Vman96
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Posts posted by Vman96
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Checky is spot on...this is why pot limit triple draw is often a race to get pat first. If people bet correctly, you cant draw to ~6 outers. It's pat or fold here, and its pretty opponent dependent. If you opponent is tight and wouldnt shove before the last draw with a 9, then its a fold.well, if you break, you're drawing to a 7 or 8, for which you have at most 7 outs since the only reason you would break would be if you think your opponent held something beating your nine (realistically, though, you're probably better off giving yourself 6 outs since a third player was around for awhile). 7 outs getting 3:1 doesn't cut it, so folding is better than breaking.depending on how bad these guys are, though, a nine could conceivably be good. but i'd probably be tossing this as a general line. you played it right until then, though. -
Preflop raise...yeah maybe...but I dont mind a call here either.Now if you raised preflop, this would make the flop cold-call a lot more justified. Here it's pretty marginal. That raise could very well signify top and bottom pair is behind...so you can probably only give you 2 outs there max if youre behind. And since there are 2 low cards out...not all your flush outs can scoop. You effectively have a 5.5 outer FD (2456 or 8
gives you half, 7 
probably nothin). This is a good place to fold if you dont think all your outs are live...and I dont think they are, so you would have 7.5 outs max. After the cold call on the flop, everything else is very standard.Oh and BB almost certainly has A2, so you are def. fighting the low draw.Edit 2 (I suck): BB has A2 and raised preflop...so raising preflop probably doesnt change much unless BB is gutsy enough to 3bet. -
If you are calling preflop, you probably should check/fold flop or do what cham said....anything but check/call. I like the argment about folding preflop too. You may flop decent occasionally, but never strong...and you're in a bad position.
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Well then you lied to us about him being a good player. A good player wouldn't be 6-betting this hand.He was giving some info away with his tells though. After I reraised him the 5th time, he went into the tank and thought for about 20 seconds and had a puzzled look on his face. I was about 95% sure he had AAxx. Then he said something like, "I might get counterfeited." That's when I started thinking. It turns out none of this mattered because the river was a Jack, pairing the board. He bet and I called. He flipped over AA4x. I don't remember his fourth card, but it didn't matter at all. It turns out my play was actually good, because he a bad low draw and a vulnerable high hand to mine. Also, if he had AA23 to begin with he would have raised preflop in MP. This guy raised good low drawing hands preflop and rarely showed down just strong high hands. I just wanted to see what others though about my play. -
Well said. i wouldn't re-raise again until you improve if this guy is solid like you say. A good read would probably get you to just call the 4 bet. He isn't 4 betting without the low here, but as you said you thought you had a strong freeroll, so 5 betting isnt terrible, but his 6 bet is telling you you are behind to A23, 237, nut low + nut flush draw, etc.You're serious? Because-given his play- he probably has nut low, too. And he probably has a redraw, too. And after he puts the SIXTH bet in, his redraw is probably better than yours. If not, then you mark it down and realize he'll get all his chips in when you're frerolling on him. Do a little math. Like I said before, 2378 WITHOUT A DIAMOND DRAW has the best hand here.2378 w/2 diamonds has you as almost a 60/40 dog. These hands aren't really all that unlikely, and- given your read on him as a solid good player- are considerably more likely than some hand YOU have in bad shape. Wang -
Well, the sklansky article just shows the math behind getting a 2 card 7 if you start with 237...and never keep an 8. Teaches you nothing about how the game is played...just points out that getting 7s isnt too easy.I posted a more detailed post here on the math behind this when you also kept 8's when you drew them...much more realistic.It's more detailed than Sklansky, so if you follow it, you'll learn more from it than reading that article.http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...showtopic=96715Now for a real 2-7 TD must read. Read mark gritter's article about patting weaker hands in various scenarios. "Standing Pat When You Are Not the Favorite"http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/current/Gritter0507.htmlThis link doesn't work. -
Agreed...but he said villain 2 is the biggest fish at the table. And he bet it...so 4x44 is possible against a stud8 idiot. If you are going to fold it though, now is the time. Tough spot.OTOH, villain 2 had to cold-call a complete, so 4x4 should be fairly unlikely. So raise/folding might be better here.sometimes, i raise/fold here. sometimes, i just muck. since you're playing live, there should probably be enough physical info from your villains to tell you which is the proper play.don't just assume ghosts are pouring out of the closet, though. ask yourself this: is it more likely that these guys hit 2 outers on the high or that they bricked a low draw with those 4th streets? -
I might have completed third...but with all the low cards showing, this could weaken your hand a bit and this isnt a bad multiway hand anyway. As for 5th, the call for the low draw might be light, but your opponents are playing so weak, I think you still have some scooping potential. I dont believe the bettor has trips.
