DanielNegreanu, on Sunday, December 30th, 2007, 9:25 PM, said:
If you are calling, what hand can you put the UTG limper on that you can beat after he makes an over call on the flop and then bets the river? Do you really think he has A4? Possibly AA? If he has a Q, could his kicker possibly NOT play with the board reading J-10? I could tie Q-9, but would he limp with Q-9 in a full ring game UTG? How often do you think you'll make this call and win the pot? How often will you chop, and how often will you be beat?
This is my first post so I hope I'm doing this right! LOL. I've been reading the responses and took a day to think about what I would do and what I could potentially put the UTG limper on. Keeping in mind that you were in the SB without a raise in front of you, I don't disagree with the call to see the flop. On the flop, the Button's bet (to me) is a position bet. I would've raised; you would only expect someone who hit the flop to call, no? So potentially the UTG limper calls your raise and the Button folds. You can now derive that, seeing as the UTG is the short-stack in this hand, he hit the flop. He's not going to limp in preflop with a poor hand. He's going to limp with something that he can either push/trap with should he hit the flop. Knowing that, I would not have put him on AA, KK, or AK. Although I don't know how he plays, I would think he would've raised preflop. I could see him limping in, however, with KQ, JQ, or low pockets like 4s. His calling the flop bet leads me to believe that he's not holding a draw hand (8-9, A-K). On the turn, I'm checking. I can't beat 44, Q-10, Q-J, 10-10... Should he check the turn, the river doesn't do anything but dig me in deeper. I'm done. Is it wrong, Daniel, to raise the original flop bet from the Button? Is it also reasonable to consider that the hand from the UTG is going to be a pretty decent hand considering his chip stack? He wants to see a flop cheaply but it's also going to be good enough to push with?