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source99

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Posts posted by source99

    Play Better When I'm Paying Less Attention

    in General Strategy

    Posted

    I took a pretty solid break from poker for a while and since I came back i have noticed what i consider a pretty disturbing trend. I have a consistently higher win rate when I am paying less attention to specific players and their actions. When I am paying less attention to specific players I might be getting more into the flow of the game and just moving along. maybe I am trying to get too fancy against specific players. This is at a 2/4 NL cash game(max buy in of 200). thoughts?

    Question About Tournament Entries

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    There is a $1060 entry tournament next monday. I went in to purchase an entry today and they have already started selling alternate entries even though they are still running sit-n-go satellites. Is it fair to run satellites for guaranteed seats when they are only selling alternates?should I complain?

    Play Money Whoring On Pokerstars

    in General Poker Forum

    Posted

    I don't get it either but I have seen on World of Warcraft that people are willing to pay real money for fake money in the game. and then use the fake money in the game to buy fake stuff in the game. There is actually an industry of people who sit around earning fake gold to sell to real people for real money.

    Flush Fun Poker Math

    in General Strategy

    Posted

    OK, I also ran a simulation, and got similar numbers. And no, I'm not posting my code (which I wrote without looking at source99's code).I also checked if the 3-or-more case adds anything, and it's hard to tell because you have to run so many simulations at this noise level, but it appears to add about 0.02% or 0.03% for *at least* 3 people will having hearts (as compared to *exactly* 3 people having hearts).The other thing to note: if you are asking this as result of it having happened, you really need to multiply the percentages by 4, because you'd be wondering whether it had happened in hearts, spades, clubs, or diamonds. So in that case, just over 3% of the time (3.2 - 3.6, by my estimate), 3 (or more) people will get dealt two cards the same suit. Then, given that three people have received soooted cards, it's about 1/4th of 1 percent of the time the flush will hit on the flop, or about 1 in 400. The chance that both occur on the very next hand is (3.4/100 * 1/400) = 3.4/40000, or about 1 out of 11700.The above calculations are based on it occurring on a specific hand.If you are asking because it occurred on a given night, you'd have to account for how many hands you played that night.If you are asking because it happened in your lifetime, you need to account for how many hands you've played in your life to figure out the odds of *ever* seeing this happen.
    just curious why you don't want to post your code?

    Flush Fun Poker Math

    in General Strategy

    Posted

    Looks like Frez's numbers are about double source99's numbers (after adjusting by the factor of 4). Anyone know why?Looks to me like source99's code allows the same card to be dealt multiple times; I don't know what that would do to the probabilities.source99, if/when you rerun can you give us the number of exactly 2 hands of same suit, and 4+ as well as exactly 3? I'm curious. Thanks!
    I assure you that is not the case. If you look through the first half of code i have @deck and i reset it for each deal and then remove the cards as they are used. the code itself is fairly straightforward without anything fancy and complicated to understand@deck[] is the deck. I set @deck[0] = 1@deck[1] = 1...@deck[51] = 1giving us 52 cards.then i deal out 20 hole cards as player 1 = down1a, down2aplayer 2 = down2a, down3a...player 10 = down10a, down10ball the while i am dealing i am recording which cards i use with @deck[$number] = 0. then when i deal the next card i check to see if its already been usedfinally i deal out 3 flop cards flop1flop2flop3then i check each player's hand to see if they are both suited and i increment the variable suited if they are.after i have checked all player hole cards i check to see if EXACTLY 3 were suitedand if exactly 3 players were suited i check to see if the flop is all the same suitthen i just report the total results. if anyone has any questions please post or PM. when i have some time i will rewrite to account for all suits.

