Is This Attainable

[dead money 1]

I recently put money back on Full Tilt and I noticed that they now have 4 man heads up shootouts. Winner take all. I was crunching some numbers and I found that if you have a 50% win rate then your ROI is 82%. I then took that to each level. At $5 you would make $4.50 per shootout. At $10 you would make $9. And at $20 you would make $18.Now lets say it takes on avgerage 45min. to complete a shootout. That means that you could play about 50 shootouts in a 40 hour work week. Now if you play the $5 level you would make $225 a week. At the $10 level you would make $450 a week and at the $20 level you would make $900 a week. This seems like it could be a pretty profitable way to earn a supplemental income. If you only played 10 hours a week at the $20 level you would be able to add an extra $225 to your weekly income. The only problem with my analysis is that I have no sample to back it up. I dont really play heads up so I dont know how attainable it would be to win 50% of a 4 person shootout. Ive only played 10 so far and I have won 6, and of those only 2 were at the $20 level(1 for 2 at that level). My question is to players who play alot of heads up. Could this work? Would I be able to maintain it. I would like to try playing 20 hours a week on the side to see how well I am doing. I just want to know if my expectations are too high. Any advice would help. Thanks.

[Don Giovanni 0]

i dont think anyone can play just low stakes heads up matches for too long. it gets pretty annoying.

[HomeRow 0]

I'd think 50% would be kinda hard in these, but my math may be flawed. Say you're awfully good, and you win the first match 75% of the time (which is probably asking alot, although I don't doubt this is attainable at the lower limits). In a 100 hand sample, that's obviously 75 times you make it to the last round. In order to win 50% overall, you will have to win 2/3 of that 75 just to hit the 50/100. I'd guess that this would be very tough to do, but maybe I just suck. Now way you win the first match 60% of the time, if you win 2/3 of those then you have a 40% winrate, which would still be pretty good (and quite profitable past the lowest limits, or a good way to build a small BR by playing the lowest limit).

[JaysForLife 0]

ive tryed the same thing at pokerstars and trust me it gets way to monotonous. after about 4 or 5 heads up matches in a row ur ready to find something new to do. i think 50% is attainable with the amount of donks at low levels but unless u have incredible patience it would be very hard to keep up to a constant schedule.

[zimmer4141 0]

I don't think even the best players could win 50% of these. However, if you find yourself getting bored with them, you can likely do 2-3 at the same time, and that would cut down on the monotony.

[dead money 1]

Ok, I did a few modifications based on new info. You said that a 50% win rate is a little high and I agree. I was looking at some regular heads up stats and a 60% win rate heads up is the minimum to make a profit. That would be a 10% ROI. Now lets say I maintain that 60% for each individual shootout match. So, I am looking at both the 1st and 2nd matches as individual. Therefore I would win my first match 60% of the time. That means that out of 100 first matches, I would advance 60 times and I would be out the other 40. Now, of the 60 matches that I advance, I would win 60% of the 2nd matches. That would be 36 times I win outright and 24 that I lose. Therefore I would win 36 times out of 100. So my winrate would be 36% for the 4 person shootouts. That means that my ROI would be 67% or $14.72 per shootout at the $20 level. So I would be making $736 for a 40 hour work week and $368 for a 20 hour work week. I dont know why, but I feel like I am missing something here. I dont think my math is correct. If someone could correct me, that would be great.

[zimmer4141 0]

Ok, I did a few modifications based on new info. You said that a 50% win rate is a little high and I agree. I was looking at some regular heads up stats and a 60% win rate heads up is the minimum to make a profit. That would be a 10% ROI. Now lets say I maintain that 60% for each individual shootout match. So, I am looking at both the 1st and 2nd matches as individual. Therefore I would win my first match 60% of the time. That means that out of 100 first matches, I would advance 60 times and I would be out the other 40. Now, of the 60 matches that I advance, I would win 60% of the 2nd matches. That would be 36 times I win outright and 24 that I lose. Therefore I would win 36 times out of 100. So my winrate would be 36% for the 4 person shootouts. That means that my ROI would be 67% or $14.72 per shootout at the $20 level. So I would be making $736 for a 40 hour work week and $368 for a 20 hour work week. I dont know why, but I feel like I am missing something here. I dont think my math is correct. If someone could correct me, that would be great.

Your math is correct. Now think that you can play 2 at once. Take a little away from the ROI because of less concentration, and you could probably be making $1350 or so per week at the $20s. The problem comes in having the discipline to sit there for hours on end and do that. It will be tougher than you think.

[dead money 1]

Ok, I figured it out. My math was wrong. You would make $6.80 per shootout at the $20 level. That makes so much more sense. I knew I was doing something wrong. That would be $340 for a 40 hour work week. I got a little excited there for a minute, but I knew I was doing something wrong. Thanks for the replies guys.