1010 Cap Game

[Lavitz 0]

Game is cap, which defintley changes things. Villian is 36/12/3.45.Full Tilt Poker Game #1502446752: Table Olympus (6 max) - $1/$2 - $60 Cap No Limit Hold'em - 16:28:24 ET - 2006/12/30Seat 1: 85phoenix ($107.80)Seat 2: KeepingMyDayJob ($73)Seat 3: blackthirteen ($165.95)Seat 4: Shag469 ($102.65)Seat 5: bigpaulie ($46.05)Seat 6: cudd517 ($87.50)KeepingMyDayJob posts the small blind of $1blackthirteen posts the big blind of $2The button is in seat #1*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to cudd517 [Td Ts]Shag469 foldsbigpaulie calls $2cudd517 raises to $885phoenix foldsKeepingMyDayJob foldsblackthirteen foldsbigpaulie calls $6*** FLOP *** [5h Jc Js]bigpaulie checkscudd517 bets $14bigpaulie calls $14*** TURN *** [5h Jc Js] [Qd]bigpaulie checkscudd517 checks*** RIVER *** [5h Jc Js Qd] [Qh]bigpaulie bets $10cudd517 ?Such a small river bet. Obviously any paint beats me but he only has to be bluffing here one out of about four times to make this profitable. Small PP or a 5 would realize firing is the only way to take this down. Im a little worried about A5.

[Head_Trauma 0]

You are considering a raise right? Or a call? I thought you were asking whether to raise or not, but then you said you were worried about A5. Worried that if you raise, A5 will call? Hm, just checked stacks, so his stack ain't that big, you could only raise him another $14, which would almost never make him fold. So now I assume you are wondering whether to call... I think given that he had only $24 left on the turn, I think you shoulda pushed it then. As played, I don't think yer T kicker is any good. Without a specific read on this guy (beyond the PT stats, which don't tell ya if he's bluffing) I toss it.

[trystero 0]

Fold. You may even have him beat as he's played this hand exactly like a lower pocket pair (open limps to see a cheap flop, calls your c/bet on a dry board, checks turn, leads river with a counterfeited hand). But you just can't call with a ten kicker, not when a million hands beat you and you've likely got little FE against his remaining stack.I don't like pushing turn. I like how you played it, keeping the pot manageable on a dry board and preparing to call most river bets or value betting if checked to you. The river card just sucked. Headtrauma makes a good point though; villain doesn't have much left, so you could just push turn and hope for loose calls from 22-99 and ace high hands.

[cheetaking 0]

