Let's break this down:Chances of success/failure = [(Winrate * Bankroll)/Intelligence (where Intelligence > 0)] - GF situation + Z (where Z represents the amount of wins the Cubs end up with this year)Let's add in a few more variables, Q and X, just to make this a bit more confusing and unnecessary.Now I need some people to fill in the unknowns by coming up with some ranges for all possible inputs.All in all, it looks like you will probably succeed, but I enjoy doing ridiculous calculations and playing Devil's Advocate for no apparent reason, so let's get some exact numbers to be sure.