Analysis Of Stats And Playing Tendencies

[jmbreslin 0]

Is anyone aware of anything written on how to use PT/HEM stats to develop reads on specific aspects of villain tendencies? I'm not looking for definitions of the stats, but rather how one might pull different stats together to interpret playing styles. Obviously I'm looking for something that goes much deeper than VPIP/PFR and general styles. There is such a wealth of info in these databases that I'd like to learn how to make the most of it.For example, what stats might you look at if you wanted to determine whether a villain was the kind of player who liked to try to take the pot away on the turn and/or river when checked to?What is the relevance of stats like Steal Limped Pot or Won When Saw Flop?

[jmbreslin 0]

A follow up question.If I were going to pick a spot to call a raise in position, float the flop, and try to steal on the turn, what would be the ideal villain in terms of stats? What would be the wrong kind of villain to try this against?

[NoBBiR 0]

A follow up question.If I were going to pick a spot to call a raise in position, float the flop, and try to steal on the turn, what would be the ideal villain in terms of stats? What would be the wrong kind of villain to try this against?

People with high CBET% and low turn aggression are the best people to float and steal from. It's pointless to bother at most of the lower limits unless you have like 1k+ hands on them. It's best not to float aggro people though as they often will bet the turn and then you are basically just guessing if they're weak or not on the turn.And I don't use a hud so I can't help the first Q.

[tskillz187 0]

Good questions, I'm on vacation so my answer won't suffice. But, you're going to need like a few k hands to make educated decisions in 6max pots against people for this. In HU which I play now I basically make almost all my plays based on the stats of villain and you can actually get pretty great reads in the first 20 or so hands on how they play. 6max it may take 150 hands just to get someone to play 20 hands, and even then things like position and prior action in the hand weigh heavily on whether or not they play the hand. In HU there are only two positions to play so it's just easier to gather reliable info quickly.

[jmbreslin 0]

People with high CBET% and low turn aggression are the best people to float and steal from. It's pointless to bother at most of the lower limits unless you have like 1k+ hands on them. It's best not to float aggro people though as they often will bet the turn and then you are basically just guessing if they're weak or not on the turn.

Do their VPIP/PFR stats matter at all, or are you just looking at CB% and turn aggression?

[NoBBiR 0]

Do their VPIP/PFR stats matter at all, or are you just looking at CB% and turn aggression?

VPIP/PFR are not really what you should be looking at IMHO if you're looking for people to float and take it away on the turn.Although if the person is like 6/5/3 and their cbet is high and their turn aggro is low, I probably shy away from the tighter players because their more likely to call you if they have some showdown value after they cbet. A lot of the like 25/8/1.5 kind of retards with high cbet% and low turn aggression are probably the people the go after, unless I'm mistaken.

[superninja79 0]

Villain? What the heck is this all about?

[NoBBiR 0]

Villain? What the heck is this all about?

The terminology "Villain?" Is that what you're asking? Lol.

[superninja79 0]

The terminology "Villain?" Is that what you're asking? Lol.

Yes, as it applies to poker. I know what stealing pots are, but does that make you a poker villain?

[SCS 0]

Yes, as it applies to poker. I know what stealing pots are, but does that make you a poker villain?

It's just the person you are playing against that particular hand.

[jmbreslin 0]

Here's an example. I discovered this last night while NoBBiR was watching me play a .02-.05 session; the stats are from a player for whom I have close to 700 hands in my HEM trial database.VPIP/PFR: ~23/8 (plus my notes show that he's raised with 99, JJ, and AA)CB%: 96Flop aggression factor: 5.0Turn aggression factor: 4.0River aggression factor: 0.5W$SD: 33What do you make of these stats? Then I'll tell you what NoBBiR and I came up with.

[tskillz187 0]

Uh, he cbets too much, double barrels too much, and gives up on the river with his nothing hands so when he bets river it's for value. That's why his w$sd is so low, because he's not 3barrel bluffing enough, or because he's obv two barreling too much.

[jmbreslin 0]

Aggression factor doesn't take checking or folding into account, so the low river AF doesn't necessarily mean he gives up on the river. The combination of his very low river AF and very low W$SD might indicate that he stops betting on the river but has trouble letting go of marginal hands and calls when he shouldn't.

[SCS 0]

He has a wide gap between vpip and pfr, which means he's limp calling to much. His range for raising is probably something like 88+, AJ+, KJ+, QJ and maybe a couple other hands.His high cb and turn cb is probably due a lot to his low pfr%. Do not try to induce a bluff on the river. Value bet thinly when checked to on the river. He calls too much on the river. If he bets the river, fold without a very strong hand.

[jmbreslin 0]

He has a wide gap between vpip and pfr, which means he's limp calling to much. His range for raising is probably something like 88+, AJ+, KJ+, QJ and maybe a couple other hands.His high cb and turn cb is probably due a lot to his low pfr%. Do not try to induce a bluff on the river. Value bet thinly when checked to on the river. He calls too much on the river. If he bets the river, fold without a very strong hand.

I had never thought about the gap between VPIP and PFR in that way before. The gap certainly indicates he limps far more than he raises, but does that necessarily mean he limp-calls raises?I think your river analysis is good.Here's what I was thinking. His low PFR and high CB and turn aggression indicates that he's a pretty tight raiser and can be counted on to CB and double-barrel. However, he seems to go into check-call mode on the river and loses 2/3 of his showdowns, which indicates that he has a hard time letting go of his big pair/TP hands. This kind of player is ripe for being trapped because you can let him do the betting on the flop and turn and will often call light on the river. A flop check-raise might also get extra value from him as he might also have trouble letting go of his hands at that point.This is fun. Anyone want to post another set of stats? It's a good way to practice analyzing players and figuring out how to exploit certain tendencies.

[SCS 0]

I had never thought about the gap between VPIP and PFR in that way before. The gap certainly indicates he limps far more than he raises, but does that necessarily mean he limp-calls raises?I think your river analysis is good.Here's what I was thinking. His low PFR and high CB and turn aggression indicates that he's a pretty tight raiser and can be counted on to CB and double-barrel. However, he seems to go into check-call mode on the river and loses 2/3 of his showdowns, which indicates that he has a hard time letting go of his big pair/TP hands. This kind of player is ripe for being trapped because you can let him do the betting on the flop and turn and will often call light on the river. A flop check-raise might also get extra value from him as he might also have trouble letting go of his hands at that point.This is fun. Anyone want to post another set of stats? It's a good way to practice analyzing players and figuring out how to exploit certain tendencies.

Well, villain is either limp-calling a lot, or limp-folding a lot. Either one is highly exploitable. If he limp-folds a lot, you can raise preflop with atc (keep in mind players left to act) or if he's limp calling, he'll fold to a cb on the flop, since his hand is probably a medium strength hand. For example, villain limps preflop, you raise and he calls. Flop comes KT8, you can bet your entire preflop range here because a lot of hands that villain limp calls with, such as low pocket pairs and sc hands have to fold here.

[jmbreslin 0]

Limp-calling might help explain why his fold to CB is pretty high (~75). He limps, doesn't like folding when someone raises, then gives up when the raiser fires a CB, unless he connects.I looked at his limp-call % and it was ~33, which means when he limps he actually folds 2/3 of the time (if I understand that stat correctly).