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Flop The Nut Boat


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$50 B&M tourney, 39 players....top four pay.First blind level...blinds are 25/25 - 3000 chips.I find AdTd in the button...raise to 100, SB folds, BB calls.Flop comes As Ac Ts.BB bets 100, I call.Turn 7dBB bets 100, I call.River comes Js.BB bets 100, I raise to 600, BB reraises to 1500.He's a decent player who, like me, plays a lot of these tourneys and wins more than he loses.Something is screaming in my head that I'm beat.Can I fold here?Is there any point to a reraise...do I get called by A7/AK/AQ or a flush enough to make up for the times I'm beat by AJ or the royal.We're talking 4 hands out of 1300 that beat me.How often do I have to be wrong about him beating me to make a fold a wrong play?How often do I have to be wrong to make a call a worse play than a raise?I ask because I have a tendency to assume the worst here, and not always get maximum value....I am trying to improve on that.Results in white. I call, he shows QsKs - in a cash game I'd be taking home a handsome jackpot...not in a tourney - I finished 2nd in the tourney, for $500

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You do not fold here. You go broke. Unlucky, but he could have 10-10 just as easily.And I raise the turn. Bump it to 250-300. He is representing a hand and/or is willing to bet his draw, and you should be milking that for all its worth. It he was on a flush draw and is betting it, and bricks on the river, he will check fold, so you might as well extract some value while you can.

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Thanks for the replies...I knew at the time, after I called, and when I posted this, that I should have raised the turn (although, in this one instance, I would have lost more chips if I had, I know in the long run it's the better play).Just wasn't sure if I'm being results-oriented about folding - though I am glad I called rather than raised the river.

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