Merby

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Posts posted by Merby


Alright, I've caught up (this is a lie: I skimmed too much of the last 13 pages and not enough indepth reading).I decided to make a fullfledged mathematical analysis of the hand. It's long and I have broken it down by spoilering the different options, as well as the mathematics justifying everything.Flop: Ac 9d 7cOur hand: Ad TdOn the flop, the pot is 7,000
The blinds are 600+1200, together with our 2600 raise and button's 2600 call). All together, that is:600 + 1200 + 2600 + 2600 = 7000
We have a stack of 27,400 and villain coversWe choose to check and villain bets 4,000. So the pot is now 11,000
The original pot before the bet is 7,000. The villain bet 4,000, so there are now7000 + 4000 = 11000chips in the pot.
We have three choices: Raise, call, or fold:1) We choose to raise
We need to put 4,000 chips into the pot to call his bet. That leaves us with 23,400 chips to choose how large to raise.
27400  4000 = 23400
We need to at least match his raise size, so we can raise as little as 4,000 more to as much as 23,400 more. Let's look at the two extremes:1a) We minraise to 8000
We now have 19,400 chips.
23400  4000 = 19400
Result:
The villain has a set of nines, so we have put 8,000 chips on the flop into the pot when we are 8.28% to win. With these odds, villain either shoves or chooses to slowplay, neither of which is optimal for us because we are 8.28% to win the hand.
1a) We checkshove
We now have 0 chips.
23400  23400 = 0
Result:
The villain has a set of nines, so we have put our tournament life on the line, in as a 8.28% dog to win.
2) We choose to call
The villain has a set of nines, so we put an extra 4,000 chips into the pot when we are 8.28% to win.
3) We choose to fold
We lose the hand, but the villain had a set of nines, so we don't put any more chips into the pot when we were behind. We go into the next hand of the tournament with 27,400 chips to try to win with.
CONCLUSION: Optimal Flop Strategy:
We should checkfold. Everyone else in this thread was wrong.
 3

My god. This is the thread that keeps on giving.I'm stuck at page 5 right now and will have to come back later when more popcorn has popped.

I guess it's that time of the year again.

Which is better: Five guys or InNOut Burger?


True story: Jerry was the herald of the exodus. The way he was at the table one minute and an empty seat the next minute is very much like how most of the posters have disappeared from FCP since that time.Did anyone find Jerry? 
WTF???You guys pornoverloaded. 
I'm going to wait for Phil to tell me when the milestone hand will happen. I trust his opinion.

I feel so lost :(What's going on, Jonas?

I may have worried back when I was averaging 10 posts per day or so. At my current FCP postingrate, I have a good 20 or so years to prepare my 5k post soliloquy.Perhaps I can make a joint retirement/5k post speech.in the words of goldbergYOU'RE NEXT 
Condolences on reaching 5k posts.

Congratulations Cody!Well deserved!

Obviously, it's a person found in a mosh pit.who is Moshman? 
Congrats Frank!!!

:PI keed, I keed....<3 Congrats James!My condolences James FCP 
I did some calculations earlier and figured Tuesday 29th at about 6pm EST
I bet you're glad that you took the time to make these calculations.CONGRATS!!!In the past this has only affected the last 23 milestones. However it looks as if the milestones are about to start (we're at 56698### so within an hour or so) which is about 4 hours earlier than I thought, so your 1224 hours earlier may be close to right anyway  around Tuesday at 78am server time. 
Strange... The mere act of quoting his post was enough to remove all value from it...

...and then the winning bettor needs to decide what is more important:1) the friendship, or2) the money.If the friendship is the most important, let it be a push and simply never bet with the guy again. This also quickly summarizes why it is dangerous to bet an amount of money that matters amongst friends (which may vary from each person's perspective).Wagers (no matter how big or small) stop being friendly when the other side decides not to pay when they lose. 
Did you factor in the increased number of hands getting played on an increased number of tables when it starts to get close? Otherwise, I'd probably knock 1224 hours off your estimate.I did some calculations earlier and figured Tuesday 29th at about 6pm EST 
I'm pretty sure it's all about her:...or at least, I wish it was.I'm pretty sure it is all about you. 
So you mean like 100% of the time that you're playing live, right?Most tilting thing ever when tables are super juicy and I have a 5 page essay due the next day. 
Yet other spammers hide their spam information in their signatures...For example:

Aren't the teams already partially formed?

Well... DN will have a fresh 150k...Daniel did a brief blog on today's match.They'll be playing again next Sunday with a fresh $150K each.http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/pokerjour...&ucat=&
New Challenge (old Challenge)
in General Poker Forum
Posted
Please stop bumping this thread.