Jump to content

Thread For Dubey And Serge's Football Prop Bet


Recommended Posts

I pick 5 games per week against the spread

- pinnacle lines, locked in whenever I make my picks (honour system on lines)

-picks posted any time before first game on Sunday

-if I miss a week, I can make up the following week - once only. any subsequent misses will result in me getting 0-5 for that week

-final record over .500 means I win. .500 is a push, anything less you win

$50 wager

 

Current Bet Status: Through Week 9 - overall record 22-20-3

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 103
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Week 1: Bears +6.5 Loss Bills +2.5 WIN Cardinals -2.5 WIN Falcons +3 WIN 49ers +2.5 WIN   Week 1: 4-1-0   Also had a $50 parlay on the niners and falcons tonight. WIN

Week 2: Dallas +5 over Philly Seattle +3.5 over GB Detroit +3 over Minny Cleveland +1 over Tennessee Denver +3 over KC   so much for never betting on Dallas games

Dubey going all Underdogs this week...antisucker.

Week 1:

Bears +6.5 Loss

Bills +2.5 WIN

Cardinals -2.5 WIN

Falcons +3 WIN

49ers +2.5 WIN

 

Week 1: 4-1-0

 

Also had a $50 parlay on the niners and falcons tonight. WIN

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Week 2:

Dallas +5 over Philly

Seattle +3.5 over GB

Detroit +3 over Minny

Cleveland +1 over Tennessee

Denver +3 over KC

 

so much for never betting on Dallas games

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

haha. even at 5-1, my odds of finishing above .500 for the season is probably only about 55%. Plus there is a non-zero chance that I forget to post picks on multiple occasions

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Week 2:

Dallas +5 over Philly Win

Seattle +3.5 over GB loss

Detroit +3 over Minny Loss

Cleveland +1 over Tennessee win

Denver +3 over KC win

 

3-2 for the week.

 

7-3-0 through 2 weeks

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Week 3

New England -13.5 over Jacksonville

Cinci +3 over Baltimore

Dallas +1 over Atlanta

NYJ -2.5 over Philly

Buffalo +2.5 over Miami

 

Edited to delete Bears and add NYJ Sept 24th 10:36 AM EST

 

 

tough week... is Tony Romo worth an 8.5 point swing in the Line against the Falcons? I guess we will see.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The first rule of gambling should be to never bet on a team whose jersey/hat/socks you wear.

The second rule of gambling should be to never bet on a team whose logo makes up any part of your forum image.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

haha. I actually follow that rule most of the time. I never bet on the Leafs, and I make a point of never betting on the Cowboys.... unless I see something weird.

 

Like, in week 2, a Dez Bryant injury swinging the line by like 5 points. going into week 2, by most metrics, Cowboys would be a 3 point favourite against the Eagles on a neutral field. So, in Philly, it should be a pick'em. So you're telling me that Dez Bryant is worth a 5.5 point swing? No way. no WR in the league is that important.

 

 

Now, with Romo, Cowboys should be about a 7 point favourite against the falcons at home. The line has moved 8 points with the Romo news. This is much more believable and realistic than last week's line, but I think it's still too much. I think the Defense is good enough and the offensive line is good enough that the Cowboys are >50% to win this game. I'm as pessimistic as anyone about the Romo-less Cowboys, but this feels good to me :)

Link to post
Share on other sites

I actually really like that a lot. If you asked a random person what they thought the line would be in Atlanta vs Dallas, in Dallas without Romo or Dez, Atlanta coming off two wins, you think the line might be Atlanta -4, yet it's basically a pick em. Usually when a line looks too good, it is bc it is, and I think it's begging the public to take Falcons at pick em, so I'm with you guys on Dallas. I hate taking them bc they're such a public team, but I really like this spot.

 

Ps. Watch Falcons wins by 21. I suck.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

Announcements


×
×
  • Create New...