NOFX_PUNK 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 I have been a winning player over the last three years or so and built up what I consider to be a large bankroll. I was not especially clever with bankroll management. However, in the past 6-8 months playing under-rolled for a bit of fun at higher limits and sitting on a couple of previous decent tournament scores helped me build up total winnings of around $40,000.I have used the money to live off and pay back some student debts but over the past two weeks I bit the bullet and have now spent what amounts to almost $39,000 of my winnings on paying off the rest of my student loans and fees, replacing my laptop, buying an MP4 player, a new TV and a gift for me (a $4600 watch! )Don't feel sorry for me not having much of a bankroll left as this was the intention all along and whilst I will miss the money in the short term, I intend to rebuild a bankroll in the coming months with which to compete at higher levels again. Also I will be finishing university in June next year and plan to spend some time in Vegas over the summer to blow off some steam before I go out into the real world to put my degree to good use.I have been doing some maths as to how I will be doing this: Please bare in mind I am still a full time student and have a lot of university work to be doing as well as playing poker and considering I have already paid for my degree in full I intend to do well! I have left myself slightly short rolled for $2/4 Limit or $50NL and as such this is where I intend to start. I have spent the past few weeks re-reading everything poker-related I own and have signed up for rakeback at FTP, Interpoker and a couple of others all of which are around 35%. I intend to rebuild properly.My sums go like this.FL:4 tables, 20 hours a weekstarting with $2/4 at 5bbs/hr = $20 + $5Rakeback = $25/hr x 4 tables = $100 hour. At this rate I will make approximately $2000 in a week. Correct?At this point I will have a $3000 bankroll leaving me safe to play at least $3/6 with some shots at $5/10.Assuming I stick to $3/6 and again beat the game for 5bbs/hour at 4 tables this gives $35/table x 4 = $140 + Rakeback @ c$10? ($150/hr)In the next week I should make $3000. Correct?This will take my roll to c$8000with an $8000 roll I can very safely play $5/10 and this is where I intend to stay until I reach the mark I was previously at. I figure at 5/10, winning a safe 4bbs/hour at 4 tables I should make $160/hr + rakeback of $15. Assuming some inconsistencies and bad luck at this level, with these results I can expect to make $1000 for roughly every 8-10 hours of play. At this rate, going from $8000 back to $40,000 should take around 300 hours.I figure this CAN be done in 25 weeks of 20 hours of play with a bit of luck and a following wind. The reason I am posting this is that I want to find out who plays like this and how realistic my expectations are, assuming I don't play anything at 10/20.Also, playing limit, I am a strong L08 player, is it foesible to make the same or more playing L08 in the same way?I have also done the sums for NLHE starting at $50 max.I figure in the 6 max games I can expect to make on average 10bbs/hour at 4 tables (this is based on a three hour session a few days ago where I made 20bbs/hour at 5 tables! .)at $50 max NL, making 40bbs/hour + 35% rakeback should add up to around $25/hr. In about 40 hours I should therefore be able to squeeze out close to $100. Leaving me with about 20 buy ins for $100NL. The game I think I will actually play at this bracket is $100PL but the results shouldn't differ because of this. I am not too worried about being UNDERrolled at this level as it is my best game and I intend to be OVERrolled before moving up further.At $100PLHE I see a profit of $1000 a week being achievable by -winning 10bbs/hour at 4 tables, with rakeback. Profit = circa $50/hr.$50x20 hours = $1000 in a week.To play $200 PL/NL I will need a roll of around $5000 but I intend to be a little higher as my experience of $1/2 NL/PL is that the swings can be rough, especially in PLO. This should take about 3-4 weeks to achieve. At the $200 max level I see a $2000/week profit being possible given the same winrate of 10bbs/hour and the rakeback totalling $100 per hour of play, obviously assuming once more I play 20 hours a week.Given this is accurate I can expect to go from $5000 to $40,000 in a little less than 20 weeks. Right, that's all my maths and such out of the way. If you feel I have been overly generous or overly stingy in my expectations do tell me as I want to get as accurate of an idea as possible before I embark on this. I will not be cashing out during this process until I reach the plateau level of each plan, i.e $5/10FL and $200max NL/PL, at which point I will keep a sufficient roll online and move my winnings to my savings account for interest rather then leave it festering online! Please don't post telling me to do what I did before again, it wasn't a particularly smart way of building a roll although it did work out and you will just annoy me!I am also aware of No_neck's plan to live on $100NL for a couple of months in the strategy forum and will be closely following his progress to help with with own.Please take this thread as an opportunity to post your own plans/goals/stories/experiences of grinding as I have never really done it before.Hopefully this thread will be long and distinguished and eventually it will have me back at a $40,000 roll to take to Vegas for next summer and perhaps linger for a couple of WSOP events!!!CheersRob Link to post Share on other sites
