another hand...

[Guest]

3/6 limit, 10 handed.i have Q J offsuit.pre-flop i call [early-mid position] with 7 others calling as well. 24 in the pot so far.flop comes: 4 8 9 rainbowfirst player checks, second player bets, and third player raises... my turn to act. i have a gutshot straight draw, and two mediocre overcards. should i call, or fold?ill let you know how the rest of the hand went down.

[JustinHEMI04 0]

Fold. Even though limit games people will call to the river with draws, I hate throwing money at it. I might have called one bet but 2 bets, no. Justin

[Guest]

ok i can't wait... here's what happened.yeah i folded. i was going to call just 1 bet, making that 10 to 1 at the point where it was my turn if the player before me had just called. but i folded when he made it 2 bets. so what happened? the turn brought the 10, and i folded what could have been the nuts. turns out the raiser only had top pair, which meant i had more than 4 outs.

[Wlleiotl 0]

little tip as well, fold preflop, QJo in early position is a loser for a 3/6 in my experience

[Smasharoo 0]

Folding is terrible unless you think it's going end up raised again. How agressive is the game? With 7 pf limpers it seems like it's not very agressive.An agressive player raises top pair or an overpair here, so I wouldn't discount all of your overcard outs. Let's say they're clean 1 time in 6, a very conservative estimate to give you about 5 outs. When you call the pot will be 12 SB, it's almost certain the flop bettor will call, making it 13SB. If two other players call, certainly not out of the question, you will be getting raw pot odds to call for 5 outs, and certainly getting immplied odds to call for your gutshot outs.If everyone folds, it increases the likelyhood that your overcard outs are clean. It's basically win/win. If many people call your overcard outs are less likely to be clean but the pot lays better odds for your gutshot outs. Gotta call this, folding is horrible. There's an argument to be made for three-betting it in a very passive game to clean up your overcard outs and increse your chance at a free card on the turn in addition to your fold equity on a river bluff. In most 3/6 games this loose, though, you're probably goinng to have to show it down. Calling is +EV.Smash.Oh and yes, fold this PF in early or middle position, even in great games where people are limping in 7 to a flop all the time. You don't want to play this for two bets pre-flop and even verry passive players raise on occasion.It's fine to play it in EP or MP in these types of games if it's a suited JQ.

[copernicus 0]

this is hand that needs a perfect flop to play on without risking a big loss on a draw.

[Smasharoo 0]

this is hand that needs a perfect flop to play on without risking a big loss on a draw.That's bad poker.This hand is fine to play in late position at a fairly passive table. This flop is easily good enough to continue with it in a pot this big.It's not a hand that needs to "connect" to a flop in the way 66 would be.

[the_stein 0]

yea if it hasn't been raised you can easily limp with this, you don't need a huge flop, top pair could be enough

[Guest]

smasharoo, i think your math is a little off on this one. when it was my turn to act on the flop, my odds were approx 36-6, OR 6-1 [if the initial better called another 3]. throw in 2 other people who call the 2-bet, and it will be 8-1. if i call, it will be 13 small bets, not 12, because i am calling 2 bets [6 dollars].so lets say i would be getting 8-1 odds on 5 outs. 5 outs that is, if i can win with a 10, a J, and a Q. ok, 5 outs [at best] - 2 outs [at worst], 8-1 [at best], 6-1 [at the time it was my turn to act]. now what do you think? of course, if i could do it over, i would definitely call.

[ddudley 0]

so lets say i would be getting 8-1 odds on 5 outs. 5 outs that is, if i can win with a 10, a J, and a Q.  math: roughly half the deck has been dealt, 23 cards, 44 %.  so 10 outs multiplied by lets say roughly 50 % is 5 pure outs.  ok, 5 outs [at best] - 2 outs [at worst], 8-1 [at best], 6-1 [at the time it was my turn to act].  now what do you think?  of course, if i could do it over, i would definitely call.

Why on god's green earth would you cut your 10 outs down to 5? Did you read that in a book somewhere or what? If you had a 4 flush would you fold? You had 1 more out than a flush draw. When you have a 4 flush do you cut your outs in half too?