The key to this pot, I believe, is that the villain's stats. He is 36% VP$IP, and on the short stack, which means that he's a losing loose player. That means that he is calling your pre-flop raise with a lot of hands, and unfortunately, lots of them beat you on the river. There's no apparent reason for us to believe that he is smart enough to play a completely varied game, because of his low chips and apparently bad statistics, so we can definitely make generalized assumptions. The pot odds are 4.7:1, though, so we'll have to be pretty sure if we're going to fold.PRE-FLOP:Limp/Call from 2nd position. With his PFR% at twelve, we can probably assume that he's not making this move with hands like A/K, A/Q, A/J, or pocket tens through queens. He would, however, make this play if he was being tricky with kings or aces, so not all of the top hands are eliminated. This seems very likely to be a pair of some sort, because the limp/call is VERY standard behavior for this type of hand. Mid-range suited connectors are a slight possibility, but would be slightly strange behavior for a limp/call. So my pre-flop hand range on him is pocket twos through nines, kings, aces, J/10 through K/Q, every ace between A/2 and A/10, or suited connectors between 6/7 and 9/10.FLOP:The texture of this flop is VERY favorable for you. The only problem with it is that it is very obviously favorable, which makes people more likely to think you're bluffing and therefore more likely to call with nothing.Another check/call from him. Since we're assuming that he's not a pro, and therefore does not have the skill to flat call with a crap hand with the intention of faking a slow-play to set up a later bluff, he has to have something in order to make this call. So let's analyze whether or not he'd play the hands we put him on before the flop, going from the top down.Pocket Aces or Kings: Possibly. If he slow-played them before the flop, he could concievably just limp/call again, either trying to trap you or just because he's afraid you have the jack. It is looking a bit more unlikely now, but it still might be the case.A/10, A/9, A/8, Q/10, K/10: Possibly. I won't eliminate them yet, because the flop texture is very un-scary and loose players often make donk calls on the flop when that is the case.A/5: Yes. This one fits, because he's now got 2 pair and the board is very safe. The initial check could just be beacuse he's kind of passive and prefers calling.A/2 through A/7: Very Unlikely. Almost no way anyone's calling your large bet with as crappy of an ace as this.K/Q: Somewhat more possibly. Same case as the medium-high aces, except the two overcards make it seem even prettier to loose players.K/J, Q/J, J/10: YES!!! If he had a weak face card combo such as this, which has now turned into a monster, this is exactly what will usually happen. This one is a definite yes.Low Pocket Pairs: Yes. Same case as A/5... 2 pair on a safe board looks very pretty.Pocket Fives: Definitely. Another classic slow-play case, which fits perfectly.Suited Connectors: No freakin' way. Nobody's dumb enough to call a huge bet with no pair, no draw, and weak low cards. Only a top pro, who knows how to fake a slow-play, would make this kind of a call. But since he's loose and losing, we can assume he's not and is folding the junk.So, after the analysis, his hand range is down to AA, KK, A/10, A/9, A/8, A/5, K/Q, K/10, Q/10, K/J, Q/J, J/10, 9/9, 8/8, 7/7, 6/6, 5/5, 4/4, 3/3, and 2/2. Of those hands, 6 have you beat and 14 don't. So far you're in great shape.THE TURN:Believe it or not, that card was far from a disaster. Of the three hands which we determined he would call with on the flop with a queen, only 2 of them fit into the "junk into gold" category, and one of those hands seems rather unlikely. You're still ahead 12 times to behind 8. After his check, I would throw out another bet. If he has sixes through nines, A/5, or K/10, he's going to call you and then check the river and you'll win. If he does indeed have a monster, he'll either re-raise you and you can confidently fold, or he'll smooth call again and you will immediately back off and try to check the river down. A bet will win you the pot right there 6 times, get you called with a worse hand 6 times, and the opponent will call and win 8 times. 12 times, the bet is a profitable play, only 8 times is it a waste. I bet here.Analyzing your play, though, the double check basically means nothing. He'd make this check with every single possible hand, except maybe the queens, which he would probably bet. It also seems fishy to check aces or kings again, so the odds of those two have gone down slightly.THE RIVER:Wow. What a disaster. Now out of the 20 hands he could have, five have just given him the edge. So now 13 of the hands have you beat, and only 7 don't.My biggest concern is the small bet. Why make such a small bet? He's bet ten dollars into a 47 dollar pot, which seems to be the exactly perfect play for a slow-played monster hand to bet. I honestly think that aces and kings have lost their credibility with three checks in a row pre-flop, on the flop, turn, and the micro bet on the river, so I'm eliminating them. This bet would also be very very weird for pocket twos through fours, and they are somewhat less likely to call pre-flop, so they are eliminated as well. I won't completely eliminate the mid-high pocket pairs, but that would again be a very awkward defensive bet. K/10 might make this bet, but I'm surprised that it isn't bigger. The total junk hands which have now turned into 2 pair with a kicker higher than yours would definitely make this bet, as would the 'pair of queens' hands, which are now value bets from full houses.So the final range of hands which beat you is A/10, A/9, A/8, A/5, K/Q, K/J, K/10, Q/J, Q/10, J/10, and pocket fives.The final range of hands which don't beat you are 9/9, 8/8, 7/7, and 6/6.Starting from the top down, let's look at how likely each hand is to have made the given plays through the entire hand.HAND ---- PRE-FLOP Limp/call ---- Flop check/call ---- Turn Check ---- River Bet ---- What % of time does the playing of the hand fit?A/10 ---- Yes ---- possibly ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- 30%. Whether villain would call the flop is the big question with this hand.A/9 ---- Yes ---- possibly ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- 25%. Again, the flop is the question mark.A/8 ---- Yes ---- slight possibility ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- 20%. Calling the flop is unlikely, but possible, for this hand.A/5 ---- Probably ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- Probably ---- 85%. The pre-flop call and river bet are the only plays with any sort of doubt.K/Q ---- Probably ---- Probably ---- possibly ---- Definitely ---- 40%. The turn check is what's odd with this hand.K/J ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- Definitely ---- 95%. If he had K/J, this is exactly how he would play it.K/10 ---- Yes ---- possibly ---- Yes ---- Potentially ---- 25%. The call on the flop and the river bet make this hand less likely.Q/J ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- Definitely ---- 95%. Again, exactly how this hand would be played if he had it.Q/10 ---- Yes ---- possibly ---- possibly ---- Definitely ---- 20%. Really bad call on the flop, and unorthodox on turn, but possible.J/10 ---- Probably ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- Definitely ---- 85%. The Pre-flop call would be weak, but everything else fits.5/5 ---- Definitely ---- Definitely ---- Yes ---- Probably ---- 100%. Fits perfectly.9/9 ---- Probably ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- Unlikely ---- 30%. He might raise pre-flop with this one, and the bet on the river would be very strange with this hand.8/8 ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- Unlikely ---- 35%. Same as above, but more likely to limp/call pre-flop.7/7 ---- Definitely ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- Unlikely ---- 35%. Same.6/6 ---- Definitely ---- Yes ---- Yes ---- Unlikely ---- 35%.Something worse ---- possibly ---- possibly ---- yes ---- unlikely ---- 5%.Something else which beats you ---- unlikely ---- yes ---- yes ---- yes ---- 25%. This includes other bad hands like J/9, Q/9, etc, which are unlikely to call pre-flop but beat you.So, doing some quick math, hands which beat you make a grand total of 645.Hands which you have beat make a total of 140.Your odds of winning the hand if you call are therefore 140/785, or 4.6:1 odds against you.The calling odds are 4.6:1 versus 4.7:1 pot odds. This makes the call completely borderline. It is inconclusive, and you can do either action. Calling is very slightly profitable, but you're only going to win this hand about 1 out of 4 times. If you think that he can slow-play Ace/Jack preflop, or would call your $6 raise with J/9, it's a definite fold. But as I figured it, either way works.END RESULT: It's up to you. I'd personally call, just to see what he had, but don't expect to win the hand if you do call.Thanks for listening!

[Lavitz 0]

I was considering a call on the river, sorry for confusion. Reraising when cap is almost reached seems very poor, as I'm only beating a busted low PP. Even A high will probably call. The bet just seems very odd on the river and made me suspect he was calling a hand down like 56 or a low PP, figuring I was on air and realized the only way he's taking this pot is to stab the river hoping my A-high or PP will be thrown into the muck. Of course JK or 10J might play this hand the same way. I just called figuring I am right here at least once out of about 4 times with him having a low PP of some sort.