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I Need A Lot Of Good Feedback On This One...

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#1 DonMcCoy


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Posted 31 May 2011 - 08:43 PM

Small Stakes Hold'em by: Miller, Sklansky, and Malmuth.Part One: Gambling Concepts, page 24"Say you have five opponents, and you estimate that, on average, your ace-king will win the hand about one out of four times."I understand estimating pot odds, implied odds, etc. However, where does one come up with these estimations? I would like to know how these players make THESE kinds of estimations. If you know, don't just tell me. Tell me how you were taught. Where did your direction for these estimations come from. Was there a particular chapter from a particular book that helped give you some input on how to make these kinds of estimations? Is there a particular name (ie pot odds) for these kinds of estimations?How do these experts make an estimate of "about one out of four times" against FIVE different players? There has to be some sort of fundamentals on estimating. Also, I'm only interested in live gaming. I'm not interested in how I can use some sort of computer aided gadget that will help me figure this out. I want to know how to come up with these estimates.Thanks!

#2 KingJames



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Posted 31 May 2011 - 09:04 PM

You can make these estimations by spending a lot of time when you are not actually at the table working on the math and range analysis.So you plug the AK into poker stove. Then you add 4 random hands. I see that AKo is about 32% and and AKs is about 35%.If you change the "random" hands to 4 ranges that are actually playable; like ATo+ 22+, suited broadways, a few other broadways, a few sooted aces, a few suited connectors, etc. I ran AKo vs that range and got 22%, AKs is 25.7%So, that kind makes sense.So basically, you need to understand what kind of hands players will play in certain spots and how your equity stacks up against those ranges.Then you need to figure out how to play best vs those ranges.ez game?Also, preflop equities are kinda meh. Position and stack depth are going to be just as important vs wide ranges.And, these 2p2 books that are old are kinda meh now-a-days... imo. I much prefer online training sites, like deucescracked, you can put me down for a referral :club:. You get more interactive math concepts, and more up to date actual playing concepts. And if you have questions, you can post them for the video maker, as opposed to a book that is one way traffic.Hope this helps somewhat...glgl
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#3 rrumsey


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Posted 02 June 2011 - 06:24 PM

sounds like a stupid way to think about it from that book, think ev against ranges and optimal way to play that spot.
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#4 AimHigher


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Posted 26 August 2011 - 12:21 PM

I think it's going to be somewhat pointless spending 2 minutes in the tank doing math just so you can determine how often you'll win a pot at showdown. As James said, Pokerstove is very insightful for getting a sense of your hand's equity vs. your opponent's ranges in common situations - but knowing "I will win the pot x% of the time when I raise XX on the button" is rather pointless. Especially in situations where you might win $0.50 4 out of 5 times, but the other 1 you lose $5 (So you have an expected value of -$3).

#5 answer20


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Posted 11 April 2012 - 07:46 AM

The only stat I look at for AK ... or really any other non-pair holding ... is that you have a 30% chance of hitting the flop and that is going to put you ahead of most any other hand when you have AK. Since some people do hit a set or 2 pair, then drop that down to around 25% and run with it. To back this up ... I read a story from Doyle that he bet some guys $2000 per hand that he would take 22 against their AK for 10 hands and he won $10K (not sure how he did that unless there was one push) ... and then they ran it again and he won $8000 (7 wins - 3 losses) more. That story pretty much upholds the 30% rule.

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