Expected Value

[Dobbo049 0]

HeyIts me again(as some of u know im new to poker so go easy on me :)Iv been reading up alot on Expected Value and i understand it...But do people actually use it?I mean, in a tournement without a pen, paper and probably a calculator, surely you cant work out all the possible hands all your opponants may have, work out the chance of them holding one and the chance wether it will beat you, and then calculate your Your expected value on every move?So my main question is...Do people realy use it at the table?And is there a simpler way of doing it?ThanksStu

[MikeBauer26 0]

Do people realy use it at the table?

Sure. But rather with rough approaches and probably more dedicated when the bets are becoming bigger.I feel free to call with Open ended straight draws or Nut-Flushdaws slightly against the odds on the flop when the bets are still small in relation to the stacks. If I have a drawing hand on the turn and I have to call an all-in, I take my time to look at the odds and also consider if I am drawing to the nuts or maybe a second best hand. (That takes into account that some of my outs might in fact be outs of my opponent)

Iv been reading up alot on Expected Value and i understand it...

You're ahead of me here.Sklanskys-EV-scenarios are excellent but confuse me to a point where I think "ok. he's probably knowing this stuff... i just follow the advice" and then see where it leads to. Also (this is a game of edges after all) if you play for play money or very small stakes, chasing the small edges is not getting you anywhere.

[Dobbo049 0]

thanksWhat i ment is i understand the idea of it, and how it works. Just not how im going to be able to quickly apply it to a game.Its just a big sum realy just i cant just do in my head :S so at a table i wouldnt know where to start stu

[David_Nicoson 1]

Well, the first step is keeping an idea of the pot size. Any actual arithmetic I do at the table is very likely to a single digit of precision. E.g., I have a gutshot, so I need to win 10x this bet to break even. Or he has a flush draw, I need to give him worse than 4:1 on this street.Otherwise, it's a matter of remembering situations that have come up before and what calculations someone did off-line.

[d0c 0]

Just not how im going to be able to quickly apply it to a game.

Practice. The feel comes with time.

[Webslinger516 0]

You can use the 4/2 rule for calculating pot odds; it's a rough estimate, but it's a quick way to figure out your chances in the heat of battle. You multiply your number of outs by 4 to see your chances of making your hand in the next two cards, and you multiply your number of outs by 2 to see your chances of making your hand on the next card.Example: If you have the nut flush draw on the flop, say AcKc and the flop is 3cJc4h, and you're certain he has QQ, that means you have 9 clean outs. Using the 4/2 rule, that means you have 36% chance to make your flush in the next two cards and 18% chance to make it on the next card. If the pot is offering you better odds than that, it should make your decisions easier on you.

[dingas 0]

I think EV is very useful for analyzing hands after the fact, to assess if you made the correct decision. For example, if you are facing a big bet on a 45s6s flop and you have AA, you are probably not able to mathematically calculate the opponent's full range of hands and your equity during the game, but when looking at it after, you can put it into pokerstove or another program and try to determine where you stand. This should tell you if your action is reasonable. It is basically an objective analytical tool.EV is also useful for all-in situations to calculate what win percentage you need to make the call. For example, if in a tournament the blinds are 100/200 and someone goes all in for 1000 more. What winning percentage do you need in the BB to make this call? EV helps you figure this out (the answer is approximately 43%).

[nobody610 0]

You can use the 4/2 rule for calculating pot odds; it's a rough estimate, but it's a quick way to figure out your chances in the heat of battle. You multiply your number of outs by 4 to see your chances of making your hand in the next two cards, and you multiply your number of outs by 2 to see your chances of making your hand on the next card.Example: If you have the nut flush draw on the flop, say AcKc and the flop is 3cJc4h, and you're certain he has QQ, that means you have 9 clean outs. Using the 4/2 rule, that means you have 36% chance to make your flush in the next two cards and 18% chance to make it on the next card. If the pot is offering you better odds than that, it should make your decisions easier on you.

Would we not also include the 6 other aces and kings that would give him the winning hand, or do we only count outs that lead to the nuts?

