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We Have To Get Away From The Set..


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$100 max on BodogOur stack is about $66. UTG is about $76 and SB has $100+, as does MP1.UTG has been around for about 4 rotations, but has been very quiet, hasn't seen a hand past the flop. No read on SB but action on this hand dictates they are erratic at least, probably a donk. Nothing on MP1.Hero is on MP2 with :club::DAction:UTG raises to $4. MP1 calls $4. Hero calls $4. SB calls $4. BB folds. Flop :D :D :DAction: SB bets $1. UTG calls $1. MP1 folds. Hero raises to $8. SB calls. UTG shovels for $71 total. Hero?

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I honestly don't know what you beat. This has to be AA very often. He can't have 7cxc, he can't have Acxc, I don't think 22 is likely to raise from UTG, AK shoving there is unlikely. A7/A2 don't normally raise UTG preflop.In a game I probably call (I am a sucker for 'needing to see'), but I think folding is probably correct.

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I honestly don't know what you beat. This has to be AA very often. He can't have 7cxc, he can't have Acxc, I don't think 22 is likely to raise from UTG, AK shoving there is unlikely. A7/A2 don't normally raise UTG preflop.In a game I probably call (I am a sucker for 'needing to see'), but I think folding is probably correct.
I'm also thinking that AK/AQ doesn't flat call a minbet into this size of a pot with two behind.
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I'm also thinking that AK/AQ doesn't flat call a minbet into this size of a pot with two behind.
I missed that. I just saw your raise to $8 and then the overshove. I need to pay more attention.That's another reason for folding then. I can't think of any hand other than AA that he could have.
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$100 max on BodogOur stack is about $66. UTG is about $76 and SB has $100+, as does MP1.UTG has been around for about 4 rotations, but has been very quiet, hasn't seen a hand past the flop. No read on SB but action on this hand dictates they are erratic at least, probably a donk. Nothing on MP1.Hero is on MP2 with :club::DAction:UTG raises to $4. MP1 calls $4. Hero calls $4. SB calls $4. BB folds. Flop :D :D :DAction: SB bets $1. UTG calls $1. MP1 folds. Hero raises to $8. SB calls. UTG shovels for $71 total. Hero?
Am I misreading your post? I see second set on a relatively uncoordinated flop. Answer the bell. Push back. If villain has AAA, oh well.You're not even losing a full buy in.
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Answer the bell. Push back. If villain has AAA, oh well.You're not even losing a full buy in.
This seems a very robot way to play NL. Capable of adjusting to situations or just making your +EV from multitabling?
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Name a hand you beat.
OK. Based on limited experience, I can make a few guesses at what's going on here. My first thought was that this was a big ace thinking that they would make the flush draw(s) pay to see more cards. AKAQIt could be a flush draw looking to outdraw you. You said UTG has been quiet. Maybe he's card dead and is thinking, "AHA, finally a connection with a flop. I'll close it down or outdraw." Possible holdings of random player making that bet:KcQc any other two clubsThis could be UTG sitting quietly and now making a move on a pot. You have the second nuts, but there's callers and raisers everywhere on this table. Someone(s) IS getting cute. You could be looking at:72A2A7squadooshMy next thought is that someone is strong in this hand, too. You could be looking at:22AABasically, we have a $30+/- pot with $50 +/- behind and second set. Push. There's one hand that's ahead of us. IF it's that hand, so be it. If we play to make money, sometimes we lose. But there's not always a monster in the closet. Sometimes there is. But not always. It's not like any of you are tearing up the table. "$100 max on Bodog; Our stack is about $66. UTG is about $76 and SB has $100+, as does MP1." A bad play (or a good play in a bad spot) is possible from the villain.
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I would agree with you on the point that our calling range can be a bit wider with the pot size and our stack size...and not so if we were all above $100 and the pot was the same.

