monix
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Posts posted by monix
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Thanks for the love!The last time I showed up and spent a few hours in the tourney forum, I was wildly flamed....BartWoohoo Bart's back. -
I am in...have not played in ages. And I do not mean just the Neg O...any poker.
I hope to see a bunch of old friends.Bart -
I did not see a shove in the OP? I'd call for these reasons.I'm not sure what i feel about the shove...like, i know that we can get called by worse, but i also think that he can check the flush on the turn and fire the river a lot of the time. As well as if he spiked 2 pair with KQ on the turn, he firing his boat. I think we have to just call here and not get ourselves in a high variance spot....i mean, i don't think we are ever gonna get called by worse a lot of the time and we don't need to turn our hand into a bluff -
I'd put in a ~ pot-sized raise, to 700.
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You know, you could have told him this. Or given him the answer with a request to do this the next time.Not lie to him...His screen name is "New2FCP" with less than a 100 posts...give him a break. Someone gave you a few at one time or another.You know, he could have just searched it on google and probably found the answer much quicker, without the sarcasm too. -
Agree with everything here, except for shipping over the button open. 27BB seems like you are too deep for that; I'd prefer 3-betting to ~21,000.You might think youre repping a big pair, but no villain is going to put you on that, so your rep fails. No one flats big pairs from the blinds to a button open.You do realize that if he had A7/A8, the way you played this, even if you turned over your cards as KK, he'd still correctly call your shove, right?This is FPS. Just reship over the button open. -
He asked an honest question and wanted a answer. No wonder I don't post here any more...Wow you all just got insanely leveled by about 8 posters -
I don't think you have any fold equity; Villain 2 is getting almost 3.3:1 to call your shove.That's one of the aspects I'm interested in... So you do not think I have much fold equity? But one thing to note also is that I've been playing supper tight and this is like the first time I did this. -
I am surprised that so many people are saying that this is not the nuts. I have always heard this situation to be called the nuts, knowing that it may not be so by the river. I've also heard the term "mortal nuts", referring to a hand that is the nuts on the flop, and will also be the nuts at the river.As an aside, in Omaha it is common to refer to a hand being the nuts on the flop or turn, but being vulnerable to re-draws. As a result, it it often wise to "muck the nuts" if you are being free-rolled.
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LOL...trust me, I play way more hands than AA pre-flop.The question at hand is "Do we risk our tournament life where we are behind so many hands?" If your edge is so great against this field that you disrespect so much, why not wait for a better spot?If it were up to Monix we would never play a hand EXCEPT AA. Even then, we'd have to fold the flop unless it came out AAK, but even then there's a chance for a royal flush so we'd have to play it very cautiously. -
Thanks for the respect. I have not posted in ages due to two new jobs back-to-back in the last two years. I’ve enjoyed talking about hands.What range do we put villain on? And then let’s do some math.What are all hands could he play this way? How about 55, 22, 75, 52, (it was sooted!), XcXc, and some random bluff, like a missed straight draw with 34o (no raise PF, so we’ll ignore KK).Hands that beat us - there are 3 combos each of 22 and 55, 2 combos of suited 52, and 7 combos of AcXc; that is 15 hands.Hands we beat – Let’s narrow down these hands to hands that a “reasonable” player would c/r the flop and bluff the river (we’ll put the rest in the pure bluff category); 4c5c, 5c6c and probably 3c4c; 3 hands.So against a “reasonable” player’s range, we are a 5:1 dog.Let’s say that we want only a 60:40 edge (a little better than a coin flip) committing our stack this early in the tournament. Therefore Villain must be wildly overplaying the flop and wild ass bluffing the river with another 35 hand combos (15/40% - 3). There are only 9 remaining 0 and 1-gap club combos (98, 97, 87, 86, 64, 53, 42 and 32). So we’d have to add a bunch of other club combos, random one pair hands, etc. to get this anywhere close to a call.Let’s assume this is a 100 player tournament, we have no edge on the field and no one has been knocked out yet. If we fold, our equity drops to ~0.6%. If we call and win it increases to ~2%, but we are long way from the money. If we call and lose, our equity drops to 0.Remember that famous cliché; you cannot win in the early stages of a tournament, only lose…Having played a ton of donkaments, with all due respect to Bart, there is no way I'm folding this. -
Pushing AKs pre-flop knocked me out of the Main Event, so I may be biased against itopeners range: any pair, A6s+, A9o+, KTs+, KJo plusWe have to remember that the CO raised and the button 3bet, which can a lot of the time be a steal and a lot lighter of a range...but i will narrow it down a little...his is prolly ATs+,99+, and KJs+.We also have to realize that this is a tournament, and like everyone sucks...so they are doing this with a huge range. We have wayyyy more than enough Not to mention the sheer fact that we only have 19bbs and we have AK! Ok, now do the math with your ranges.
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I don't have time for more than a quick response, but here are two important observations.
OP said 8 seats pay. I like your approach, but recalculate knowing that there are more seats available.If my logic is correct, with 5 seats playing...