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Well, the 2007 National Heads Up Poker championship is in HD at the moment. It's better than watching it in normal definition. Better Picture. Is it that big of a deal? No.
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FYP.Call. but in general you should be giddy with being all in preflop with AA34 every single time. -
Unless I am reading this wrong, you are last to act on 4th. So checking gives a free card...which is hardly ever correct in a split pot game. Probably never correct in a limit split-pot game. Ace high showing should act first here right?If you would somehow be first to act on 4th, I would have definitely check-raised 4th given the opponents boards, I would have expected the opponent to bet.ty I thought I should have bet it too, but I was first to act and expected someone else to do the betting for me, and losing just one person on 4th really hurts the potential of this hand ya know? I will bet out next time I'm in this situation though. That's prob where I lost bets, but if someone raised and re-raised and pushed out that guy with the 10 j showing (the doofus that needed my queens to get the straight), I woulda been sad... -
Well the math for 1 card draws is fairly straight forward. probability of hitting for three draws is just: 1 - (#outs/#unknown cards at first draw)(#outs/#unknown cards at 2nd draw)(#outs/#unknown cards at 3rd draw)an expansion of the 4/2 rule for outs in hold 'em for triple draw is:5.5/4/2 so if you have an 8 outer with all 3 draws remaining, you are ~44% to hit it by the end. With 2 draws: ~32%. With 1 draw: ~16%Now drawing multiple cards...this gets more confusing for math, so there arent any simple rules here.lets say you have a smooth 2-card 7 draw with two high cards in your hand (i.e. 237KJ, 247QT, 267KQ, etc...): Whats the chance you'll end up with a 7? an 8? by the 3rd draw?Draw 1:Cards that help you improve to a 7: 128s: 4Cards that do not help you improve: 31Cards remaining in deck: 47Improve to a 7 on first draw:(12/47)(8/46) = 0.04440333No improvement:(31/47)(30/46) = 0.43015726Improve to a one card 7 draw:(12/47)(34/46) + (31/47)(12/46) = 0.360777058Improve to an 8 on the first draw:(16/47)(12/46) - (12/47)(8/46) = 0.04440333Improve to a one card 8 draw:(4/47)(34/46) + (31/47)(4/46) = 0.1202590192nd draw:Still drawing 2:Cards that help you improve to a 7: 128s: 4Cards that do not help you improve: 29Cards remaining in deck: 45Improve to a 7:(0.43015726)(12/45)(8/44) = 0.02085611No improvement thru 2 draws:(0.43015726)(29/45)(28/44) = 0.176407927Improve to a one card 7 draw:(0.43015726)(12/45)(32/44) + (0.43015726)(29/45)(12/44) = 0.15902784Improve to an 8:(0.43015726)(16/45)(12/44) - (0.43015726)(12/45)(8/44) = 0.02085611Improve to a one card 8 draw:(0.43015726)(4/45)(32/44) + (0.43015726)(29/45)(4/44) = 0.053009279Drawing 1 to a 7:Cards that help you improve to a 7: 88s: 4Cards that do not help you improve: 33Cards remaining in deck: 45Improve to a 7 or better:(0.360777058)(8/45) = 0.064138144Improve to an 8:(0.360777058)(4/45) = 0.0320690718 Still drawing 1 to a 7:(0.360777058)(33/45) = 0.2645698425Drawing 1 to an 8:Cards that help you improve to an 8: 12Cards that do not help you improve: 33Cards remaining in deck: 45Improve to an 8:(0.120259019)(12/45) = 0.03206907Still drawing 1 to an 8:(0.120259019)(33/45) = 0.08818994733rd Draw:Still Drawing 2 to a 7:Cards that help you improve to a 7: 128s: 4Cards that do not help you improve: 27Cards remaining in deck: 43Improve to a 7:(0.176407927)(12/43)(8/42) = 0.009377166Improve to an 8:(0.176407927)(16/43)(12/42) - (0.176407927)(12/43)(8/42) = 0.009377166No improvement: (3 total bricks)(0.176407927)(27/43)(26/42) = 0.068570523Improvement to a 4-card 8 low or better (still worthless):(0.176407927)(16/43)(30/42) + (0.176407927)(27/43)(16/42) = 0.08908307Drawing 1 to a 7:A.Drew 2 on 2nd draw:Cards that help you improve to a 7: 88s: 4Cards that do not help you improve: 31Cards remaining in deck: 43Improve to a 7:(0.15902784)(8/43) = 0.029586575Improve to an 8: (0.15902784)(4/43) = 0.014793287No improvement:(0.15902784)(31/43) = 0.114647978B. Drew 1 on 2nd draw:Cards that help you improve to a 7: 88s: 4Cards that do not help you improve: 32Cards remaining in deck: 44Improve to a 7:(0.2645698425)(8/44) = 0.0481036077Improve to an 8:(0.2645698425)(4/44) = 0.0240518039No improvement:(0.2645698425)(32/44) = 0.192414431Drawing 1 to an 8:A.Drew 2 on 2nd draw:Cards that help you improve to a 8: 12Cards that do not help you improve: 31Cards remaining in deck: 43Improve to an 8:(00.053009279)(12/43) = 0.01673339No improvement:(0.053009279)(31/43) = 