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I would agree with you on the point that our calling range can be a bit wider with the pot size and our stack size...and not so if we were all above $100 and the pot was the same.
Right. Right.A couple weeks ago, I have $600 behind in a $2/5 - $300 max game. Guy across the table has about the same. It's been 4 hours hard work just to double up. I wake up with AsKs UTG -- I raise to $20. Villain in MP calls. All others fold. Flop: AdKhJs. I lead $50. Villain says "all in" with about one beat hesitation. I think about ten seconds. I take into account that this guy has been like me; building and not careless. I fold face up. He smacks a set of jacks on the table. Different situation.edit: My point is that it's possible to get away from monsters. A flopped AAKKJ in a live game is a total freakin monster. This is a live game, BTW
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OK. Based on limited experience, I can make a few guesses at what's going on here. My first thought was that this was a big ace thinking that they would make the flush draw(s) pay to see more cards. AK AQThese hands would almost certainly raise a $1 flop bet. Given that they have made an unlikely smooth call, they are now making an even more unlikely shove.It could be a flush draw looking to outdraw you. You said UTG has been quiet. Maybe he's card dead and is thinking, "AHA, finally a connection with a flop. I'll close it down or outdraw." Possible holdings of random player making that bet:KcQc any other two clubsReally? You think a random flush draw is shoving here? I think this is as rare as the AK/AQ.This could be UTG sitting quietly and now making a move on a pot. You have the second nuts, but there's callers and raisers everywhere on this table. Someone(s) IS getting cute. You could be looking at:72 He raised UTG preflop having been very quiet. He NEVER has 72. Ever.A2 Pretty loose raise preflop, and I think he would be raising the flop after a $1 bet normally.A7 Again, very likely to raise the flop initially. There is also only one 7 left in the deck, so that is pretty unlikely.squadooshNo. Really. Just no.My next thought is that someone is strong in this hand, too. You could be looking at:22 Not many players will raise UTG with 22. Assuming he has got 22, I would quite often expect a raise on the flop.AA Fits perfectly. Raises UTG, smooth calls with top set when he has the deck crippled on the flop, and then shoves when he knows someone is interested.Basically, we have a $30+/- pot with $50 +/- behind and second set. Push. There's one hand that's ahead of us. IF it's that hand, so be it. If we play to make money, sometimes we lose. But there's not always a monster in the closet. Sometimes there is. But not always. It's not like any of you are tearing up the table. "$100 max on Bodog; Our stack is about $66. UTG is about $76 and SB has $100+, as does MP1." A bad play (or a good play in a bad spot) is possible from the villain.
I honestly think this is AA at least 80% of the time.
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I was doing a little math in my head during lunch. I think (think) that if we duplicate this exact situation 1000 times and narrow the range of UTG down to AA and any flush draw, we are only about 30% to win total in the LR.

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I was doing a little math in my head during lunch. I think (think) that if we duplicate this exact situation 1000 times and narrow the range of UTG down to AA and any flush draw, we are only about 30% to win total in the LR.
It only needs to be 40% to make this call.At 100max there are enough donks that this is easily 40%.P.S. (running it once and running it 1000 times are the same regarding percentages.)
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I don't think we can fold here. This is like folding KK preflop. You're going to lose sometimes, but I think long run this is a winning call.
This is the exact opposite of folding KK preflop. We have reads, preflop AND postflop action to consider, as well as a flop texture to think about as well. This is not a run-of-the-mill situation at all, and I don't believe you should group it in with every other situation where you flop 2nd set.
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WTF is the SB doing? He may be on the flush draw and now thinks he has odds to call...
You know, I hadn't though about SB more than just what he contributed to making the pot the size it was. I can't put him on anything else than a nice flush draw. I guess that takes the chance that UTG is on a good draw even lower.
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Our stack is about $66. UTG is about $76 and SB has $100+, as does MP1.UTG has been around for about 4 rotations, but has been very quiet, hasn't seen a hand past the flop. No read on SB but action on this hand dictates they are erratic at least, probably a donk. Nothing on MP1.
Against an unknown this is an instacall. You already have close to 20% of ur stack invested in this hand and you smacked middle set. I don't think we can fold here. No way folding sets at these limits is profitable over time. This is AK enough to make this call even with the strange action. Although we have a tight read on the player I still have to call.
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No way folding sets at these limits is profitable over time. This is AK enough to make this call even with the strange action. Although we have a tight read on the player I still have to call.
I'm literally annoyed at all these statements. I already said that I didn't mean we should be folding sets to heat all the time. AK makes absolutely no sense here at all Krup, and you know that. AK, really? I think a flush draw and 2 pair very seldom here, but still more often than AQ/AK. And, we have a tight read. None of this matters?
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