Ak A Odd One

[Scott3705 0]

If he pots the flop, he's getting more than 2:1 on his money to make the call.I think most people just say **** it and call. Especially live.If he's the type to lead weak on scary boards though, it might be better.Against people who put in continuation bets of $50 into $100 pots on boards like that, you stand a good chance at taking his $50 and getting a fold on top of it. But if he's willing to put $50 in and then fold, think of how much MORE likely it is that he'll fold if you just open push. Plus meta-game and all that bullshit.

This is wrong. Most are far more likely to call an open push than to call the C/R. I'm not saying you get a fold either way, but the open push gets called more than the C/R. not closeedit:Just wanted to add: (We're only ahed if he doesn't have a spade. I know we shouldn't think of this in terms of outs, but if anyone seriously thinks open pushing has FE, they would have to consider the fact that a caller will most likely be more comfortable calling with the spade in case you do run this race. Not a real big turn either way, but just so those advocating the push know that, in your scenario, if called, you're behind every time and rarely a favorite. .20% tho. )http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=9s+5s+2s&...s+Kd%0D%0AQc+Qshttp://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=9s+5s+2s&...s+Kd%0D%0Aks+khhttp://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=9s+5s+2s&...s+Kd%0D%0AAd+Ahhttp://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=9s+5s+2s&...s+Kd%0D%0Ajd+js

[Stallion714 0]

On a side note. You probably don't know it, but I've played with you Smash. Up to that point I was a huge Smash fan. Watching you "work" a table, and by that I don't mean run over by any means, left me with a bad taste in my mouth.Doubt it a lot.Post some hands tho.Good luck.

Heh you've spent the last 3 hours looking through your logs. It was more than a year back, and I don't play on stars anymore (Nor do I have the software for it). So i cant post logs. I can tell you my name on Stars was fingercuffs. It happened.

[Abbaddabba 0]

This is wrong. Most are far more likely to call an open push than to call the C/R. I'm not saying you get a fold either way, but the open push gets called more than the C/R. not close

Uhh, no.Not when the open push has them calling $300 in a $100 pot, and the check/raise has them calling $200 in a $300 pot.

[tapeworm 0]

You can't justify plays in no limit with equity equations.You can't?Stallion, I feel from your comments that you are afraid to lose a buy-in. Cash game is not about finding a time to "make a stance" its about making money in the long-run. In the long-run, equity equations come into play. If a guy goes all-in preflop and then shows u AKo, would you fold 2-2? I think you would, looking for a better spot to put your money in. Looking past his condescending tone, Smasharoo is absolutely right that folding is pretty bad(we are only talking about the flop here!!). If we *assume* that villain calls all-in no matter what(he could sneeze or lose his connection, but lets say there is no folding equity) then to justify putting in $300 in a $700 pot we need to win 300/700=42.8% According to PokerStove: AsKx vs. 99+(all pairs 99 and higher) we win 46%.AsKx vs. QQ+(all pairs QQ and higher) we win 45.997%AsKx vs. KK+(all pairs 99 and higher) we win 40.884%So only if we can guarantee he as KK or better and that he will never fold, is a fold a good play. When I originally read this post, I thought OP was making a BIG mistake by ignoring AA,KK but now that I have looked at it closer, I think folding is the only bad play. I mean, I only considered premium hands above, but his range could be higher, including a complete bluff! You can debate whether to open-push or C/R or whatever, but it seems pretty hard to validate check-fold/open-farrell. The *only* reason you would do that is if you are looking to decrease your variance, which suggests you are no comfortable at your limit.An argument can be made for folding PF, but that is a different question. Also, please tell me if my mathematical thinking above is wrong, as I normally don't think of hands this way and could be missing something.

[Scott3705 0]

Uhh, no.Not when the open push has them calling $300 in a $100 pot, and the check/raise has them calling $200 in a $300 pot.

Uhh, yes.Regardless of how much they have to call, the open push looks more like a steal than a made hand than the C/R. The open push gets called more than the C/R. Like i said, I'm not saying either one gets a fold here, but the C/R is going to get a fold here more than the push.