[Guest]

Why on god's green earth would you cut your 10 outs down to 5?  Did you read that in a book somewhere or what?  If you had a 4 flush would you fold?  You had 1 more out than a flush draw.  When you have a 4 flush do you cut your outs in half too?

i cut down 10 outs to 5 outs because about 44 % of the deck had already been dealt, 23 [2 x 10 players, 3 on the flop] cards / 52 total. ok i did calculate wrong, it should actually be around 6-7 realistic outs. that is, 56 % of 12 [4 jacks, 4 queens, 4 10's in total in the deck]. now, i think 6-7 outs is more realistic than 10 because if you think you have 10 outs, you're assuming that of the 44 % of the deck already dealt, there wasn't a J, Q or 10 dealt to any other players. now a lot of players will say they have 10 outs in that spot, but that's not taking into account that probably, a couple of their outs are in the hands of their opponents, or mucked. now a flush draw. 13 in a suit. let's say in a ten handed game, same situation. 23 cards dealt by the time of the flop, 44 %. about 7 realistic outs left. good point dudley. it's about the same situation. THAT IS, if in the previous situation all my outs were good, the J, Q, and 10. what if by the time i got a J or Q someone else had 2 pair, a set, or an overpair? ie Q-9, Q-8, J-9, J-8, 444, 888, 999, JJJ, QQ, etc. or a higher kicker? A-J, K-J, K-Q. if that were the case, then i would be down to 2-3 outs [a 10]. and yes, i subtacted 1-2 because someone might have a 10 or it might have been mucked. now, a flush draw, mathematically i can assume i have 7 realistic outs left. about 25 percent. of course a lot of players up that percentage to about 33. in the previous hand, if i had 3 outs, that's 10 percent. but if i had 6-7, then yes, it would be the same as a flush draw... but a flush draw is a better situation.

[Guest]

let me elaborate a little on that last statement. a flush draw would be a better situation because i know if i make the hand, with those 7 realistic outs, that i will have the best hand [if i have a good high card]. pretty much the nuts, unless the board pairs. i could raise easily, and earn a huge pot. if i just had a pair of J or Q, i don't think raising would be a good idea. so the 10 would be my ideal card, giving me the nuts straight, which would give me only 2-3 ideal outs. with a flush draw, all 7 outs would be ideal.

[wrto4556 0]

Oh man, I don't think you are suppose to worry about how much of the deck is being delt, bro. Thats bad. In a 9 handed omaha game, about 90% of the deck is delt out. How would you calculate odds then? You would never be able to chase. You are suppose to count the number of "unknown" cards or "unseen" cards. You know of only 5. Your two hole cards and the 3 community cards (flop). That leaves you with 47 remaining "unknown" cards...no matter how many people you are playing with. Your outs are as follows,assuming they are all clean:3 queens, 3 jacks, and 4 tens. 10 outs. 47 (unknown cards) divided by 10 (outs) is 4.7, now minus that by one and you are a 3.7-to-1 dog to make a hand by the turn. And about a 2.4-to-1 dog to make it by the river. 47/20 (10*2)-1=~2.4 . On the turn you would still be a 3.7-to-1 dog and could chase because in these loose games, you would probably get some folks calling two cold on the flop.As for playing QJ, in passive games, maginal hands go up slightly in value. If you are sure can see a cheap flop, you can play "any pair from anywhere" and almost any 20. That's what makes "no fold'em hold'em" so fun. You get more action, the pots are bigger, and you don't have to do much thinking.Your call was justified. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

[Smasharoo 0]

smasharoo, i think your math is a little off on this one. when it was my turn to act on the flop, my odds were approx 36-6, OR 6-1 [if the initial better called another 3]. throw in 2 other people who call the 2-bet, and it will be 8-1.if i call, it will be 13 small bets, not 12, because i am calling 2 bets [6 dollars].7 callers, a bet, a raise, and you, no? If you mentioned dead money in there somewhere I must have missed it.so lets say i would be getting 8-1 odds on 5 outs. 5 outs that is, if i can win with a 10, a J, and a Q.If you can win with a T a J or a Q you have 10 outs. The 4 T's the three J's and three Q's. Your odds of hitting a T, J, or Q on the turn are 3.6 to 1. I was giving a worst case scenario when I estimated 5 because I was assuming that much of the time your J and Q odds wouldn't be clean (meaning you could hit them and still lose) to demonstrate how clear of a call this is.ok, 5 outs [at best] - 2 outs [at worst], 8-1 [at best], 6-1 [at the time it was my turn to act].now what do you think?of course, if i could do it over, i would definitely call.I think your out counting is a catastrophe. :)You count outs based on how many cards are left that you don't know about. You calculate the probablity of hitting one of them based on the remaining cards you don't know about.You know about two cards in your hand and three on the flop, so 5 cards out of 52 are known and 47 aren't. It doesn't matter if one of your outs was dealt out allready in a hand or as a burn card. It'll be in one of the 47 cards regardless. Odds to hit your outs take this into account.I think folding here is dreadfull. Raising is better than folding, and calling is the best option.