Posted 07 December 2006 - 10:50 PM
Well, he bet the pot size, which means he did not flop the nuts most probably. If he had pocket sevens, fours, or an over pair, he will probably bet small, maybe half the pot size, to try to keep me in. If he had a monster like a set of Jacks, he probably will check, to try and trap me. So, I could only guess he has A-K, and try to buy the pot right here, and if I call he will still be in good shape. Or he might have A-J, and he is trying to protect his Jacks with the top kicker with that big bet.I definitely will not fold in here. My nines are still not too bad. If I hit a 9 on the turn, I could break him. If the turn comes 10 or 8, I will have a gutshot straight draw, and will move in on the turn, on a semi bluff. Therefore, I still am not too weak to fold.I also will not move in here, because if I did, and he had A-J, I'm dominated and he will call. He will fold the A-K or any pocket pair, but I don't want to risk the whole thing.Smooth calling here might look nice, but I won't call. If I called I will have no idea what he has. I also know he will fire again on the turn. If a big card comes, I can't call, and if his raise is big enough, even with a small card on the turn, the Jack will scare me, and I will still be worried he hit a set on the turn.Therefore, I will raise 3000. It's a big raise here. He will put me on a J with a lower kicker than his of course (if he had A-J), maybe he will even be worried I made a set, or I have an over pair. If he had a hand like A-K, A-Q, he will almost definitely fold to my re-raise. If he has A-J, he will most probably just call. I could then bluff if the turn comes a K or a Q, fold if an Ace or a small card comes - and of course hope for a 9. I think the re-raise is the best move here, I will get a lot of info regarding his hand, take control of the hand, scare him a bit, and set up a bluff if I needed it.Another thing,I would try to let him talk, pick up some tells, and get a better read on him, that will help me a lot. This is a situation I like to ask the question: " How much do you have left?", just to let him worry about my hand.By the way, I am putting him on pocket 10s.