[Jordan 1]

You can't justify plays in no limit with equity equations.You can't?Stallion, I feel from your comments that you are afraid to lose a buy-in. Cash game is not about finding a time to "make a stance" its about making money in the long-run. In the long-run, equity equations come into play. If a guy goes all-in preflop and then shows u AKo, would you fold 2-2? I think you would, looking for a better spot to put your money in.

I'd fold 22 there preflop.- Jordan

[tapeworm 0]

I'd fold 22 there preflop.- Jordan

Can you explain why it is different? I would like to know. I mean you say Stallion is wrong for folding with positive equity(or did I miss something?) I am asusming here that it is heads up. I know you have $0 invested in the pot, but I feel you might have a bigger edge here than against a QQ+ range in the hand in question.Oh and, I would say that in the AK vs. QQ+ hand that you have very little folding equity...

[Jordan 1]

Can you explain why it is different? I would like to know. I mean you say Stallion is wrong for folding with positive equity(or did I miss something?) I am asusming here that it is heads up. I know you have $0 invested in the pot, but I feel you might have a bigger edge here than against a QQ+ range in the hand in question.Oh and, I would say that in the AK vs. QQ+ hand that you have very little folding equity...

because in a cash game I'm very rarely going to put my money in on a coinflip preflop when I know I can outplay him postflop. And/or get my money in POSTFLOP (yes on the flop with a small edge with only 2 to come) and not relying on a preflop flip.In cash games, over the last 10k, hell probably even 40k hands, I doubt I've played many more than 5 preflop all ins as a coinflip, unless I'm pressing the action with AK or QQ/JJ and get called with a hand like AK/AQ that happens to be racing with me and he was willing to call off his chips.if we are deep stacked i'm almost never trying to put in my money 50/50 preflop, ESPECIALLY if i know i have an edge over my opponent.- Jordan

[tapeworm 0]

because in a cash game I'm very rarely going to put my money in on a coinflip preflop when I know I can outplay him postflop. And/or get my money in POSTFLOP (yes on the flop with a small edge with only 2 to come) and not relying on a preflop flip.In cash games, over the last 10k, hell probably even 40k hands, I doubt I've played many more than 5 preflop all ins as a coinflip, unless I'm pressing the action with AK or QQ/JJ and get called with a hand like AK/AQ that happens to be racing with me and he was willing to call off his chips.if we are deep stacked i'm almost never trying to put in my money 50/50 preflop, ESPECIALLY if i know i have an edge over my opponent.- Jordan

Interesting... to me that sounds like Stallions reasoning for folding on flop, but I'm lost. I think if you take my example of opponent on QQ+ and 0% folding equity then you bet $300 to win 0.46*700 = $322 for a net profit of $22. In a PF race you'd bet $350 to win 0.52*700 = $364 for profit of $16. Marginally worse. But, of course assuming such a tight range of hands(QQ+) and 0% folding equity are big assumptions and I see how the flop play can be considered different(it still *feels* the same to me)The coin-flips you have gotten in the past don't apply cause you never knew your opponents cards(unless..you've been to www.pokercheats.com). My situation was pretty contrived and would never happen. (required heads-up and complete knowledge of opponent). I just added it to simplify the equity discussionAnywys, I might see your reasoning by saying you have a bigger edge then 52.6%. Maybe this donkey will leave after stacking you and you never see him again...Whatever....I'm kinda confused...Oh, and like I said I don't normally think like this, so my math could be wrong. I am just trying to undertsand this equity thing better by throwing some shite out there....

[Smasharoo 0]

Interesting... to me that sounds like Stallions reasoning for folding on flopYou have much more usefull information on the flop. This one in particular. Also preflop you have a tiny overlay 50/50 postflop you don't. Because the pot is larger and your opponent's hand is fairly well defined from his preflop action yu can force him to make a difficult decision here, even with a hand that is ahead. Thinking no one will ever lay down AA no spade (since we have the As) on this flop to a push is crazy. Good luck.

