Cue

Other people keep throwing scenerios at me so I throw some back.My point is that people on this forum like to treat everything like an absolute. NEVER...ALWAYS...ETC.And the truth is it depends on situation...on read.You yourself admit you might think differently in the first hand of the WSOP. WHY? Because you consider the situation, the timing, your read and the cards.If the situation was like everyone said, if it was absolute, then I could never offer up any scenerio where you would consider a fold, EVER. Even if you were on the bubble for 5 payouts over $1 Million dollars or other. the

I did mention that the guy caught his boat.And when people realize that you can catch what you are looking for and still fold they would have made a big break through.You can be on an opened ended straight draw and hit it but the card that brings it also brings a flush and you can fold. it is not always about what you hit but also about what you put your opponents on. What is his draw. What is made. I can't believe the number of people who keep raising this issue as if only the cards in their hands matter.

thank you for your constructive criticisms.And yes I have read many pro's who avoid coin flips in tourneys and prefer to play many smaller pots. That is definately my style.I take your criticism to heart about showing the straight. it is correct. Showing was a mistake.In my calculation I could make a disastrous call (and be out) but not a disastrous fold as I was still in and in healthy shape. I had calculated that if I had to be wrong then I would rather be wrong and still in the game then wrong and out.If you live in TO and ever want to go out ot Fallsview i drive out their 4 times a wee

You have a strange idea of what opinions and are and how they should be taken.Did you see the Davinci code? What is your opinion? Because I ask do I have to agree?Do you agree with the Iraq war? What is your opinion? Do I have to agree?I seek opinion to consider them and challenge my own thoughts on the subject. it is a process of learning. And you don't only learn if you simply agree like a sheep. I have never, NOT ONCE, disrespected anyones opinion who thinks I played it wrong. I have weighed all their words carefully. And maybe in a week or month or years time I come to the conclus

There are adjustments that are made for ring games versus freeze out tourney's versus re-buy tourneys. That is what I was detailing...not results.And no, you are wrong. the flush draw will just win x% of the time.

What if this is your first trip to the WSOP? You are in day 1 session 1 and the room is full of donks.You know you probably have the best hand but all around you people are pushing and calling all in with any two cards. They are playing it like a rebuy tourney. Do you play it exactly the same as later in the tourney or do you adjust?I know a lot of pro's avoid the early stages because they don't want to catch a good hand and bust to a suck out and they know the odds of that are great early despite the fact that chasers would be giving them great pot odds.Many say they avoid the big pots and

Listening =/= agreeingI am certainly listening to everything said. Further to that I am considering it all very seriously. I don't necessarily agree with everything said nor do I think I have to.And I admit that maybe that is a limitation I have as a player as it seems pretty clear that people are saying that even tourney specialists like Todd Brunson should push all-in pre money if he has a slight +EV against a complete poker newbie...and risk the coin flip rather then playing for better percentages at better times.I just can't agree with people whose poker outlook is that black and white a

heh. you got me. this was all about stroking my ego and as planned it worked so well.

No I am not. You are. Again there are 4 outcomes from two situations. My read is either right or wrong.Read right = 1 - the odds are that I do not win this hand and am 60% to lose and they hit2 - they miss and I winRead wrong =1 - they have lesser draws (even top pair can improve to beat me) and hit to beat me2- they have lesser draws and miss yes. That is actually what would have happened had I called as the boat came. yes. If I read it wrong and they had a lesser draw the odds of me winning the hand would have been in my favour. explain??? Indeed. people will always be different. Fa

You could be right. But it could also be a risk/reward scenerio that both you and I play differently.For me the two outcomes, 'right and bust' versus 'wrong and improve position', did not merit my call in that situation. In others maybe...but not on that day.

This is the best response so far IMO.It was my opinion and my gut that told me in that instance that I should not gamble here. I usually do but for whatever reason my read was saying no. i trusted it and went with it. My examination had me out if my read was right and only improved (albeit greatly) if I was wrong.

the only one twisting the situation is you. You are saying the two scenerios I faced were both win win.I painted the correct scenerios. My read is either right or wrong. If it is right there are two outcomes. they catch or they dont. If they don't catch my read was right but my non call wrong as I would have got paid. If they do catch then my read was right and non-call was good as it kept me in the game.If my read is wrong then there are still two outcomes. They either catch or they don't. But the odds are much greater in my favour and I gave up a great chance to make a huge pot.I hav

And I simply don't get that.If Todd Brunson is heads up against a guy who learned how to play poker today and both are staked with X dollars I cannot see how it is not -EV for him to go into a coin flip against this guy even if he is the marginal favorite.Given time and enough shuffles Todd is almost 100% to beat this guy. WHy would he take the 50+1%??