Only if you are shortie. If you are assured a seat in a satellite, it is incorrect to play any hand, including AA.With a big stack you really have the ability to abuse a satellite bubble. -
Ok...suggest a range and do the math to show us folding is horrible.No folding is a horrible move here. We have 19bbs and we have an open. Openers range is a lot wider than you give credit. This is always a shove, no questions...this is a very standard shove, and i think OP knows this -
Perhaps your approach to tournaments is different than mine (which is fine), but we are here to explore and learn from different perspectives.Survival in tournaments is everything, and in satellites survival is even more important since squeaking into the money is the same as winning (accumulating chips is less important). On that flop we are either way behind a flopped flush (2:1), or way ahead of anyone with a single club (7:3). Given that action, we are forced to commit our stack without knowing which side of the WA/WB we are.Without knowing all the chip stacks we cannot do a complete ICM calculation of equity, but let's assume that by check folding that flop the hero is still in 4th place, and will make the money 75% of the time.Now, let’s assume we call the push. If we win we have 7,430 and are in (no better) than 2nd place. Our chance to cash goes to maybe 80 or 85%?If we call and lose, we drop to 1,615 (M ~3) and fall to second worst at our table. Our chance to cash now drops to perhaps 15%? 25%?So to improve our chances of cashing by 5 to 10%, we risk dropping 50 to 60%. We would have to be hugely ahead of our opponents range to justify risking our chip stack in this position; even a 70/30 edge, which we are not sure we have gets us there:The best case scenario is (30%*25%)+(70%*85%)= 67%. Compared to 75% this is a clear/check fold.This could prolly be the worst option -
Interesting spot. Generally I am not looking to flip with so many players left in a STT.I dusted off my ICM calculator to see what the math suggests.I - Hero's equity before the hand is 19.9%II - Folding Scenarios1) If the initial raiser folds, our equity becomes 18.9%If the initial raiser pushes and is called (I'll only do these two scenarios):2) If the initial raiser wins our equity is 20.7%3) If the initial raiser loses our equity is 16.6%III - We push scenarios4) If no one calls our equity becomes 25.1%Initial raiser folds, raiser calls (only two scenarios here as well):5) If we win our equity becomes 29.1%6) If we lose our equity becomes 10.8%Now let’s assign some probabilities and calculate weighted averages::Folding Scenarios1) Pretty likely, say 66%2) I’ll split the difference with the remaining 2; 16%3) 16% Our equity is (18.9% * 66%) + (20.7% * 16%) + (16.6% * 16%) = 18.4%Pushing Scenarios4) Pretty unlikely; say 10%We have to use PokerStove to see what our equity against Villains range is. With that fishy raise let’s assume TT+, AQs, AQo, and Hero is a 51/49 dog (this is about as good as it gets, it we add more pairs and/or eliminate AQ we become a pretty big dog).5) 51%6) 49%Our equity is (25.1%*10%)+(29.1%*51%)+(10.8%*49%) = 22.6%If we remove AQ, the range becomes TT+, AKs, AKo, we become a 59.6/40.4 dog:Our equity is (25.1%*10%)+(29.1%*40.4%)+(10.8%*59.6%) = 20.7%If we remove AK, JJ and TT, the range becomes QQ+, we become a 69.1/30.9 dog:Our equity is (25.1%*10%)+(29.1%*30.9%)+(10.8%*69.1%) = 18.6%SummaryIt all comes down to what range do we put the raiser on, and how we allocate probabilities, but the numbers suggest that a push is +ceV….but it is close. Folding is not much of a mistake.
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Raising pre-flop is OK, but as a "small-ball" player Iprefer checking in teh BB.I'd check the flop and see what happens.As played, I'd check the turn and see what happens.Calling the river bet is ok, but I might be able to find a fold.
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Please read this post:http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...showtopic=97833If you want quality feedback, please run your hand history through a converter.Welcome to the forum!will do! thanks, where can i find out how to post the illustrated tables like the ones in other posts? -
I agree with Hero's need to play, however I'd check this very dangerous flop and see what happened.
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Easy fold this early in the tournament. Doubling up does not out-weigh the risk of busting.
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Tough fold, but a fold nonetheless. After folding Hero still has 2,000 chips and lots of play.He is behind so may hands that would take this line; flopped sets and AcXc (especially Ac5c). He is only ahead of a nut-job bluff or an idiot overplaying a weaker flush.
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You did not indicate the other players chip stacks, which is important.Assuming they are ~ average, you should raise pre-flop; to about 4.5 x BBBlinds 100/200. I have about 9k in chips, which is a little above average. I'm in the BB with KQo, UTG limps in, folds around to the SB who makes the call.
Since you did not raise PF, you now need to raise the SB's flop bet; to about 2100 should be good (not knowing chip stacks is a problem).Flop: K-7-5 rainbow. SB bets 600, Hero calls, UTG raises to 1200. SB folds, Hero calls.
You have not indicated any strength; you checked the flop, called a flop bet, and then called a raise. What do you think Villain puts you on? Weak K, or maybe 86 or 64? Either re-raise his flop bet or fold.After butchering pre-flop and the flop, you need to check/fold the turn.And by the way, never show your cards if you don't have to. Ever.Flop: K-7-5 rainbow. SB bets 600, Hero calls, UTG raises to 1200. SB folds, Hero calls. -
I don't remember the last time he actually played the NegO...And while I am at it, DN has not spent much time at this forum since he signed with PokerStars...Plus I think Daniel should play every week. -
Congratulations on your fabulous victory!
Wsop Event #41 $1,500 Limit Holdem Shootout
in General Poker Forum
Posted
Congratulations - well deserved!!Bart