Shizzmoney, on Thursday, October 19th, 2006, 6:18 AM, said:
The only hand you can beat for a called raise is either a bluff or AQ/AJ/A10.If he called to bluff on 4th street to stick it all-in on the river for his tournament life on a board that scary (wouldn't he have to figure if he was going to stick it in with nothing or with something as weak as AJ or A10, that he would be afraid the raiser might have the same hand he trying to represent?), then you just have to tip your cap to him and hope he does it again when you have a stronger hand.
He may have called the turn to bluff the river...or he may have called the turn on a draw, and decided to bluff the river when he missed...eg. 66, TT, T9, two spades, etc, because A: he knows it didn't help you either and B. he has zero reason to think you have an ace, let alone AK.There are a ton of plausible hands he has here that give him tremendous fold equity with a push here - especially if he thinks you're weak...and he has every reason to think you're weak....there are very few hands that give him value with a push here.Unless he's playing this hand as tricky as you are (and, really, for this guy to have a hand that beats you it means both people suffered from FPS here) the only hand I'm worried about is JsTs....one hand. I strongly believe he either leads the turn or check raises the turn with any other straight, set and two pairs, because he has to protect them.In fact, I'd say it's a little dumb not to raise with JsTs...with JsTs you think he would c/r an amount that forces you to call to give him a little more value....even there, if you had JsTs, would you really check the turn hoping you get bet...or wouldn't you be looking to ensure you get some kind of value?Not knowing anything about him, you have to assume he's a typical player.And, IMHO, a typical player leads or c/r's the turn with all hands that beat you at that point....and also folds 93,83,73 and 33.At that point, you're only worried about A3, which can c/c the turn...but I have a hard time seeing A3 push the river.
burgerman, on Thursday, October 19th, 2006, 7:02 AM, said:
I would fold putting the opponent on a set or two pair. I can't beat much with the aces and if he's bluffing so be it.Best --Burgerman
Let's assume he doesn't have AA, as he would reraise pf.Let's assume he doesn't have 33, as he would fold the turn.Now, let's assume you have 77, 88, or 99...77 you check the flop 'cause you missed - 88 or 99 you check the flop because you want the pf raiser to bet into your set.Fine - now the turn - If you have 77, 88, or 99 do you typically check your set again, or lead? And if, for whatever reason, you do check, do you then call his bet, with 789 and two spades on board, or do you raise?Don't you think all this rules out a set?And can't you make similar arguments for all the possible two-pair hands at the turn?