River Strategy

[Joenin 0]

I always felt I played well on the river but have recently started using poker tracker. I consider myself to be a rather agressive player so when I saw my agression numbers on the river compared to the other streets it seemed I may be missing some bets there. On the flop i'm at 9% raise, 29% bet, 13% call 27% check, turn is 6% raise, 34% bet, 15% call 27% check. For the river I'm 5% raise, 27% bet 23% call 37% check. What concerns me is the check/call aspect. In certain situations I'd rather check/call then bet out, specifically when key draws hit or I'm really unsure of where I am in a hand. I'm just looking for some input as to if it would be better to bet then fold to a raise in some situations which i'll list below(hand specific but hopefully the advice of this forum will allow us all to gain a better understanding as to apply it to all our play). Sometimes some situation occur where you don't have a very strong hand but are almost sure your ahead, or have a extremely strong hand and are almost sure your opponent is very far behind, in these situations I sometime like to check and call to pickoff a bluff where as my opponent would fold to my bet. Any thoughts on this? Also any thoughts on doing this as it requires you to expose your hand. This also applies mostly when you do not have position.Here are some hands of interest:Table 'Aphelion' Seat #10 is the buttonSeat 1: joenin ($168 in chips) Seat 2: carmdog ($202 in chips) Seat 3: Acuvue ($243 in chips) Seat 5: makeutap247 ($883 in chips) Seat 6: karvi ($489.50 in chips) Seat 7: Moose18FB ($144 in chips) Seat 8: bjohnst1 ($156 in chips) Seat 9: CXCX ($615 in chips) Seat 10: young_ernie ($66 in chips) joenin: posts small blind $2carmdog: posts big blind $5*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to joenin [Kc As]Acuvue: folds makeutap247: folds karvi: calls $5Moose18FB: folds bjohnst1: folds CXCX: folds young_ernie: calls $5joenin: raises $5 to $10carmdog: folds karvi: calls $5young_ernie: calls $5*** FLOP *** [9s Ac Ks]joenin: bets $5karvi: calls $5young_ernie: folds *** TURN *** [9s Ac Ks] [7h]joenin: bets $10karvi: calls $10*** RIVER *** [9s Ac Ks 7h] [3s]joenin: checks karvi: bets $10joenin: calls $10It apears karvi is drawing to somethen, the spade flush would be the most logical choice, which hits on the river. However, with my preflop raise is more then possible he has a hand like aj/at or even sometimes axs. His early position call makes me think axs is very likelly. Since the ace is not a spade that seems to increase the probability of him hitting that flush. My thoughts on my river play here is that the flush will raise me and a baby ace would give up at this point, at least a large portion of the time. If he can't put me on a bigger ace he'd have to put me on the flush draw. I also think its extremely unlikelly he'd fold any flush for a raise. So the plus/minus of the situation is this in my opinion. If i bet out he raises with the flush(to which i'd fold, feal free to post thoughts on that). He folds with a lot of second best hands, basically almost anything he'd call down with that he wouldn't of taken a shot at stealing by now(i think aq might of caught a bet or checkraise on the flop) aj is probably the only hand that would really pay of a bet here, possibly a3 as well. On the flipside if i check, the flush would surely bet out and i'd call, being no worse off than if i bet out. A lot of aces would bet here hoping i gave up on a hand like queens/jacks kq possibly. Theres also a small chance they'd bet with some completelyrandom hand hoping to just pickup the pot. Very small because i really can not see what hands would stay in that long, with the flush being the only real draw, though its certainly possible that qj would take a shot, unlikelly but it happens, this is stars 5/10 game btw.So any thoughts on best move here are welcome. Since i'm not really scared of losing to anything but the flush I think I have to lose one bet here if it hit, either through a check/call or a bet/fold.Seat 1: joenin ($71.50 in chips) Seat 2: ASDFGH ($145 in chips) Seat 3: DangerSpoon ($50.50 in chips) Seat 4: Fuchsie ($1070 in chips) Seat 5: brady #12 ($95 in chips) Seat 6: Pennelope ($229 in chips) Seat 7: captvalerie ($210 in chips) Seat 8: brooks01blzr ($206 in chips) Seat 9: shivamaster ($185 in chips) Seat 10: gadzukes ($113 in chips) gadzukes: posts small blind $2joenin: posts big blind $5*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to joenin [Th Qc]ASDFGH: folds DangerSpoon: folds Fuchsie: folds brady #12: