SpiderGuard
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Posts posted by SpiderGuard
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John Stewart absolutely shredded Obama for his stumbling in the debate this week. It must've been bad if Stewart was piling on.And from Obama's appearance on the Colbert Report:
"Well, Stephen, I think the American people are tired of these political games and petty distractions," Obama said."Sir, speaking for the news media, we are not tired of it," Colbert retorted. -
One of the best things I've ever read on this forum. Without knowing her, it seems like Brandi was drawn into the poker world because she considered herself capable of manipulating men, especially men with money who crave attention from beautiful women more than the typical LA stockbroker. Unfortunately she didn't understand the depths of degeneracy in the poker world, nor did she apparently understand what was going on inside her own head. While she thought she was working these men, the reality is that many of the people in her world were newly rich and had no problem shelling out a few bucks to get some amusement at her expense. Her previous suicidal gestures were probably a way of trying to control the world around her, and when they didn't work she ultimately had to go one step further.I'm sitting here trying to think of something to add to BG's post, and I really can't so I'll just quote him one more time:"I always saw Brandi as a personification of the degeneracy of the poker world, where many people feel that money trumps morality and the way greed can make a normally decent person do indecent things."I always saw Brandi as a personification of the degeneracy of the poker world, where many people feel that money trumps morality and the way greed can make a normally decent person do indecent things.Brandi was a victim of being an attractive young woman in a world that eats them up and spits them out. Not one of us would want our sister, daughter or wife involved in that world. -
As a college professor who's caught kids plagiarizing before - yeah, don't be stupid. It NEVER goes well for the student, especially now with things like iLearn and turnitin.com it's easy to even catch people who are using someone else's report.Heh, yeah not doing any work is probably always easier than doing any work.Not to be the asshole voice of reason here, but most colleges take plagiarism VERY seriously to the point of expulsion, so just be careful. -
Mine falls into the cracks of my couch. I usually get pissed about it, wonder where it could possibly be and curse myself for being stupid enough to lose the remote when it couldn't have gone that far away from the TV, and then after three or four days think to myself "I bet it fell into the cracks of the couch for the 912th time." Sure enough there it is and I move on.i always have the issue of losing my remote while in bed. either its usually under my pillows or in my covers. if im watching somethin on my dvr, it'll usually gets lost like 3 times during an hour long recording. this ever happen to anyone else? -
Exactly - he's always been absolutely horrible on SNL, but it works for some odd reason. Look back at the famous cowbell skit, he's 100% awful in it. I've always thought he goes on there and does a Christopher Walken impression, and that was the joke.wait, I thought this was the way he was on ther. I mean, the style and the always looking off camera (to read or just to look like it it didn't matter). It's endearing to the fans.On another note, has anyone ever seen "Rainbow Head" I hardly ever see that old skit in reruns. -
Would it be better if you were intently focused on the women's college basketball game?Sometimes I wonder if I am wasting my life. And then a spend my Sunday night on an interent message board while watching a women's college basketball game, and I know. -
CAROLINA FTW!
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That thread scares me. It is a lot of reading and I just want to watch you kick somebody in the nuts please.i ami refer you to the chrozzo web cam thread! -
Get yer ass on JTV
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You had me at "It's a dry heat."Dead guy in the car smell got me. -
It very well could be z-scoring. That's my initial thought, and I think it fits with what most political scientists would be comfortable with. I think I might need to come up with another distribution though...my problem is that I know enough to be dangerous with this stuff, but not enough to really be good.I have nothing more significant to add.So far in my work I've had little opportunity to deal with what I learned about fitting distributions.I'm still not 100% clear on why a Z-score is not the best thing for a simple level analysis. -
Let me give a little background on what the plot means before I get into the hypothesis test so I can explain what I'm doing here. I'm certainly open to any suggestions on where I've gone wrong.So the X Axis represents distance between the target word and the word "American." Words with small distances are related, words with large distances are unrelated. So the basic hypothesis is that "we" and "American" are related words (have a small distance)The picture represents the distribution of distances between American and all other words in the corpus. My thoughts: There are a couple different ways of doing this. The first is a pseudo-Neyman Pearson hypothesis testing framework (i.e. "we" is far enough away from the mean that it can't be that far away just by chance). The second is maybe some sort of Monte Carlo simulation...But yeah - there are many people on this board who are much better than I am at the statistics so I'm open to any and all suggestions of why I'm wrong and better ways to do this. It's a fairly important part of my research agenda, so I'm interested in doing this right, not just doing it with the tools I currently have in my limited toolbox.Thanks so far to all who have participated, please keep it coming.Can you give an example of the type of hypothesis you are trying to test? -
So I'm thinking z-scoring is not the way to go...I'm trying to come up with a hypothesis test for this problem, so I'll take any suggestions of places to look.(I took stats for political scientists...we're even below the psych folks) ;)Edit: It's not a homework assignment so there are no real guidelines. Just something that's accurate and tests that the distances are significantly different from each other.How dare you!SpiderGuard says he wants a Z-score.I told him he can have a Z-score without a Normal DistributionWhat are you disagreeing with?"Probability Values Associated with Z-scores" ... seems like you are thinking in terms of Normal, as my post above your noted.ps. Why are you disreguarding the other Parametric distributions. Just curious. Seems like something else could be fit; but alas, I don't recall the general shapes of these. -
So it's calculated in exactly the same way? If it's not normally distributed there are different percentages of the data on each side of the mean - doesn't a standard deviation mean more on the right side of the mean than the left?Z scores are not restricted to Normal DistributionsIf you need help calculating the Standard Dev or Mean, let me know. -
The whole word distance thing is kinda goofy - it has to do with priming and word relatedness. The prof delegated this down to me - I'm the methods guy on the team apparently, which is working out incredibly well for meuhh. weird. I'm kinda confused about what the heck you're doing but ok.I'd say you could probably just say that the distance between word pairs (ths is what the X axis is right?) for americans and we are in the 500 area whilst november has a distance of 900 or so and the mean is at 1050. I don't think you need the distribution to talk about that?Either that or send an email to your prof for clarification. I'm still a bit confused about what you're doing.