0.0432279248B. Drew 1 on 2nd draw:Cards that help you improve to a 8: 12Cards that do not help you improve: 32Cards remaining in deck: 44Improve to an 8:(0.0881899473)(12/44) = 0.0240518No improvement:(0.0881899473)(32/44) = 0.0641381435Okay......now, the total chance of improving a 2 card 7 draw to a 7 is:0.04440333 + 0.02085611 + 0.064138144 + 0.009377166 + 0.029586575 + 0.0481036077 = 0.2164649327The total chance of improving a 2 card 7 draw to a 8 is: 0.04440333 + 0.02085611 + 0.0320690718 + 0.03206907 + 0.009377166 + 0.014793287 + 0.0240518039 + 0.014793287 + 0.0240518 = 0.2164649327So with a smooth 2 card 7 draw you have a 21.6% chance to improve to a 7 and a 21.6% chance to improve to an 8.In comparison, hitting a one card 8 draw is simply:1 - (35/47)(34/46)(33/45) = 0.59636139With a one card 8 draw you have a 59.6% chance to improve to an 8.What about a one card smooth 7 draw?1st draw:make 7: 8/47 = 0.17021277make 8: 4/47 = 0.08510638still drawing: 35/47 = 0.744680852nd draw:make 7: (35/47)(8/46) = 0.1295097make 8: (35/47)(4/46) = 0.0647549still drawing: (35/47)(34/46) = 0.550416283rd draw:make 7: (35/47)(34/46)(8/45) = 0.09785178make 8: (35/47)(34/46)(4/45) = 0.04892589fail to improve: (35/47)(34/46)(33/45) = 0.4036386With a smooth one card 7 draw you have a 39.8% chance of making a 7 and a 19.9% chance of making an 8.This reaffirms how strong this draw is.As far as pot odds go...you should pay attention to them obviously. But its more about good predraw selection and taking advantage of position. In a loose low limit game, if you raise your good hands predraw the pot will be bloated enough where quite a few one card draws are chasable. If you are drawing 1, and you are certain that the bettor is standing pat, you probably shouldnt call if you aren't getting 3 to 1 or better on the last draw. Rarely draw 2 on 3rd street (if ever)...the only way this can ever be an okay call is if you KNOW your opponent is drawing still...AND the pot is fairly large.Hi, Just read Dan N's chapter in SS2 on Triple draw and just would like to know how to calculate the odds of catching draws etc (a quick method for the table and a long version so I know how it works) so I can compare pot odds to te chances of drawing out etc.Also reading the chapter Dan doesn't really talk about pot odds when making decisions- is 2-7 not so much a pot odd game?Thanks for any help -
Bet out. Don't give low draws free cards. Get money in as the favorite. Might be betting this betting this in stud high on 4th too, betting it at this limit from the bring-in, they'll just think you have a pair of queens. The rest of the hand looks alright.
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FYP...and thankshttp://www.propokerschool.com/videos.htm#gank is stoned but intresting video -
Great post! But you're right, I am not aware of PL stud 8/b existing online.OP, you're a new poster, so i don't know how much you know, but you say you play all games and have played stud8/b, so I'll assume you've a good understanding of the limit game.PL stud8/b is a nice game, and i've played this and done very well in the past. I've never actually played it HU, but most of the games I play end up HU after 4th anyway, so hopefully my advice will help you.very useful info.... -
Against random opponents maybe, but he is playing a buddy here, so don't want to be too predictable. Hope you saved the longer post and hope things get better for you navy.i wrote a really long and great post and then thought better of it.low limit PLO8 SNGs, min-raise every button and c-bet 2/3rds pot every flop. fold every non-strong holding from the BB and rever raise from the BB. this will be enough to get a positive ROI in them, i swear.chamonyx, i've had a really rough life week, but will be back in full swing next week, i'll write you then. thank you for your patience. -
PL Stud 8/b?? The thought just scares me. I would think AA(baby) goes way up in value.I would discount three babies without an ace...unless they are suited or well connected.And if you are playing short or heads up. You can value big pairs more. KKQ (suited) is a slight fave over 345 (unsuited) headsup (I was a bit surprised by that)...Even A45 unsuited.It looks like big pairs are slight faves over most low hands heads up. The drawback playing these hands though is it is completely obvious whats in the hole usually. A big pair. A key in this game, I would think is to try to see most hands cheap and bail low hands if you brick on 4th (no pair or no low card).Another key...You must extract major value when you hit trips with your low hands. Most opponents will have a weaker high hand, and will call hoping to split.