folds Pennelope: folds captvalerie: calls $5brooks01blzr: folds shivamaster: calls $5gadzukes: folds joenin: checks *** FLOP *** [8h 3s 3h]joenin: checks captvalerie: checks shivamaster: checks *** TURN *** [8h 3s 3h] [Ts]joenin: bets $10captvalerie: folds shivamaster: calls $10*** RIVER *** [8h 3s 3h Ts] [9h]joenin: checks shivamaster: checks With no bet on that orphan type flop its hard to put him on the flush draw, but thats not even close to my only way of losing this hand. My queen isn't the exactly ideal kicker and 9t isn't that unlikelly of a hand for him to hold here either. Its unilikelly he drew at the straight in my opinion since it didnt' even hit till the turn and it was a gutshot. Its possible he could have a hand like qj though and hope to hit one of his 10 outs to improve and take a shot at it anyhow if i check. I think i probably should of bet here but I really dont' see what hands could pay me off, tj possibly, other then that i'm at a loss.Seat 1: WonderCall ($141.50 in chips) Seat 2: Pylon1 ($149 in chips) Seat 3: Fuchsie ($1995 in chips) Seat 4: Welshman ($110 in chips) Seat 5: Tazmaan ($193 in chips) Seat 6: fimmaster ($125 in chips) Seat 7: joenin ($202 in chips) Seat 8: woody55 ($52 in chips) Seat 9: hubble ($289 in chips) Seat 10: Yeuts ($362 in chips) fimmaster: posts small blind $2joenin: posts big blind $5*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to joenin [Jc Tc]woody55: calls $5hubble: folds Yeuts: folds WonderCall: calls $5Pylon1: folds Fuchsie: folds Welshman: folds Tazmaan: folds fimmaster: calls $3joenin: checks *** FLOP *** [Qh Ts Js]fimmaster: checks joenin: checks woody55: bets $5WonderCall: folds fimmaster: folds joenin: raises $5 to $10woody55: calls $5*** TURN *** [Qh Ts Js] [8h]joenin: bets $10woody55: calls $10*** RIVER *** [Qh Ts Js 8h] [5h]joenin: bets $10woody55: raises $10 to $20joenin: calls $10I realy dont' like this hand but am not sure exactly where to improve. My opponent flat calls utg and i get a free play from the blinds. AK is possible but given the flat call I take my chances until the betting tells me otherwise. When he bets out on the flop I figure its easy for him to hit queen with spade draw, kqs is certainly possible. I raise here with my bottom two, if he drawing flush or is on the queen i want him to pay, he likelly has a lot of outs to beat my two pair with almost any hand he could have. The turn really doesn't concern me as it seems unlikelly he has a 9, its far more dangerous in my opinion to give him a free card here. the 5h on the river seems like a great card to me even though it makes the backdoor flush draw. Unless he has a hand like kqh i'm probably fine. I bet out here then teh raise really throughs me. qj/qt seem slightly possible and it seems slightly possible that he ran into the flush. at this point i'm getting 9:1 and make a crying call, any thought are welcome on any of the play in this hand.*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to joenin [9h 9d]smithbo: folds pokerdude44: calls $5joenin: calls $5supergrouper: folds sonelk!!!: calls $5gators #1: calls $5greyhoundnc: folds fergy26: folds Midd Bear: checks *** FLOP *** [5h 4d 7s]Midd Bear: checks pokerdude44: checks joenin: bets $5sonelk!!!: calls $5gators #1: calls $5Midd Bear: calls $5pokerdude44: calls $5*** TURN *** [5h 4d 7s] [3h]Midd Bear: checks pokerdude44: checks joenin: bets $10sonelk!!!: folds gators #1: calls $10Midd Bear: folds pokerdude44: folds *** RIVER *** [5h 4d 7s 3h] [Jh]joenin: checks gators #1: checks In this hand i take the opratunity to limp 99, flop goes low and i bet it. turn hits a draw for the 6 but that doesnt' seem strong enough to check and give a shot to overs. Turn hits the backdoor flush draw plus is paint. My thoughts here are he might of picked up a draw on the turn after callign with overs. Its also possible he hit the jack with a hand like aj, and its possible hes calling down with something that hit the board or a big ace. It seems a big ace may very well give up here if i bet and the board isn't really idea for anyone to hit anything, though its possible. I think i'm more then likelly ahead here but think the odds of getting another bet out of my opponent are greater if i check/call then if i bet out. Any thoughts on these?I've also purposely left the showdowns out as people tend to be results driven. I'll post them later on if needed.

[jayistheman 0]

read this....http://www.chrisferguson.com/cgi-bin/artic...supdate.cgi?s=2you are making the right play. the article gives all of my reasoning, so i wont say too much.