[Jordan 1]

i'm not thinking of playing a coinflip preflop in a cash game with 100bb and comparing it to this hand.to be honest, i've not put enough thought into this hand really cause it seems trite and not worth worrying about (to me at least).However playing a preflop all in in a cash game is really not neccessary unless you are pressing the action and get a "loose" call from a hand that has to catch up to you. Ex. you have QQ and 9 handed raise at the CO for 5x the BB after 2 limpers. The BB re-raises to 15x the BB, all fold back to you. You decide to push all in for 100bb total. 75bb back to BB who calls you with AKo. If I have AK there I muck just about everytime without a read. It's very rare I'll call off all my money without good pot odds and a sollid read that my opponent is a donk and could be pushing AQ/AJ or worse, or I'm willing to gamble in a coinflip.I'm more worried about postflop play then picking and choosing playing preflop all ins for 1 full buy in. Just not how I play NL.- Jordan

[LongLiveYorke 38]

This thread is exhibit A as to why Smash is easily my favorite poster. But enough of being a lame fan boy...We push this flop because doing so is free (or at least close to it).Running pokerstove, we are 46% against 99-AA. I think we gain back the 4% in fold equity against TT, JJ, QQ maybe. The point is, it's quite close.But this hand is all about metagame.We push here because we also want to push with AsKs, AsAh, 99, etc. We want him to know that we can push with AsK. We want him to call with QQ when we have AsKs, AsAh, 99, etc and watch him cry. That's how we make money in NL. WWPDWhat Would Prahlad Do?

[Actuary 3]

LLY:also, OVERLAY.so it's not close.we need to be all in on flop.and those other reasons u mention

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

Wow, it's nice to have him back.

Yep.

Uhh, no.Not when the open push has them calling $300 in a $100 pot, and the check/raise has them calling $200 in a $300 pot.

You make the mistake of assuming that everyone understands pot odds, let alone, applies them correctly. They don't. As for the hand....Meh, I don't mind Smash's push here. I'm pretty well indifferent. I don't mind the check/raise, either, if you can guarantee someone's willing to bet/fold--although, I'm not concerned about a call either. This hand's kinda tough to **** up. Get money in the pot, get in it now, get it in while your equity is high. Not difficult.

[Abbaddabba 0]

You make the mistake of assuming that everyone understands pot odds, let alone, applies them correctly. They don't.

They might not be able to articulate precisely why huge bets into small pots are bad to call, but they still have a certain intuition that sort of nudges them in the right direction.Most people who suck at poker arent actually mentally retarded, even if i like to say that they are.If he doesnt understand pot odds enough to see why calling an overbet of 3X the pot against what is (probably) a tight player is difficult, his range is probably a LOT wider than we've given him credit for.

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

They might not be able to articulate precisely why huge bets into small pots are bad to call, but they still have a certain intuition that sort of nudges them in the right direction.Most people who suck at poker arent actually mentally retarded, even if i like to say that they are.If he doesnt understand pot odds enough to see why calling an overbet of 3X the pot against what is (probably) a tight player is difficult, his range is probably a LOT wider than we've given him credit for.

I agree...and it probably is. Honestly though? I play mostly live at a casino--not sure how much you do--but, it really seems like more people are willing to call an all in than they are to call a check/raise, regardless of pot odds. It's just kind of a weird phenomenon. Might just be here, though.

[Abbaddabba 0]

Maybe it's an old man quirk where they want to keep you honest at all costs.Or maybe it's because i play with people who cant afford to lose the money they have on the table.

[Scott3705 0]

I agree...and it probably is. Honestly though? I play mostly live at a casino--not sure how much you do--but, it really seems like more people are willing to call an all in than they are to call a check/raise, regardless of pot odds. It's just kind of a weird phenomenon. Might just be here, though.

That's what I was getting at too. I don't think we have much fold equity against an overpair here either way. maybe if we were deeper, we can get a fold from a C/R. However, I think we should consider the percentage of time this reraise preflop may be from AKs in which case we are on a freeroll against. Open push will push this hand out and we were completely free rolling against this hand.