Sheiky 0 Posted July 28, 2008 Share Posted July 28, 2008 Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)BB ($28.15)UTG ($10)MP ($19.80)CO ($9.65)Hero ($12.10)SB ($5.30)Preflop: Hero is Button with A , T . 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, 1 fold, BB calls $0.25.Flop: ($0.75) K , A , J (2 players)BB checks, Hero bets $0.6, BB calls $0.60.Turn: ($1.95) Q (2 players)BB checks, Hero bets $1.5, BB calls $1.50.River: ($4.95) J (2 players)BB bets $6.4, Hero ?Villain is 54/15/.71 after 66 but with turn AF of 3 and river AF of 7, we haven't played any big pots together so far but as his numbers suggest he's very erratic and bad, though I hadn't yet seem him show down a bluff. Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted July 28, 2008 Share Posted July 28, 2008 callpuke Link to post Share on other sites
jmbreslin 0 Posted July 28, 2008 Share Posted July 28, 2008 Bets like that just confuse the hell out of me, which I guess is the point. I'd like to think that he'd be betting smaller with a full house but this could also be one of those "overbet to look like a bluff" moves.Does he have any history of 3-betting PF? Most hands that would give him the boat would be 3-betting hands in that spot: AA, KK, QQ, AJ. Problem is once you throw in QJ and KJ you have a pretty big collection of hands that would call a PF raise and hit the boat here. What are his call open-raise numbers?Perhaps he also has the straight and he's trying to scare you off your half.Aside from a bluff, which doesn't seem very likely here, what hands do you see him betting this way that you beat? Link to post Share on other sites
Scott3705 0 Posted July 28, 2008 Share Posted July 28, 2008 Bets like that just confuse the hell out of me, which I guess is the point. I'd like to think that he'd be betting smaller with a full house but this could also be one of those "overbet to look like a bluff" moves.Agreed.I think the most reasonable hand for him to show up with is JQ. I see a naked ten popping the turn and a flopped straight popping the flop, so I don't see a ten often, but it's reasonable to think it might be there. I still think it's JQ most often (or JK whatever). Link to post Share on other sites
Sheiky 0 Posted July 28, 2008 Author Share Posted July 28, 2008 Bets like that just confuse the hell out of me, which I guess is the point. I'd like to think that he'd be betting smaller with a full house but this could also be one of those "overbet to look like a bluff" moves.Does he have any history of 3-betting PF? Most hands that would give him the boat would be 3-betting hands in that spot: AA, KK, QQ, AJ. Problem is once you throw in QJ and KJ you have a pretty big collection of hands that would call a PF raise and hit the boat here. What are his call open-raise numbers?Perhaps he also has the straight and he's trying to scare you off your half.Aside from a bluff, which doesn't seem very likely here, what hands do you see him betting this way that you beat?Very good analysis, he was very passive PF so as well as KJ/QJ I think he could very possibly show up with QQ or AJ. He called a LOT PF as well.I think he could definitely show up with something totaly retarded like K9 or 88 occasionally(but then again, most people can show up with odd stuff), but i really didn't know if he would bet a ten that way. From past experience though I think an overbet on this board texture is normally a strong hand looking to get paid off by a very obvious second best hand. Link to post Share on other sites
Temporary Nuts 1 Posted July 28, 2008 Share Posted July 28, 2008 Full house every time, except when it's quads, but I still call because I was fast playing the nuts on the turn.As far as strategy, I prefer to grab the stress ball BEFORE i click call, that way I save money on monitors. Link to post Share on other sites
d0c 0 Posted July 28, 2008 Share Posted July 28, 2008 What about his WTSD stat? I think with so big river aggression WTSD will reveal his range. If its anything greater than 20 then you can't take naked J out of his range. Link to post Share on other sites
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