[Dobbo049 0]

thanks guysto be honest i kind of do it anyway when i have a straight or flush drawbut what if you already have a hand ?for example...(i rabbited on abit in this post but if u can be bothered to read it please let me know if im doing it right)say your hand is 3 / 3 and the board is K / 3 / 7 / Q So you have 3 of a kind wich is already a pretty good hand but your opponant may have a flush draw...Do you still count up your outs?which as i understand it would be 10 outs?the one 3 left for a 4 of a kind, and any of the remaining 3 K's 7's and Q's making a full house?So with 10 outs its about 1/4.6 odds ?So if the pot isnt more than 1/4.6 its not worth calling?Or have i gone wrong somwhere allong the line?... i suppose in this example you have to watch your opponants betting and if the river card is a heart and he bets heavily, you should fold?... But then again checking is giveing him 25% of the pot for free? because on the 1/4 chance he hits the flush he will bet and on the 3/4 chance he dosnt, he will fold?... Sooo if i understand it correctly you need to make a raise that would make your opponants call a bad call becasue he has Negative Expected Value, so that assumeing he has a flush draw and he will make that flush roughly 1/5 times, assumeing the pot is about $100, you should probably bet somewhere between $100 and $50 forceing his call to be a bad move?Am i following correctly or have i just confused myself?Heres another Question, one where you both could have hands... (its happened to me too many times)...Your holding 8 / 9 the board is 7 / 5 / K / 6 So here you have the nut straight, i spose the only outs are the 10's making is a slighty higher straight wich makes 4 outs...But maybe your opponants already got a flush.... So now how do you work out whether calling/raiseing/folding is the Profitably Correct?ThanksStu

[Webslinger516 0]

Would we not also include the 6 other aces and kings that would give him the winning hand, or do we only count outs that lead to the nuts?

Oh sorry, yeah if you knew he had QQ then you would include those 6 outs too.

[Dobbo049 0]

Anyone help on my last post?ThanksStu

[MikeBauer26 0]

thanks guysto be honest i kind of do it anyway when i have a straight or flush drawbut what if you already have a hand ?for example...(i rabbited on abit in this post but if u can be bothered to read it please let me know if im doing it right)say your hand is 3 / 3 and the board is K / 3 / 7 / Q So you have 3 of a kind wich is already a pretty good hand but your opponant may have a flush draw...Do you still count up your outs?

Quite frankly: NO. No counting outs here on your side. You would assume to have the best hand and raise.Depending on your on level of skill you can decide whether you want your opponent to make a marginal mistake by accepting slightly badd odds. Or simply push him of the hand.At low stakes simply pushing here seems best to me, as it Gets calls from:- KQ which does not have many outs to improve- KJ the number 1 fatal hand at these stakes which is dead- the drawing hands JT and a random sample of hearts, which are in better shape but still not getting proper odds.If you are a good player, you can probably get more value by not shoving but betting PSB or raising an amount equal to the current pot (including the last bet).If you are called, decisions on the river get more complicated then though if river happens to be no brick like 2 .If you push and he calls with a higher set (why wouldn't he)... reload.

Heres another Question, one where you both could have hands... (its happened to me too many times)...Your holding 8 / 9 the board is 7 / 5 / K / 6 So here you have the nut straight, i spose the only outs are the 10's making is a slighty higher straight wich makes 4 outs...But maybe your opponants already got a flush.... So now how do you work out whether calling/raiseing/folding is the Profitably Correct?ThanksStu

This is different. If you are not ahead now, the 10s in the deck aren't gonna help you anyway.If villain goes all in on the river or raises you big, you hand becomes a bluff catcher.Also... no counting outs here.

So now how do you work out whether calling/raiseing/folding is the Profitably Correct?ThanksStu

Practice, Observe, repeat :-)Did this help?

[Dobbo049 0]

yes thanks it did so the one i tried to explain myself i was "Kind of" rite? :)and so in most situations you only need to count the odds when you have a draw or something? iv also been told to do it with a pair (for 3 of a kind) and two pair (for a full house)... but like you say its not worth doing when you have 3 of a kind and another pair on the board would make a full house... theres no point doing it there or just in that situcation because you already have a potentially good hand ?....Im getting there lolThanksStu

[MikeBauer26 0]

and so in most situations you only need to count the odds when you have a draw or something?

Yes. Mostly draws to straights and flushes though. You will very very very rarely be in a position where you have a pair and can profitbaly draw to three of a kind AND get paid of. Most of the time you will be behind and the hand that completes your three of a kind will normally crush you.Also be aware that when you have TT on a 9JK board, you can almost never profitably draw to your set. As it will very likely complete the straight draw. If you hit your T on the turn in this scenario it's counting outs time (drawing for a fullhouse on the river as you will not be happy calling huge bets with your set here).

theres no point doing it there or just in that situcation because you already have a potentially good hand ?ThanksStu

As far as I see it... yes . If you think you have the best hand, provide badd odds for your opponent. But hey... look below my username... says "newbie" too ;-)

[David_Nicoson 1]

say your hand is 3 / 3 and the board is K / 3 / 7 / Q So you have 3 of a kind which is already a pretty good hand but your opponent may have a flush draw...Do you still count up your outs?