Yes. In a cash game I never lay this down because of pot odds. In a tournament where my downside is absolute (I am out) and my upside is only improved position (and I am already set to hit the money as long as I don't gamble all my chips on a coin flip) and where I put myself at 60% to lose then I do not call for pot odds.

I acknowledged my reads can always be wrong and why in this case my gut was telling me it wasn't. But that being said I still recognize my gut could be wrong. So then I considered the ramifications of of being wrong in either scenerio. One had me busted out (making the call) and the other had me still in the game and in good position for the final table.I am not calling for a blanket fold here. I guess the question is more of... 'can you ever trust your read that much when in a situation where your down side is absolute (no chance to recover) and your upside only means improved position.'

heh - good catch.Typing to fast. Responding to too many posts.

forget scenerio then. All you know is that if you call and push you are 60% to lose. Do you call?Does your answer really change if I simply change that scenerio to 1, 2 or 3 players??

thx. that is how I felt.I was looking at 1- a worst case scenerio where I folded and the hands were a missed flush draw and top two pair and I cursed myself for the bad read but played on.OR2 -Calling and being right in my read and being out.To me if I had to be wrong here then situation 1 was favourable to 2 as I believed I was one of the better players in the field and could recover from 1. There was no recovery from 2.And for whatever reason I was as sure as I have ever been that it was trips and Nut flush. With both these guys going ALL-In and neither being the preflop raiser I did not

Your post is unquotable so the above will have to do.1. - Yes you do but that does not mean you have to enter into all of them.2 - yes and 60% to lose.3 - Indeed and anyone with any common sense knows that if you give Todd Brunson that exact same percentage situation heads up against 10 players who have never even played poker before he SHOULD NOT take it. He will only win 4 times (if he is lucky and hits his odds) against players who have NEVER played poker whereas if he folds and plays it out he wins probably all 10. WHy negate his advantage to a flip?4 - and... to you that means you cann

Which means 61% to lose.If you are heads up do you push all your chips if you are only 40% to win??Flipping a coin gives you much better odds to win.

No I don't agree as I think sometimes the best way to play to win is to play to get into the money and that can mean adjusting your play. You define playing to win in a very narrow way.Many successful MTT adjust their early round play versus their later round play even when given the same hands. Some don't even play the early rounds because they don't want to catch a good hand and lose to a suck out when they cannot get people to fold.I will say this again and that is that when you are 34% to win you are 66% to lose and why any player who felt he was better then both the other players would

I will never understand why good players allow themselves to get into coin flips against marginal or bad players when they know over time they will beat them in hands where they can control the situation more.In my situation I have to call an ALL-In after two other players where I know I am only 33% to win the hand. I feel pretty confident that in time I will have better place and position to knock them both out regardless.Coin flips negate ALL poker skill and make marginal players equal to great players.Just because you are gambling does not mean you always have to gamble.If I put Todd Bruns

Hey Vic. Thx for trying to be nice as I know that is hard on this site ;}So you are going to focus on this "ahead" "concept" and try to state it as an immutable law. Basically if you are ahead always call ANY and ALL all-ins.So lets look at what "ahead" really means by examing hands played face up.Hand 1 - 5 playersyou - KQsuitedp2 - 77p3 - 10/9 suitedp4 - 87 suitedp5 - JJ suitedin this example you see everyones cards and know that you are ahead. You are 31% to win with the next closest being 29%. But still you will lose this more then twice as often as you win it.If I am on the bubble

I may be the favorite to win the hand against the two opponents but the odds say I lose that hand to one of the other two players. Being a favorite to win the hand because your percentage is better then X other players is almost a useless measure as a guage as to whether you should push all your chips in.You are making the mistake many others do and you can look at horse racing for an example.I give you the chance to put all your money on the one horse who is the marginal favorite or you can have ALL of the other horses inthe race. You should not put all your money down on the favorite jus

I here ya but I still don't get this "what were you hoping for" line of thought.You can catch what you were hoping for but then feel you are still down based on your read of the other player.Ever catch you straight draw on the river and yet know the same card that made you also made the flush draw? You got what you were hoping for and yet based on the other guy pushing ALL-In you know he did too.I never look at my hand in isolation and fall in love with it saying "I hit what I wanted". I try to gauge what others have and figure out what my odds are of winning the hand at the River. ...and in