How Do I Play This Oop Against A Very Lag Villain?

[ChrisRichey 1]

Villain is extremely laggy, so what's your line? Should I pat the 9 after he draws 2?PokerStars Game #8490557897: Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/02/17 - 18:28:47 (ET)Table 'Hestia IV' 6-max Seat #6 is the buttonSeat 1: Skoot ($16.15 in chips) Seat 2: smokeshow ($33.80 in chips) Seat 3: ChrisRichey ($65.05 in chips) Seat 4: oufangreg ($17.85 in chips) Seat 5: Mr.Belding ($29.80 in chips) Seat 6: cr_123 ($6.65 in chips) Skoot: posts small blind $0.25smokeshow: posts big blind $0.50*** DEALING HANDS ***Dealt to ChrisRichey [2s 5s 6c 8d 5c]ChrisRichey: raises $0.50 to $1oufangreg: folds Mr.Belding: folds cr_123: raises $0.50 to $1.50Skoot: folds smokeshow: folds ChrisRichey: raises $0.50 to $2Betting is cappedcr_123: calls $0.50*** FIRST DRAW ***ChrisRichey: discards 1 card [5s]Dealt to ChrisRichey [2s 6c 8d 5c] [9d]cr_123: discards 2 cardsChrisRichey: bets $0.50cr_123: calls $0.50*** SECOND DRAW ***ChrisRichey: discards 1 card [9d]Dealt to ChrisRichey [2s 6c 8d 5c] [8c]cr_123: stands pat ChrisRichey: checks cr_123: bets $1ChrisRichey: calls $1*** THIRD DRAW ***ChrisRichey: discards 1 card [8c]Dealt to ChrisRichey [2s 6c 8d 5c] [Kd]cr_123: stands pat

[Vman96 0]

Yeah, cr_123 is uber-aggressive. He probably bleeds a bit from his aggression. Nevertheless, you can virtually guarantee he has a 3 card wheel draw before the first draw. Being out of position I think forces you to toss the 9. For arguments sake lets say he keeps any 8 or lower. How often is he going to fail his draw? Also we can safely assume he will not draw if he does not improve at all going into the third draw. So we get folds roughly (31/47)*(30/46)*(29/45)*(28/44) = 17.6% of the time. So the other 82.4% of the time we are praying our hand holds...(I may do more complicated math later). Now if you were in position and knew he was drawing two ahead of time then he fails to improve going into the last draw (29/45)*(28/44) = 41% of the time. Position makes a BIG difference here. I rarely stay pat with a 9 after the 1st draw unless I know I am wayyyyyy ahead. Also keep in mind that your opponent wins if he makes a 97 as well. By the way the hand history looks...he might have already.