sng calculations

[jayistheman 0]

sngPT is pretty legit.If you aren't up for paying the $80, then here's what you need to do:www.pokerstove.comdownload that.http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.htmlbookmark that.A brief intro to ICM.ICM (independent chip model) is a calculation used to determine probabilities of certain finishes in a tournament, given chipstacks. If you want to know how it works, the google is your friend. Its not really relevant right here.Anyway...In a situation in a SnG (mainly the later stages.. 5 handed and below.) you can use this model to determine the proper action in a push/fold scenario.This is mainly pertinent when you have <= 10 bbs.this example is for a HU scenario.. (4 handed, first two fold, and you are in the SB. IMO, one of the most misplayed situations in SnGs)Here's what you do. Figure out what range of hands your opponent will call with, and type it into pokerstove... i.e.77+,KTo+, K8s+, A90+, A6s+ yada yada.punch that into pokerstove for player 1, then click the "player 1" button.click the "preflop" tabAt the bottom, there should be a slider, and a text box which says which percentage of hands are selected.This is the probability that you will be called. In this example, we will say it is 25% = pCALL = .25Next step is to go back to the main pokerstove screen, and simulate YOUR hand vs opponent's calling range. lets just say that its pWIN = .5Now, go to the site above and calculate your equity.Then, calculate your equity if you fold pf (i.e. if you are sb, it is your current stack - sb) call that 'eqFOLD'Then calculate your equity if you were to win the all in confrontation. = eqWINThen calculate your equity if you lose the all in. = eqLOSEThen calculate your equity if he folds and you steal = eqSTEALok. now get your calculator out.EV of pushing:pCALL * ((pWIN * eqWIN) + ((1-pWIN * eqLOSE))) + 1-pCALL * evSTEALEV of folding = evFOLDif evPUSH > evFOLD, then pushing is +EV.note: ((1-pWIN * eqLOSE)) often zeros out.. this happens when you have less chips than the BB... aka, you bust if you lose. your EV is now 0 for that case.lets put some numbers in.STACKS:ME: 2000BB: 2200UTG: 4000BTN: 3000Okay.. these don't add up right to a nice tournament total, but it doesn't matter.blinds are 150/300 and UTG and BTN fold.I hold T8s in SB.BB is tight, and will call with top 18% of hands. equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 64.7285 % 64.15% 00.57% { 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+ }Hand 2: 35.2715 % 34.70% 00.57% { T8s }So, we have 35 percent equity here.pCALL = .18pWIN = .35EQ = .2032 //my equity before the handeqFOLD = .1915 //my equity if i fold and give up my sbeqWIN = .3355 //i double up!eqLOSE = 0 //i'm outeqSTEAL = .2257 //i steal successfullyevPUSH = pCALL * ((pWIN * eqWIN) + ((1-pWIN * eqLOSE))) + 1-pCALL * evSTEAL.18 * ((.35 * .3355) + ((.65 * 0)) + .82 * .2257 which comes out to be = .2062evFOLD = .1915evPUSH > evFOLDput it all in.i'm pretty tired right now, so let me know if all of this is right.I kind of self taught this the other night. If there are any problems with it, of if i made an error, let me know.

[jayistheman 0]

if its a $5 full tilt sng, first = 22.5, second = 13.5, and third = 9.total of $45evFOLD = $8.61evPUSH = $9.28there is an actual $ difference of $0.67.You are passing up on almost 70 cents by folding here.Imagine the difference involved at a 100 sng.evFOLD = $172.35evPUSH = $186.21PUSH!

[HtotheNootch 0]

Just pay Eastbay

[Wingmaster05 0]

Good god if i had the time...i think it would be good to use that a fews times and then make rough estimates.

[jayistheman 0]

Just pay Eastbay

I actually wrote a crude console app to crunch the numbers.If i wasn't cheap, i'd do it.

[HtotheNootch 0]

I bought it and I'm very happy I did. I feel I had gotten a positive return on my investment in less than a week.

[jayistheman 0]

I bought it and I'm very happy I did.  I feel I had gotten a positive return on my investment in less than a week.

I'm sure its a good deal.If I played more than I currently do, I'd buy for sure, given that I didn't feel like programming my own.