Posted 18 June 2013 - 05:38 PM
I think Variance means down the road in a different pot.
As for the hand, I'm 50-50 on it. I completely understand where you were going but if you were going to get in that deep with the hand, I would definitely just call on the river. Realistically speaking, he's showing an incredible amount of strength in this hand, especially leading out on the turn. Depending on how good he is at putting people on hands, the perfect card to hit was the ace - and that's when he started to bet the hand good. He bet his draw which is something that I like to do, hit it on the turn, and led out into you hoping that you hit the ace which you did. When you call the turn, he knows that you either have an Ace, possibly a 7, and maybe a jack. The 9 of spades is a perfect card for you. If you have 9-9 and just hit, Im paying you off with a flush even if it's a baby flush at that. I just don't like the jam on the river because there's an incredible range being in the BB already that he could be playing. I know that most of the time for a 3x open, especially 6 handed I am defending with a very wide range. So he very easily could have 7x, he could have J-7 (though I don't think he'd play it that strong), 9-7, A-J, A-9 - just way too many hands that beat you, and not a lot of hands you can comfortably put him on that you beat. I don't think he'd lead out on the river with any Jx especially because you've said you have a pretty good image at the table.
It's definitely an interesting hand, thanks for the share - it's a tough spot that's for sure, but I just don't like jamming the river because it's just a really blank river card.