Squamch 0 Posted July 5, 2005 Share Posted July 5, 2005 I was kind of surprised to see this, considering Daniel's srtuggles so far in the WSOP. www.sportinteraction.com is giving odds on making the final table in the Main Event, and Daniel is the favorite at 9-1. Ivey's paying something like 19-1. Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Posted July 5, 2005 Share Posted July 5, 2005 its simple statistics. all of daniel's bad hands/draws have already been played. he has nothing but monsters to get from now on. Link to post Share on other sites
ajs510 122 Posted July 5, 2005 Share Posted July 5, 2005 Odds have very little to do with being the actual "favorite". It's more a matter of being the person most likely to be bet on most often, and the oddsmakers having to protect themselves from the "possibility" that the person most people bet on will actually win. To further illustrate, I've seen Tobey Maguire and Ben Affleck listed up with Negreanu, Ivey, and other top professionals as "favorites" to *win* the Main Event, and it has nothing to do with their poker ability. If 10,000 people bet $5 on Ben Affleck to win the Main Event at 1000-1 odds (which is probably accurate) the bookmaker would be out 50 million dollars if he actually pulled it off. Link to post Share on other sites
otnemem 0 Posted July 5, 2005 Share Posted July 5, 2005 Odds have very little to do with being the actual "favorite". It's more a matter of being the person most likely to be bet on most often, and the oddsmakers having to protect themselves from the "possibility" that the person most people bet on will actually win. To further illustrate, I've seen Tobey Maguire and Ben Affleck listed up with Negreanu, Ivey, and other top professionals as "favorites" to *win* the Main Event, and it has nothing to do with their poker ability. If 10,000 people bet $5 on Ben Affleck to win the Main Event at 1000-1 odds (which is probably accurate) the bookmaker would be out 50 million dollars if he actually pulled it off.But all of this boils down to their chances of winning or making the final table. But anyway, 9:1 on DN making the final table is a sucker's bet considering the actual odds of him making it are so significantly worse. Link to post Share on other sites
Squamch 0 Posted July 5, 2005 Author Share Posted July 5, 2005 I think the odds of anyone making the final table this year would be terrible. The field is just too large. However, what aj said makes a lot of sense, because the site is Canadian and most Canadians are most likely to bet on Daniel. Link to post Share on other sites
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