Snowman
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Posts posted by Snowman
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I'm qpdbqp who played the first hour and a half or so. I'm not a very frequent poster, but still lurking.
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I agree that the article is on the simplistic side, but DN never says it is that black and white. The guys in the article are just examples.
This is something I'm not sure I get. Are you two saying that it's something inheritently good in taking risks per se? The way I see it, you can be very conservative with bankroll management and still aggressively take shots at higher limits with money you set aside for that purpose. Why would you ever need to put so much of your bankroll on the line that you risk going broke?I guess that for some people the risk works as a motivation to get better quicker so it is really the fastest way to get there (granted that they can get staked/rebuild if they go bust). That's the only pro I can see and it's a pretty scetchy one.If we take a close look at the risk taker. He can and will go broke quite often. Now the question is, how does he get back in action? In order to take those types of risks, you need to have borrowing power or the ability to be staked. -
I resent that. We're never not drunk.Yeah, imagine what they are like when they are ACTUALLY drunk.
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What brings me to folding in this hand is the caller in between. The image problem is less of an issue then, imo. It's also more likely we're either already beat and drawing very slim or having even fewer outs. And the extra caller doesn't help our odds much.Another thing is that we should make sure to call with good hands too, so that a call from us on the flop doesn't automatically mean we've missed, cause then we're just as exploitable, only it costs us more.I almost always call this flop.I don't think it's necessarily profitable on this particular play.But I think the call helps me in future plays.I want opponents to realize that if they intend on donk-betting a flop with bottom pair in a pot that I raised preflop, they are going to need to invest more bets and stay lucky to win that hand.I feel that if I fold these flops too often, villains fire donk bets at me all day with very weak holdings.--CM -
Agree. It's common that people peel the flop and then fold the turn. I won't put in any more bets though.think of all the overs he'll peel the flop with.Not many ppl continue past the turn w/K high, fire! -
I let this one go on the flop. If one of them has a king we're drawing very slim and it's also possible one of them is on a flush draw, devaluating our backdoor draw even more.
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I play it the same.
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I think calling turn and river > 3-betting.That way we always get to showdown for the same price as the 3-bet, free showdown. We are also likely to get the chance to raise the river if we hit, which makes the 3-bet on the turn less useful. Also when we're behind and he caps we have put in a lot of bets on the turn with an equity disadvantage.
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Hmm, normally I'm c/r-ing this flop, but maybe donk betting gets more money in there if he has an actual hand or think we're full of it. If he raises then we can c/r turn.I don't really like the turn line. I play these pots pretty straight forward and hope villain has something. We'll not make much when he doesn't have anything anyway.
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We're putting in 2 BBs to win 5.5BB so this has to succeed roughly 1 in 3 times to show a profit. I'm cool with that against an aggressive player who's capable of folding.
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I play it the same.
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I raise pf to isolate.As played I bet the flop. Button may raise and clear out the field for us in this pretty big pot.
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Depends a bit on the blinds but I generally like to raise here. We're ahead of villain's range and he's bad so we'd like to play him hu.
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I play it the same. Without SB in there I would 3-bet to increase fold equity on the flop.
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#1: I'm folding. Out of position with a hand that you're likely to win small or lose big with.#2: 3-betting this against most oppontents.#3: I'm folding this against this opponent. He's a bit on the tight side for me to 3-bet this. I think I'm folding against a 23/18 too though. Being out of position sucks. With a read that he has a tendency to give up easily when 3-bet then I'm 3-betting him.
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You're getting 7 to 1 odds to call and you have 10.75 to 1 odds to hit your straight. So you'll have to make up 2 BBs on the turn and river when you hit to make it profitable.If BB has hit something on that flop then you'll probably extract 3 BBs from him if you raise the turn and bet the river when you hit the gutshot. You'll most likely get 1 BB if he's got nothing and bets the turn and you raise him.So, I guess it dependes on how likely BB is to call you down. Having other loose passives in the hand of course makes it more likely you'll make up for the bad odds on the flop.In general I'd say it would be slightly profitable to call the flop, but that it's dependant on how BB plays.
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This doesn't mean anything about win rate though. Not trying to be an *** (lame filter), but 172.5 hours is roughly 4300 hands if you see 25 hands/hour (which is a figure I've seen thrown around a lot. I don't play live so I don't know). With a sample that small your true win rate can be way off.I'm not questioning your ability here, but getting a statistically significant sample size live takes a looong time.Alright, this made me take a look at my stats I have from the game I played at for a couple years while in school. It was 3/6 and 4/8 and the only game in town. They spread both limits, and I would say about 75% of the time I was playing, the game was 4/8. Rake was $3 + $1 for jackpot. I grabbed all my 2005 stats just to make the point. For that year, I put in 172.5 hours and made $14.64/hr.I ain't bragging (much) but even at low limits and the large rake it is definitely possible to beat the game. I am very glad to have moved on and up, but making twice minimum wage for a college student playing once a week on average isn't too bad. In fact, it is beating the game and the rake. -
Uhm, well, I hate June and I hate short-handed limit.First 5/10 in June:
After that run I went down to 3/6 to regroup, which has worked really well so far:
Worst run yet in my poker career. -
I had a pretty bad streak with KK when I started playing 3/6. After having it 40-45 times it was my 19th most profitable hand (BB/hand), right after the monsters A3s and J8s.Btw, I'm in a much gloomier mood than this post might indicate. 150BB down swings tend to do that to me...Yeah, yeah...seriously though...look through your PT records. Any streaks with AA/KK/QQ? -
What about a raise on the flop for a free card on the turn? Do we have enough equity to risk that?I like the flop and turn, the flop is an easy call because you cant knock anybody out of the hand with a raise. -
I normally raise, bet/fold turn UI and check behind on the river.If we get 3-bet I give an unknown credit for a J or an 8 and fold the turn unimproved. Probably don't even have the odds to call the 3-bet, but I don't like raise/folding hu.Edit: And at 1/2 6-max I don't think we'll fold a better hand often enough to try.
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That's how I usually play it. Once in a while I call down against a villain with stats like that.
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A couple of questions:How do you define how large a step is in a random walk model of this?Is an asymmetric random walk a random walk, but with different probabilities as to which direction a step is taken?Finally, could you do this with Markov chains? Once upon a time I used to know how Markov chains worked and I have a feeling this could be solved by using them.(I hope my questions make sense...It's a bit more complicated and would need a mathematical derivation that I'm way too lazy to derive right now. It wouldn't be difficult to model it using an asymmetric random walk, but may take some time. )
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I found this link for calculating RoR:http://www.bet-the-pot.com/bankroll-standa...ion-page43.htmlIm not sure either, but i believe that 15 is usually a safe estimate. Most people tend to be lower.In 80k hands, im hovering just at about 14. Thanks for the information by the way. Im trying to create a comprehensive excel sheet that calculates all of these things. Any chance you know how to calculate this or have a link to a thread that explains how?
Lhe Challenge(?) Thread
in General Poker Forum
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