AKProdigy 0 Posted April 21, 2007 Share Posted April 21, 2007 PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)MP (t3720)CO (t11370)Button (t7135)SB (t10830)Hero (t4460)UTG (t6030)Preflop: Hero is BB with K , J . 3 folds, Button raises to t1800, SB calls t1500, Hero ?Easy fold? No real reads here. Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted April 21, 2007 Share Posted April 21, 2007 Fold unless button has been very LAG although even then I don't love shoving. Link to post Share on other sites
NEtwowilldo 0 Posted April 21, 2007 Share Posted April 21, 2007 I don't really think your fold equity is pretty borderline here. I would just let it go and see if you can pick up a decent enough hand to shove with in the next few hands, as you'll have a better chance of picking up the blinds that way.In this spot, you're only getting called if you're crushed or 5/6 dog IMO. I'm about 80% to fold here, but a stop and go might work as well. Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted April 21, 2007 Share Posted April 21, 2007 I don't really think your fold equity is pretty borderline here. I would just let it go and see if you can pick up a decent enough hand to shove with in the next few hands, as you'll have a better chance of picking up the blinds that way.In this spot, you're only getting called if you're crushed or 5/6 dog IMO. I'm about 80% to fold here, but a stop and go might work as well.I'm not understanding you. You seem to be saying that both:1) We don't have much fold equity, and2) We only get called when we are crushed.Those two things suggest that the button's raising range is quite tight, and so is the SB's calling range.If someone will only calll a shove with AA but raises any two cards, I'm happy shoving any two cards. When I get called I'm crushed, but I have enough fold equity to counteract it.If we have (say) 20% fold equity, we only need to be about 30% when called (I'm guessing here, but I think it will be fairly near the mark).If our fold equity is anywhere approaching ~40% we only need to be something stupidly low like 10% when called to shove here.I can go both ways on this, but I think folding is marginally better against unknown opponents. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted April 21, 2007 Share Posted April 21, 2007 Its a tough decision without reads. If your K or J is counterfeited youre about 19% to win against hands split between AK or AJ and 88-QQIf your K and J arent counterfeited, and their cards are split between an Ax and 88-QQ youre about 30% to winIf your K and J arent counterfeited and they counterfeit each other's Ace youre about 40% to win.If this were bubble near significant money I would fold, but otherwise Im very tempted to push. The 20% is the least likely of the 3 situations and the combination of the 19% and 40% is probably weighted enough toward the 40% that overall youre +tEV, and as a smallish stack even more +$EV.Add in some small fold equity and this isnt a terrible time to gamble. Link to post Share on other sites
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