    Flush Fun Poker Math

    in General Strategy

    Posted

    this thread appears to be an abortion of probability.This is not an easy question.Has anyone even considered that the unknown hands can't be HH?It's pretty tough to read some of thee postsThere is certanly a closed solution to this but I like simulation programps. good to see Dane is not even pretending to not be Dane.
    my simulation takes into account exactly 3 players have HH. problem with my simulation is it only takes into account one of the suits(for agruments sake lets say hearts). i'm not sure how the probabilty changes when you want to run it for any suit. i can fix it a bit at work tomorrow to take into account if it happens for any suits. anybody understand what i am saying?

    Flush Fun Poker Math

    in General Strategy

    Posted

    #I ran a computer simulation of 10 million hands and the results i got werei only tried this for 1 specific suitexactly 3 suited hands = 87084 = 0.84%both conditions true = 236 = 0.00236%total hands dealt = 10000000here is the code i used#!/usr/bin/perlprint "dealing hands\n";while($deals < 10000000){ $deals++; if($deals % 10000 == 0){ print "$deals\n"; } for($i = 0; $i < 52; $i++){ @deck[$i] = 1; } $down1a = -1; $down1b = -1; $down2a = -1; $down2b = -1; $down3a = -1; $down3b = -1; $down4a = -1; $down4b = -1; $down5a = -1; $down5b = -1; $down6a = -1; $down6b = -1; $down7a = -1; $down7b = -1; $down8a = -1; $down8b = -1; $down9a = -1; $down9b = -1; $down10a = -1; $down10b = -1; $flop1 = -1; $flop2 = -1; $flop3 = -1; $suited = 0;#1 while($down1a < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down1a = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($down1b < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down1b = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } }#2 while($down2a < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down2a = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($down2b < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down2b = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } }#3 while($down3a < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down3a = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($down3b < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down3b = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } }#4 while($down4a < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down4a = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($down4b < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down4b = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } }#5 while($down5a < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down5a = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($down5b < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down5b = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } }#6 while($down6a < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down6a = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($down6b < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down6b = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } }#7 while($down7a < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down7a = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($down7b < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down7b = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } }#8 while($down8a < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down8a = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($down8b < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down8b = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } }#9 while($down9a < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down9a = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($down9b < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down9b = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } }#10 while($down10a < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down10a = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($down10b < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $down10b = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($flop1 < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $flop1 = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($flop2 < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $flop2 = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } while($flop3 < 0){ $number = int(rand(52)); if(@deck[$number] == 1){ $flop3 = $number; @deck[$number] = 0; } } #print "hand1 = $down1a $down1b\n"; #print "hand2 = $down2a $down2b\n"; #print "hand3 = $down3a $down3b\n"; #print "hand4 = $down4a $down4b\n"; #print "hand5 = $down5a $down5b\n"; #print "hand6 = $down6a $down6b\n"; #print "hand7 = $down7a $down7b\n"; #print "hand8 = $down8a $down8b\n"; #print "hand9 = $down9a $down9b\n"; #print "handa = $down10a $down10b\n"; if(($down1a < 13) & ($down1b < 13)){ $suited++; } if(($down2a < 13) & ($down2b < 13)){ $suited++; } if(($down3a < 13) & ($down3b < 13)){ $suited++; } if(($down4a < 13) & ($down4b < 13)){ $suited++; } if(($down5a < 13) & ($down5b < 13)){ $suited++; } if(($down6a < 13) & ($down6b < 13)){ $suited++; } if(($down7a < 13) & ($down7b < 13)){ $suited++; } if(($down8a < 13) & ($down8b < 13)){ $suited++; } if(($down9a < 13) & ($down9b < 13)){ $suited++; } if(($down10a < 13) & ($down10b < 13)){ $suited++; } if($suited ==3){ #print "found $suited suited hands\n"; $suited_3++; if(($flop1 < 13) & ($flop2 < 13) & ($flop3 < 13)){ print "second condition true also\n"; $both_conditions_true++; } } } print "3 suited hands = $suited_3\n"; print "both conditions true = $both_conditions_true\n"; print "total hands dealt = $deals\n";

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