV to have a big stack in this game. It's very hard to quantify mathematically though.

[MasterLJ 0]

The real problem with this hand is that one of the deciding factors is meta-game EV. This is definitely going to affect our table image and you suggest that it's quite +EV to have a big stack in this game. It's very hard to quantify mathematically though.

My meta-game is borked, I get WAY too much respect. I'm learning how to make money off that though