Turn Nuts Vs Button Limp

[Sick Boy 0]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

 

saw flop | saw showdown

 

SB ($27.46)

Hero (BB) ($36.74)

UTG ($25)

MP ($25)

CO ($25.69)

Button ($60.78)

 

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, Q

3 folds, Button calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, Button calls $0.50

 

Flop: ($1.60) K, 3, 10(2 players)

Hero bets $1, Button calls $1

 

Turn: ($3.60) A(2 players)

Hero checks, Button checks

 

River: ($3.60) 2(2 players)

Hero bets $1.88, Button raises to $3.76,

 

Total pot: $11.12 | Rake: $0.55

 

Results below:

 

Button had 7, 4 (flush, King high).

Hero had J, Q (straight, Ace high).

Outcome: Button won $10.57

 

 

So I'm assuming this is a pretty easy call on the river but I was more wondering about my play on the turn. My plan was to go for the check raise on the turn here hoping he would bet the flush draw and then either check call the river if a diamond hit or check raise if the diamond misses. I was also thinking there's a good chance he checks behind with a 10 or some kind of weak king and we can get paid of on the river with decent sized value bet. This was also like the 3rd time he had limped the button so he could be doing that with pretty much anything so I felt like it was possible he might have a weak ace to that was floating the flop, best case scenario a hand like A3. Thoughts?

[KingJames 11]

Raise more pre-flop; we're going to be oop and we want to reduce the direct and implied odds we're offering and create more dead money when he limp calls and calls one bet or folds a lot of flops etc.

 

On the flop I'd bet a little more; $1.25 would be my default here

 

The turn is an auto-bet for me. Going for a c/r vs what is expected to be a passive player (playing small stakes and has been limping and calling a lot) is wishful FPS

 

As played $3 would be right as we want him to call any ace he floated, he'll likely call with a K and of course the draws.

 

Then the river should be a bet-fold; he's not bluffing (what could he have that is now a bluff?)

[CobaltBlue 662]

The only thing that I disagree with KJ about is the river. Yeah, we're beat a bunch...but a min-raise from him could occasionally be two pair or a set.

[KingJames 11]

Meh we're getting 4.9-1 and I don't think he has 20% bluffs. I'd say his bluffing frequency is closer to 10% and likely lower

 

I think IP he will bet his two pairs and sets the majority of the time on the turn. Villain: Zomg I have A3 and he could have a flush draw!!!

[CobaltBlue 662]

Meh we're getting 4.9-1 and I don't think he has 20% bluffs. I'd say his bluffing frequency is closer to 10% and likely lower

 

I think IP he will bet his two pairs and sets the majority of the time on the turn. Villain: Zomg I have A3 and he could have a flush draw!!!

I mean, I don't disagree that he's more likely to bet the turn with two pairs and sets...but he's open-limping the button, so it's very unlikely that he's competent.

 

I'd say he's got a bluff 5%, but I think he's got a worse hand that's going for thin value maybe 15%, so I think we're about breakeven. I see people min-raise on the end with hands they think might be good...but don't know. If he raised more than that, I'm all on board for folding.

[Jam-Fly 8]

I agree with the guys, raise a little more pf (I don't mind a check either), and def bet turn.

 

I call the min-raise on the river. I think the raise is a random crazy bluff enough of the time to justify a call. It could also be just one of those raises where villain doesn't even know why he's raising.

[Sick Boy 0]

Thanks for the feedback guys greatly appreciated!