We're looking for some sort of hypothesis testing framework in which we can discuss these numbers - which is why we want z-scores. Social scientists are used to z-scores and p-values, so that's what we're trying to give them. Something more "scientific"...good times 
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It's actual analysis on a paper, so there's no specific question. But let me give more detail on what I'm actually trying to do with this dataset.I have a set of distances between word-pairs (N=16600), and I'm trying to figure out how many z-scores a specific word pair is away from the mean of the distribution. I'm attaching the plot below - but basically what I'm trying to do is show that Americans and We are statistically further away from the mean than November is.what does the question ask you to do?I'd say you should try to get the data to be normal by getting rid of any outliers, or separating by subgroups or something.It's hard to know what's going on without knowing the question.
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It's an actual dataset, so I have pretty much any information you'd need or wantwhat is it exactly that you are given? what does the question ask? So I have a mean, standard deviation (which if it were normal would be enough), and any other measures you'd ever want.Edit: The dataset has something like an N of 16000...not sure if there's any difference between t-score and z-score for non-normal distributions, but I thought I'd throw that out there.
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Thanks! I've poked through my stats books and haven't found anything...but I'm in the social sciences so we're a bit slower than the actual math typeslook at the definition of what a z-score is
edit: I see you said non-normal. I was wondering why this was so simple. uhh. not sure. I'll check my stat books
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I have a non-normal distribution (normalish looking, but skewed right), and I need to figure out how to find z-scores. Computing z-scores is easy enough for a normal distribution, but I have no clue how to do it for non-normal distributions. Any help from the stats folks here would be greatly appreciated.
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I just hit a 3 wood off the tee for the same reason - I get (or got when I was playing semi-regularly) 230-240, but it was almost always in the fairway and gave me a reasonable second shot. Miss the green with that one, a chip, and three putts later and I'm in with a double-bogey.If you all want lessons, let me know.I hit the Sasquatch, just looks too weird. And I now play a 9.5 Titliest since I don't need distance, I need straight. I lost about 20 yards off tee, but 260-280 is fine for me if it's straight. Plus I am always 1 year behind on technology because I am not good enough to take advatage of technology so why not save the money for cigars? -
Happy Birthday to one of FCP's finest posters. I'm insanely jealous of the golf simulator - that's the one requirement for my future house. We had one at the golf store I used to work at, and I miss it incredibly.2nd, I have to work today because that's how it is, so I celebrated yesterday by having a cigar, and having my two guys clear space for my new golf simulator at the shop, in the next few days I will have an indoor golf game with full smoking privledges and an 8 seat oak poker table in the next room next to 2 jukeboxes, a pinball machine, and a 9' King Kong and 10' Shark. Call if you want to come hit balls and smoke cigars. -
From Dave Meltzer on another message board I read:I am in the same boat as you as far as punishments go Grocery. Unfortunately, I believe Sherk did not knowingly juice. The levels of the drugs in his system were WAY WAY too low to be a juicer. Normal person 6mg, Sherk 12mg, juicer 50-60mg. The three samples tested prior to Sherk's all tested positive so there could have easily been tainted lab equipment. Sherk also passed a lie detector test. To me, it just doesn't add up. The only real suspicion I have is that he had just torn his rotator cuff so I can see him using them to heal quicker. Anyone have any comments on how BJ might beat Sherk?
And with that, I take my leave of the FCP.Don't let Sherk's b.s. get in the way of reality.He had two samples tested a total of three times. All three tests were positive for Deca.They were tested three different times several day apart.If the excuses his lawyer came up with were valid, there would be all sorts of false positives for Deca on the day of some or all of his tests, including other guys on the same show. Never happened.
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I'm the slow one who misread it in the first place...I just happened to beat you to the edit ;)Second post fixed to represent the real rules of the game.It's a one time fee.You pay $X and then flip until you hit heads.EDIT: I'm slow -
So yeah...changing the assumption to the idea that you don't have to pay for every flip changes how much I choose to play:1/2 the time your EV is $1 - $x (whatever you paid to play)1/4 = $2 - $x 3/4 = -$x1/8 = $4 - $x 7/8 = -$x1/16 = $8 - $x 15/16 = -$x...1/2^27 = $67,000,000 - $x 1-(1/2^27) = -$xSimplifying that, and solving for 0 you get:0.499 - $x = 0Breakeven point for the game approaches $0.50 - so if you can play it for less than that life is good.
Get This Penis Off My Back!
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Brandi and Captain Tom had a baby?http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1273232.ecehttp://dlisted.com/node/26494
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fetus_in_fetu