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Naslund44

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Posts posted by Naslund44

  1. http://www.philhellmuth.com/articles.html?id=50At the end of this article, Phil talks about how it can be correct to fold aces pre-flop, in a situation similar to this. I don't understand your argument at all. You grant him that he has a lock on the seat, implying that he has a 100% chance to win something, and it is impossible to gain anything besides this. He has maxed out his EV, just by folding, and you admit this. The only thing that deviating from this strategy of folding can accomplish is to lower his EV, or to keep it constant. Is it not clear that if he loses an allin with his AA, to say a guy with 4000, then his odds of winning the seat decrease? And if wins the allin, his chances stay the same, ie. 100%?The only way your argument could make sense is of course to argue that he does not "have a lock" on the seat.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Edit: I've taken the time to write for you a possible defence.Dear RodReynoldsMy statement "Sure you have a lock on the seat" was not meant to imply a 100% success rate of winning said seat. This of course is impossible. Strange things can happen. I suggest that he only had a 98% chance of winning the seat by folding. Let us now, to simplify the argument, that he runs into a man with a 2000 chipstack. BigD raises w AA, and is reraised allin by this guy. Should he call? Let us say he has an 80% of winning the hand, and that if he wins, he has a 99% chance of winning the seat, and if he loses, he has a 95% chance of winning. So, we average over all events, and his average chance of winning is 0.8(.99) + 0.2(0.95) = 0.982. So, he has increased his chances by 0.2%. I told you he should play AA, you ignorant fool! Also, let's ignore the fact that I made up very many figures to support my claim. I win.Sincerely,Flintsword
    snipe :club:
  2. It is a small world, sir.
    ya but, kelowna isnt that big, and to have the final 2 out of 2k come from here is pretty crazy, i railed both from top 64 down to 16 but left and almost crapped my pants when i came back and saw the results, i saw them talking in between matches and they both played in private game(one that i've yet to find)....small small world
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