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Posts posted by Merby

  1. Alright, I've caught up (this is a lie: I skimmed too much of the last 13 pages and not enough in-depth reading).I decided to make a full-fledged mathematical analysis of the hand. It's long and I have broken it down by spoilering the different options, as well as the mathematics justifying everything.Flop: Ac 9d 7cOur hand: Ad TdOn the flop, the pot is 7,000

    The blinds are 600+1200, together with our 2600 raise and button's 2600 call). All together, that is:600 + 1200 + 2600 + 2600 = 7000

    We have a stack of 27,400 and villain coversWe choose to check and villain bets 4,000. So the pot is now 11,000

    The original pot before the bet is 7,000. The villain bet 4,000, so there are now7000 + 4000 = 11000chips in the pot.

    We have three choices: Raise, call, or fold:1) We choose to raise

    We need to put 4,000 chips into the pot to call his bet. That leaves us with 23,400 chips to choose how large to raise.

    27400 - 4000 = 23400

    We need to at least match his raise size, so we can raise as little as 4,000 more to as much as 23,400 more. Let's look at the two extremes:1a) We minraise to 8000

    We now have 19,400 chips.

    23400 - 4000 = 19400


    The villain has a set of nines, so we have put 8,000 chips on the flop into the pot when we are 8.28% to win. With these odds, villain either shoves or chooses to slowplay, neither of which is optimal for us because we are 8.28% to win the hand.


    1a) We check-shove

    We now have 0 chips.

    23400 - 23400 = 0


    The villain has a set of nines, so we have put our tournament life on the line, in as a 8.28% dog to win.



    2) We choose to call

    The villain has a set of nines, so we put an extra 4,000 chips into the pot when we are 8.28% to win.

    3) We choose to fold

    We lose the hand, but the villain had a set of nines, so we don't put any more chips into the pot when we were behind. We go into the next hand of the tournament with 27,400 chips to try to win with.

    CONCLUSION: Optimal Flop Strategy:

    We should check-fold. Everyone else in this thread was wrong.

    • Like 3
  2. in the words of goldbergYOU'RE NEXT
    I may have worried back when I was averaging 10 posts per day or so. At my current FCP posting-rate, I have a good 20 or so years to prepare my 5k post soliloquy.Perhaps I can make a joint retirement/5k post speech.
  3. I did some calculations earlier and figured Tuesday 29th at about 6pm EST
    In the past this has only affected the last 2-3 milestones. However it looks as if the milestones are about to start (we're at 56698### so within an hour or so) which is about 4 hours earlier than I thought, so your 12-24 hours earlier may be close to right anyway - around Tuesday at 7-8am server time.
    I bet you're glad that you took the time to make these calculations.CONGRATS!!!
  4. Wagers (no matter how big or small) stop being friendly when the other side decides not to pay when they lose.
    ...and then the winning bettor needs to decide what is more important:1) the friendship, or2) the money.If the friendship is the most important, let it be a push and simply never bet with the guy again. This also quickly summarizes why it is dangerous to bet an amount of money that matters amongst friends (which may vary from each person's perspective).
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