lax411 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 4 tables, 20 hours a weekstarting with $2/4 at 5bbs/hr = $20 + $5Rakeback = $25/hr x 4 tables = $100 hour.5bb hr? Ok.. Link to post Share on other sites
NOFX_PUNK 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Author Share Posted October 10, 2006 5bb hr? Ok..I assume you are suggesting 5bb/hour is not sustainable? or are you questionning my flawless maths? Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 5bb hr? Ok..i have sustained larger over 2 yrs. Obv in NLHE.And OP 4.6K watches are -EV Link to post Share on other sites
NOFX_PUNK 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Author Share Posted October 10, 2006 i have sustained larger over 2 yrs. Obv in NLHE.And OP 4.6K watches are -EVSo the concensus would suggest going for NLHE? my stats tell me I am around 11.8/hour in NLHE over 130,000 hands at all levels. I am guessing the average is, however, pulled up by $25NL from back in the day so I am being 'conservative' LOL!-EV? Are you sure? I have alwats wanted a flashy watch and I think it's purdy!Flashy Watch Link to post Share on other sites
rwood 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 SORRY BUT THAT IS THE UGLIEST 4.6K WATCH I'VE EVER SEEN. RETURN IT. Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 So the concensus would suggest going for NLHE? my stats tell me I am around 11.8/hour in NLHE over 130,000 hands at all levels. I am guessing the average is, however, pulled up by $25NL from back in the day so I am being 'conservative' LOL!-EV? Are you sure? I have alwats wanted a flashy watch and I think it's purdy!Flashy Watch yes the BB/hr range definitely is highest at $25 NLHE. It definitely goes down but 11.8 is attainable at most small stakes.meh I'm not too fond of the watch Link to post Share on other sites
AcesUp46 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 I don't doubt that you're a good player but 5 big bets per hour at limit holdem is not sustainable at all. Realistically, you're looking to make somewhere between 1.5-2 BB/hr at limit holdem. Link to post Share on other sites
JMoney2681 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 I don't doubt that you're a good player but 5 big bets per hour at limit holdem is not sustainable at all. Realistically, you're looking to make somewhere between 1.5-2 BB/hr at limit holdem.QFT, you can't sustain 5BB, no way no how. You can run hot and keep it like that with your rakeback for a short while, but not sustain those #'s. Link to post Share on other sites
hblask 1 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 So the concensus would suggest going for NLHE? my stats tell me I am around 11.8/hour in NLHE over 130,000 hands at all levels. I am guessing the average is, however, pulled up by $25NL from back in the day so I am being 'conservative' LOL!-EV? Are you sure? I have alwats wanted a flashy watch and I think it's purdy!Flashy Watch I have a thing for watches, and I like it. You can never spend too much on a nice watch.5BB/100 is sustainable. 7 is excellent. 10 is TP/MM. This is NL.My understanding is that 2BB/100 is about the most anyone can hope for in Limit.I think I make 0.00001BB/hr playing NL. Link to post Share on other sites
tobytobey 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 I like the watch with the metal band, as opposed to the leather band. Gl and if you TP/MM, remember that I said the watch was neato. Link to post Share on other sites
NOFX_PUNK 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Author Share Posted October 10, 2006 I like the watch with the metal band, as opposed to the leather band. Gl and if you TP/MM, remember that I said the watch was neato.LOL ty ty.I like the watch with a bracelet as well but I figure it's more classy with the gator! lolAlso I don't plan on TP/MMsing, I will MMs but as a film director! Link to post Share on other sites
Wandigo 1 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Also I don't plan on TP/MMsing, I will MMs but as a film director!Hopefully it's the same kind of films that I'm thinking of. Link to post Share on other sites
Teffy 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 That watch is very nice. I woulda gona with an iced-out Jacob though. lol. Link to post Share on other sites
swahnroger 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 -EV? Are you sure? I have alwats wanted a flashy watch and I think it's purdy!Why would you need a watch when you have a clock in the system tray? Link to post Share on other sites
kmak 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 I like the watch with the metal band, as opposed to the alligator band. Gl and if you TP/MM, remember that I said the watch was neato.FYPLove the watch, especially the band. Link to post Share on other sites