No, you don't. The conventional way to think of this is to count your opponent's outs to flushes that don't make a boat (7). That odds against his draw are 37:7 = 5.3:1. So you want to bet enough to make it a mistake for him to call. (Don't put too much stock in the details here. Ordinarily, the villain wouldn't know the hero's two cards.)In practice, you'll bet a lot more than that, because your opponent generally believes he has more outs that that (e.g., all 9 flush cards and perhaps 3 aces) and he might expect you to call a bet after he hits (implied odds). He'll be motivated to call much bigger bets than his pot odds would dictate.If you really want to count your own outs there, then count the cards that don't make him a winner. total deck - cards in your hands - cards on the board - cards that make him a winner52 - 4 - 4 - 7 = 37The odds of your making a winning hand are 7:37 = 0.19 : 1. You can never get worse than 1:1 from the pot, so there's no size of pot you should fold in. (This should make sense intuitively -- don't fold in pots when you are the favorite.)

[Dobbo049 0]

thanksits all making scence now But lets update that situation and look at a couple of scenarios....say your hand is 3 / 3 and the board is K / 3 / 7 / Q Scenario 1The turn card is 6 not a card you wanted to see(your opponant is 1st to act, pot is say $400)Opponant bets $300...not what you wanted to see, im guessing the card made his flush so i would fold...but is that the rite thing to do? the pots odds are about 2.3/1 so not great but not too badOpponant Checkshmmm....now either it missed him and he hasnt got a flush atall. maybe just a pair of kings or queens with a decent kicker or two pair. Im wich case uv won, so should you check? or raise? and how much?Opponant Re-RaisesOk ur opponant checks, you raise to $300 and he Re-Raises to $600 .... Bugger id probably read that as he was trying to trap me but i tend not to listen to what my instincts tell me to do (probably not a good thing...i tend to think "hmm if i fold i wont get to see if he realy did have a good hand, although im pretty sure he does") so i would probably call.... is that a good idea? Scenario 2The turn card is 2 Pretty sure it completly missed my opponant(your opponant is 1st to act, pot is say $400)Opponant bets $300Strange move... all i can guess is maybe he hit 2 pair or a set but either way hes beeten, so i would probably re-raise to about $600Opponant ChecksOk again id raise to about $300Opponant Re-RaisesI still cant see that card helping him that much so i would probably read as a bad bluff attempt and re-raise him againYet again iv rabbited on lol, any tips and advice especially if u think im making the wrong decitions or on how much to raise (thats deffinatly not a strong point of mine) etc would be much appreciatedSorry i ask lots of questions lolThanksStu

[MikeBauer26 0]

thanksBut lets update that situation and look at a couple of scenarios....say your hand is 3 / 3 and the board is K / 3 / 7 / Q Scenario 1The turn card is 6 not a card you wanted to see(your opponant is 1st to act, pot is say $400)Opponant bets $300...not what you wanted to see, im guessing the card made his flush so i would fold...but is that the rite thing to do? the pots odds are about 2.3/1 so not great but not too badOpponant Checkshmmm....now either it missed him and he hasnt got a flush atall. maybe just a pair of kings or queens with a decent kicker or two pair. Im wich case uv won, so should you check? or raise? and how much?Opponant Re-RaisesOk ur opponant checks, you raise to $300 and he Re-Raises to $600 .... Bugger id probably read that as he was trying to trap me but i tend not to listen to what my instincts tell me to do (probably not a good thing...i tend to think "hmm if i fold i wont get to see if he realy did have a good hand, although im pretty sure he does") so i would probably call.... is that a good idea?

For this scenario, the interesting part is how you got there and how the 400 got in the pot in the first place.What happend preflop?Did villain check to you and called your bet? If so, how big was the bet?Did villain bet the flop and you called/raised? If so how big was the raise?Is villain capable of betting his straightdraws or flushdraws?Is villain capable of bluffing on scare cards.Edit: as this is the RIVER and not the TURN you are not drawing to a fullhouse anymore.Ask yourself the above questions and you have the answers to a most of your questions.For scenario 2, it basically plays itself :-)

[Dobbo049 0]

i dont know how the pot got to $400 because i made it up lolits not a real hand iv played but im writeing it asif i was playingIts just mostly to ask you if im thinking right and makeing the right size bets and raises. :)ThanksStu