pocket pairs (lhe preflop question)

[TheMathProf 0]

After a lot of reading, I made one adjustment to my play:Specifically, I found myself too frequently calling two or even three bets preflop with just about any pocket pair. Pretty sure this was a donk move, and so I've really tightened up my requirements for calling two (or more) bets by requiring at least five or more players to be either in the pot or likely to be in the pot. I've heard that's pretty standard.Here's the question: since I've made this change, my percentage of visits to the flop has dropped significantly, and it's mostly in my VP$IP category. The flops seen percentage has dropped by 4 percentage points, and the VP$IP has dropped by about 3.5 percentage points. Is this size of a drop really something I can attribute to just this one change? Or should I be looking for other changes that I might have unwittingly made to my preflop selection?Thanks in advance for any input.

[BeanGW 0]

Is this size of a drop really something I can attribute to just this one change? Or should I be looking for other changes that I might have unwittingly made to my preflop selection?

Depends how many hands you've played since making the change. Could very easily be variance in addition to your adjustment.BTW... as for your guidelines, there's one other thing to remember. Sometimes you will be acting directly after a loose raiser... or it will then be folded to you on the button. Often times, even with only one in the pot, You should reraise to isolate. Granted, good reads on the PF raiser are pretty important there.Peace

[BetItAll33 0]

Without any statistical evidence, I'm going to guess that this one change should not account for such a significant change in your overall VP$IP.how about sample sizes...You might also find this thread relevant and/or interesting:http://fullcontactpoker.com/poker-forums/v...pic.php?t=28120

[TheMathProf 0]

Is this size of a drop really something I can attribute to just this one change? Or should I be looking for other changes that I might have unwittingly made to my preflop selection?

Depends how many hands you've played since making the change. Could very easily be variance in addition to your adjustment.BTW... as for your guidelines, there's one other thing to remember. Sometimes you will be acting directly after a loose raiser... or it will then be folded to you on the button. Often times, even with only one in the pot, You should reraise to isolate. Granted, good reads on the PF raiser are pretty important there.Peace

Sure. Haven't taken that isolation reraise completely out of my arsenal.It's not a huge sample size since the switch, just under 10,000 hands (which is about 2-3 weeks of hands for me, under normal conditions). It was just getting to be large enough, that I was really starting to wonder.I am starting to think it might be a little bit of variance. One other thing that just came to mind in the same light:The probability of hitting a pocket pair is 1/17 (approximately 5.9%), but I'd have to imagine that I'm usually raising a significant percentage of those pocket pairs (approximately one-third). This would mean every other pocket pair is ALWAYS running into a raised pot...

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

Whenever I'm concerned about something... and sample size is a very relevant statistic... I always end up thinking really long and hard... and blaming the side of variance.I'm down 300 BB of live NL in 30ish hours of play. I was starting to get really worried... but then I've recalled that I've hit ONE set in those 30 hours (and it got outdrawn to an overpair)... and I can distinctly remember hitting a total of 4 flushes (and only one of them was a nut flush). Five-outers and two-outers GALORE with my overpairs when I'm out of position.And then I ask myself what's the % chance of seeing that happen... at maybe 30 hands/hr... over 30 hours? Not impossible enough to stop playing correctly. And how profitable can I expect to be seeing all that? Not very profitable.Variance is a bitch... but understanding it is the first step to beating it. Now I'm dealing this game for $20-$25 hr. in tips... being way friendly... and getting hella free reads. When I'm back... I'll be back.