nutzbuster 7 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Congrats on paying off the loans. They would have haunted you for many years and that was without a doubt he smartest move you could have possibly made with the money.Next was the watch. IWC's are excellent. I splurged after a nice tourney win over a year ago (stainless Rolex explorer II, black face) and never looked back. A good watch holds its value.Bravo on your success, your decision making, and Best of luck builidng your roll back up. Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 nice watchWhat school you going too?My son gradutated from Cal Arts this year, he also wants to direct film.With Paramount getting bought there is a flood in the industry so jobs are scarce, but that will change.Good luck Link to post Share on other sites
NOFX_PUNK 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Author Share Posted October 10, 2006 nice watchWhat school you going too?My son gradutated from Cal Arts this year, he also wants to direct film.With Paramount getting bought there is a flood in the industry so jobs are scarce, but that will change.Good luckI live in the UK.... while at uni I am in Preston, (about midway between Blackpool and Manchester to anyone who has a basic knowledge of UK geography.) and when on holidays and as of June next year I live just North of London. Media jobs in the UK are pretty hard to come by but I have an unofficial offer to go into broadcast journalism in 11 months . It would be graveyard TV news but it's a foot in the door! I also host a radio show with a couple of buddies, I will get y'all an address to stream it when we get our online feed back up. We might even be able to get some of your requests on the show!Anyhow, anyone have any further thoughts regarding my proposal? I put in a 2 hour session earlier at 6max $50NL playing between 2-4 tables and won about $300 so I'm on my way.Also, let's not forget that a flashy watch shows u have money at a poker table, it doesn't mean u are good but people may think u won that money as opposed to being some trust fund kid taking a shot! Link to post Share on other sites
CzechRazor 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 So the concensus would suggest going for NLHE? my stats tell me I am around 11.8/hour in NLHE over 130,000 hands at all levels. I am guessing the average is, however, pulled up by $25NL from back in the day so I am being 'conservative' LOL!-EV? Are you sure? I have alwats wanted a flashy watch and I think it's purdy!Flashy Watch That's an ok entry level Swiss watch but if you are considering it a long-term investment, you'd have done better to pay more for a better product.I am very relieved to see it's not a gold watch, though. Yay. Link to post Share on other sites
NOFX_PUNK 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Author Share Posted October 10, 2006 That's an ok entry level Swiss watch but if you are considering it a long-term investment, you'd have done better to pay more for a better product.I am very relieved to see it's not a gold watch, though. Yay.fk you and your swatch too! Link to post Share on other sites
CzechRazor 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 fk you and your swatch too!Oh noes!!1 You insulted my time telling machine.Actually, I don't own much better than a Swatch. I own a $350 Swiss Army watch.Because all it does is tell me the time and most people can't spot a nice watch anyways. Including you, I guess Link to post Share on other sites
NOFX_PUNK 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Author Share Posted October 10, 2006 Oh noes!!1 You insulted my time telling machine.Actually, I don't own much better than a Swatch. I own a $350 Swiss Army watch.Because all it does is tell me the time and most people can't spot a nice watch anyways. Including you, I guess touche touche, i like it, that's what matters. People who know nice watches notice it and they tell me it's a nice watch, it makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside, that is all! Link to post Share on other sites
CzechRazor 0 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 touche touche, i like it, that's what matters. People who know nice watches notice it and they tell me it's a nice watch, it makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside, that is all!I was just giving you crap. It's what I do. There's no bad Swiss automatic watch, that's for sure. I like the style of it but I can't bring myself to invest in an expensive watch. Link to post Share on other sites
DaBruins 0 Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 I have a thing for watches, and I like it. You can never spend too much on a nice watch.5BB/100 is sustainable. 7 is excellent. 10 is TP/MM. This is NL.My understanding is that 2BB/100 is about the most anyone can hope for in Limit.I think I make 0.00001BB/hr playing NL.no its not, he's talking about 2/4 limit. Did you not read the post? Link to post Share on other sites
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