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einbert

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Posts posted by einbert

  1. Hey, I am a small stakes player too. I worked my BR up from $300 at .5/1 to about $2000, and I'm currently playing at the 2/4 level. I play basically according to SSHE strategy, and I have to say it has really been working well for me so far. I also understand the reasoning behind the plays I make, and I think this is very important. I would also STRONGLY reccommend that you do go by the 300 BB rule. I think that by playing on a short bankroll, not only do you increase your chance of going broke, but if you are having weekly swings of up to a third of your bankroll (very very possible even with a 200 or 300 BB BR), that could really shake your confidence. I would highly reccomend taking the BR you have and depositing it into an online poker site so you can play with a 300 BB BR. No matter how good your play is, loose-passive limit games are naturally very very high variance ordeals. You could play near-perfect poker and easily drop 50 BB in several hours of play. If that is a quarter of your bankroll, isn't that going to shake your confidence? Anyway, these are just my suggestions. As far as the PF plays....

    Q10s from CO, 3 limpers
    This is at the very least a call, you're giving up a lot of value if you fold this here. Honestly raising isn't that bad either, especially if the blinds are loose. I call about 80% of the time, raise the other 20%.
    A10 offsuit 1st position
    I fold this. It's just not that strong a hand, especially if the table is full of coldcallers (probably is given your description). You'll often be coldcalled by a dominated hand out of position with this hand, and it's just not worth playing. If it were suited I would limp, but offsuit I think this is a definite fold.
    K10 offsuit on the button, 3 limpers
    I fold this, but calling isn't that bad either. Your hand is possibly dominated and you don't have straight of flush potential which is very important in a multiway pot.
    67s button, 2 limpers
    This is a little tougher than the QTs, but for me it is a call. You have a hand with a lot of potential in a multiway pot, and you know these loose passives will pay you off bigtime whenever you make your hand (straight, flush, trips, or two pair). Also consider playing more PP in early position and Axs and even Kxs on the button with several limpers. These are all profitable hands--even if they do add a little bit of variance to your game they will dramatically increase your longterm winrate.
  2. Well let me clarify a little more. Here is the reason I would make this call at any point.Against AA or KK, you have 9 spades + 5 outs to pair or trips twice. Add an additional one out for the backdoor straight draw with one gap (754) and you get a total of 15 outs against only their two redraws. Subtract half an out because if your opponent has an overpair with the As or Ks they have a higher flush redraw, and I think you can come up with a pretty accurate figure of 14.5 outs twice. Hitting a 13 out draw with two cards to come is even money, but 14.5 outs is almost 60%! You're a 3-2 favorite, this is not a coin flip! The only hand you can be afraid here is a set, and against a set you have 9 outs twice--making you roughly a 3-2 underdog. In a tournament, especially late, I don't mind making calls for all my chips if I am fairly certain that I am a 3-2 favorite. I would have to have more than 25 big blinds left (after my raise on the flop, which is a play I'll always make) to make this laydown.EDIT: Actually you are right, it is closer to a coinflip than the 3-2 figure I was getting. However, I think given the pot odds (about 3-1) and the fact that you have invested half your chips into the pot and if you fold you will be fairly shortstacked (about 400 chips ~= 20 BB but you'll have less than half the average stack at the table) make calling the right play here.After thinking through the entire hand a little more, I kind of prefer moving in on the flop to a standard-sized raise. Yes, you'll probably still get called by AA or KK but you're less likely to have to put your money in against a coinflip situation. However, if you move in here there is a higher chance that an overpair (particularly a more vulnerable one, TT or JJ) would fold. I think I would have done that to put my opponent to a decision for all his chips rather than give him the chance to bully me out of the pot. Also I think flat-calling on the flop and waiting to see the turn card (which is going to significantly affect your odds of winning the hand). If it's a spade or if it gives you two pair or trips, you can safely move in knowing you almost certainly have the best hand. If it's a blank, you know that you are now significantly behind and you can probably make the laydown and keep half your remaining chips. There is also the chance that a flat call on the flop will give you a free card on the turn, where a standard raise on the flop is almost always going to be responded with an all-in (I think). If a 6 comes on the turn you will improve to an open-ended straight draw as well as your other draws, and your opponent is likely to give you a free card because of the scare card (if you were on a straight draw). It's a pretty complicated hand to play I guess.Does anyone else think flat-calling is perhaps more effective? I'm really not sure what I would do in this situation. The most likely scenario I can see for making this laydown is being in a satellite tournament, where for example maybe the top ten players get a seat in a bigger tourney but 11th place gets nothing and you have a big chip stack. In that case, though, I wouldn't have played 78s in the first place.Just thought I'd give a little more reasoning as to why I feel very inclined to make this call. I can understand the logic behind folding (you feel you can wait and get your chips in in a better spot), but also realize that you have already invested nearly half of your chips in this pot--therefore, I think calling for all your chips is clearly the right play. If you aren't prepared to make the call, maybe you should have just flatcalled on the flop and tried to hit your draw for cheap.Just my $.02 :D.

  3. I think you could have folded from middle position to an UTG raise with 78s, but calling for a raise of just the minimum is probably not an awful play, especially early in the tournament if you have more than the average stack. If you play 78s and flop top pair, a flush draw and a backdoor straight draw, you have to be absolutely this flop. On the flop, you absolutely did the right thing by raising the initial bet, I don't think anyone will argue with that. When he reraises you all in, I think you can make an easy call. The only hands that have you beat are a set because you're only drawing to 9 outs against a lot of redraws (you're beat pretty badly here, but that hand is also fairly unlikely) and A7 with the ace of spades, because then you're drawing to 3 outs against a possible higher flush redraw. AK of spades also has you beat I believe, but I really think you have to make this call. Most of the time you're facing an overpair at most, and you're a favorite against that (very likely) hand. If he flopped a set, he would be more likely to slow play his hand by check raising instead of betting out (I think this is a huge tendency in online SnG tournaments).I would make that call at any point in any tournament, and for all my chips. The only way I could fold that hand on that flop is if I'm more than 50% sure that my opponent has a set, and the action didn't indicate that at all. I think you played this hand very well postflop. I wouldn't have called preflop but it's not necessarilly a bad call either.

  4. You have to figure all the ways you can beat KK, like by making a straight or a flush if your AK is suited. Your chances of simply hitting another ace (if his cards are KK) are 3/46+3/45+3/44+3/43+3/42 or about 34%. However, your opponent will improve some of that time enough to beat your pair of aces, so you won't win a full 34% of the time. The best way to calculate this situation fully is to take every possible full 5 card board and determine the number of boards that give you the best hand and the number of boards that give your opponent the best hand. The actual figure for AKo against KK is somewhere around 70%-30% (in favor of KK of course). For AKs it's closer to 67%-33%. Here's a useful tool for calculating these situations:http://cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem.php#Hope that helps!

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