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Call on 3rd is okay for half price. Coinflip vs. QQx on 3rd. 4th is spew...just check/call, the pot is big enough to chase against QQ. as played just fold 5th.zach, did he do a good job with the conversion?do you have any stud advice?i don't get this hand at all. why call on 3rd? why raise 4th? you're bluff can't successfully represent anything.this seems like the biggest spew to me. -
I am pretty sure you can get away with less than 300BB in Stud8 if you are beating the game for 2BB+/100, because its a split-pot game, which will naturally reduce the variance. However, and I am pulling this totally out of my *** as I have no stats, I feel like the variance is a bit higher in comparison to O8. Does anyone have a decent PT Stud8 database, and wouldn't mind sharing their Standard Deviation? Personally, I would guess that a 200+BB roll would be pretty reliable.this is the only BR post i could find in the stud forum.300x big bets is right for stud8?what is a typically great winrate?thoughts on variance, edge, etc?all stud8 -
A26 isn't a stellar hand either...but still much better than JJ4 because when you miss for low, you'll have a decent chance to back into Aces up which is much, much better than jacks up. Andrew Prock (creator of PokerStove) calculated Stud8 equities for 7-handed play (no folding), and almost any 3 low beats JJA (2 suited). JJA (2 suited) has a 7-handed equity of 17.9%, good for 528th of 1755 possible canonical hands. The following 3 card lows are worse than JJA (2 suited): 872 rainbow (538th, 17.4%), 873 rainbow (548th, 17.2%). As one plays tighter games, cases can be made to open up your starting hand distribution, and I would expect that naked big pairs would do better.JJ4 (2 suited) is only 0.4% more likely to win than a random hand 7-handed (721st, 14.7%). So this is a horrible call/complete early in a tourney IMO.In contrast, A26 rainbow is (154th, 24.7%).I hope not too many people read this post and take this to heart. But I am in a giving mood today.http://www.pokerstove.com/analysis/s8rankings.phpFunny...I was dealt JJ4 suited just now in my first 10 hands of sitting down at a ring game...I threw it away.It seems that general logic is that this hand should be folded preflop. This is something about stud 8/b that has never made sense to me. Yes, we are playing for half the pot when you want to be looking for scoop hands. But how is this any different than entering the pot with a hand like A26. While yes we've got some straight potential, the odds of hitting would be so low were basically playing for half the pot. I guess were drawing to making a pair of aces, but it still seems the main reason to play this hand is for a low draw and hope we back into some sort of high hand to go along with it. In lower buy in tourneys like this just about anyone with 3 cards lower than an 8 comes in on 3rd. At showdown pots are ususally 3-4 players, 2-3 of which started with crappy low cards and either hit a low or made ONE PAIR and call anyway. I think overlooking the high is a bad way to play these tourneys. Its not like we're against good oppenents where the pot will come down to us and our big pair and two low draws. So many players at this level don't make any adjustment and play low pairs and high cards as they do in regular stud. I think we gain enough value from mediocure high hands to play here. We have a pair higher than anyone elses door cards, on top of that its well hidden. The 4 up looks like we may be betting a strong 3 card low and intice worse high hands to come along. Granted I think they call regadless of how our hand looks.
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Flop isnt that good for you. But the pot is pretty dang big here already, so with the emergency low, you can argue a call here. No reason to raise, you're only ahead of a bluff. Turn makes your life better. If you call the flop, you have to call the turn.Raise the river. If you are against a bigger boat and a better low, that's unlucky, esp. since the 2 improves your low draw a lot here. You are taking more than half here more often than not.
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And this is why I crush low-limit stud8. And I do the exactly same thing, anyone who completes QxQ, JxJ, TxT outside of an ante steal position is immediately deemed a fish. I seriously love these players.the above post is ***-backwards stud8, imho. the idea behind stud8 isn't to make highs and charge lows, it's to make lows and luckbox your way into straights or flushes that scoop when you're freerolling some donk going nuts with kings up. if i see someone playing too many high cards in a stud8 session, i immediately label them a fish and proceed to take all their money. -
Fold. Don't play for half...it's not worth it.
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Went down to St. Louis this weekend. Worst Mixed game ever. It's NLHE and PLO with $5 blinds. So too rich for my blood. Played 3/6 limit with the donkeys instead and got most of my big hands cracked.
Aces + Nut Low Three Ways
in Other Poker Cash Games
Posted
LOL jammaments. Folding this against a LAG (even if he is a skillful LAG) would be just spewing $$.