I completely blew it in Australia
I was a little groggy for some reason and didn’t feel like I was all there coming into the Aussie Millions event. I played the $100k buy in two days prior and was annoyed with how that went.
I ran into Erick Lindgren’s quads again, holding QQ on a 6-6-2-10-6 board and paid him off for 24,000 on the river when I knew better. I finally went broke with Kh 3h on a board of Qh 9h 3s. I actually had way the best of it, as my opponent had Jh 8h. The 10 on the turn killed me.
Early in the Aussie Millions I seemed to run into several cold decks but I did an excellent job of minimizing the damage and lost less than half my stack. I was able to claw my way back over 20,000 by the dinner break and when I came back from dinner the following hand came down:
Blinds were 200-400 with a 50 ante and David Singer raised from first position to 1100. I called from middle position with 6d 4d and Marsha Waggoner called from the button. The big blind hesitated for quite a while before finally calling also.
The flop came Kd 9d 6c and the big blind immediately declared himself all in for 20,000! It was a really bizarre over bet to say the least. David folded and I starting thinking about my opponent’s range of hands and couldn’t find one that had me beat. Obviously KQ is “ahead” of me, but my hand would be a statistical favorite over KQ and the pot was laying me 25 to 20.
From a purely mathematical, pots odds perspective calling was the correct play considering my opponents range of hands, but calling was the wrong play for ME. Before I go any further, let’s look at how my hand does against the range of hands I put him on:
Kh Qs: I win 50.10%
Ad 10d: I win 50.40%
Ad 5d: I win 59.49% That’s roughly the range of hands that I put him on based on his overbet. As it turned out, he made the bet with K9! I was 39.19% to call. I just couldn’t believe it? It seemed like such an odd way to play the hand, but I should have known better than to guess as to what a total wildcard might do with a hand like two pair in that spot. Despite knowing that I couldn’t possibly be drawing dead against any hand in the deck here, and also that it looks like the pot is laying me the right price, I’m supposed to fold this hand. Why did I call??? I don’t even know. The bet annoyed me, but that’s hardly a reason to make a call? I had virtually the same hand in the 100K and lost, so maybe I was due? LOL, that’s totally silly. I just felt like gambling, and that’s just a terrible way to approach a poker hand. Obviously, I didn’t improve and I was out of the tournament when I could still be in there with 20,000 and 200-400 blinds. Just totally stupid. It’s been a full day now and I’m still kind of shell shocked. I just can’t believe I made such a bone head play, it’s so amateurish. Oh well, there goes the whole, “playing my best at all times” approach! At this point I really just need to put that hand behind me and focus on the rest of the month. I’ll likely play in the 5k buy in heads up tournament tomorrow and if I bust out of that I’m going to fly home for a day or two before going off to Tunica. I was going to go watch the Australian Open today but decided to just chill in my room. This trip has not gone according to plan at all and I have no one to blame but myself for being out of the tournament. I wasn’t as prepared as I should have been, and ultimately made an impulse decision that cost me the tournament.