wildspoke 2 Posted July 4, 2009 Share Posted July 4, 2009 This year's tour should be awesome. Tons of drama and the race hasn't even started. It reminds me a lot of the 86 tour. Will Armstrong win number 8? Make your picks:Pick your top 3 in General Classification?Who will win the green jersey?Who will win the polka dot jersey?Who will win the white jersey?Who will win the prologue?Top 31. Contador 2. Armstrong3. MenchovGreen Jersey1. BoonenClimber's Jersey1. MoncoutieWhite Jersey1. Martin Winner of Stage 11. Contador Link to post Share on other sites
dluzion 0 Posted July 5, 2009 Share Posted July 5, 2009 wow no evans in the top 3? Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 5, 2009 Author Share Posted July 5, 2009 wow no evans in the top 3?The reason why I did not put Evans in the top 3 is because he team is so bad. He could lose up to 2 minutes in the TTT against Astana, Columbia and Saxo Bank. Also, he has very little support in the mountains. After stage one you get a better indication of where the riders are at. I see Evans in 4th or 5th. Menchov shit the bed and lost over a minute and half. He'll be lucky if he cracks the top 5. Contador rode the perfect race. Kloden also looked excellent. Spartacus looked awesome. On fire. Could keep the Jersey until the first big mountains which is bad for Andy Schleck. I think Levi and Lance made a tactical error going earlier in the day and it cost each of them a 'few' seconds. A podium sweep is a real possibility and Lance isn't one of the three. **** Tomorrow's stage********One for the sprinters. It looks like a Cavendish day for sure. His team is riding exceptionally well. I don't think anyone will get in his way.A group of about 4 riders will get off the front. They will get caught with about 15 KM to go. 1. Cavendish2. Boonen3 HushovdWould like to see Tyler on Garmin do well but I think his nerves will get the best of him. Link to post Share on other sites
rinswun 6 Posted July 5, 2009 Share Posted July 5, 2009 Top 3:1. Contador2. Leipheimer3. A ShleckGreen Jersey:CavendishPolkadot Jersey:GesinkYoung Rider:A Schleck Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted July 5, 2009 Share Posted July 5, 2009 Fantastic time trial by Cancellara yesterdayNice finish by Cavendish todayNot gonna pretend to know enough to predict stage outcomes, but I think Astana, led by Contador, is going to give everyone a very difficult time. They have something to prove after not participating in last year's Tour. Sastre will, of course, be a factor in the mountains, as will Astarloza, but Contador should be able to keep them in sight. The Schleck brothers will be a ton of fun to watch, as will Lance's progress.Overall, it's such a massively talented field, it's hard to predict outcomes. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 6, 2009 Author Share Posted July 6, 2009 With Alessandro Petacchi not in the race and Tom Boonen not participating in today's sprint Cavendish was pretty much a lock.Tyler Farrar rode really well. Lead out man Julian Dean didn't an awesome job of delivering him on Cavendish's wheel but Cavendish's lead out train was so strong (Kudos to Renshaw and Hincapie) nobody had a shot. Stage 3 will be another one for the sprinters. Cavendish is riding so strong that Columbia will let another group of 4 to 6 riders get off the front (at least 2 will be french riders) - then the field will reel them in with 10k to go and we'll see the same thing all over again. The only way a break will succeed is if Columbia wants to save themselves for the TTT (a real possibility as they have sort of thing going on with Garmin and Astana.) Quick Step and Milram might want to lead the chase. 1. Cavendish2. Farrar3. Thor Hushovd Nothing big will happen with the major general classification riders. The big day will be Tuesday. If you get the chance check out the team time trial. It's one of the most beautiful things to watch in cycling. Link to post Share on other sites
rinswun 6 Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 cavs is gonna win 6 stages this year. he is far too strong for everyone else when it comes to the sprint. as much as i love that he is destroying people, it makes for a pretty boring 1st week. cant wait until this thing gets into the mountains! Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 7, 2009 Author Share Posted July 7, 2009 Wow, stage 3 was just awesome.You think it's going to be about the sprinters and the wind mucks up things.It could not have gone any better for Columbia and Astana. If Garmin and Silence did not chance the gap could have easily reached two minutes.Columbia-HTC won the stage and had 8 guys in the break of 27. You couldn't play it any better. Cav was awesome AGAIN!Also Astana benefited greatly with Lance in the break. He rode smarter than any of the other GC riders. It's good for Contador too. He's still the man to beat but they have another card to play in Lance.The team time trial is going to be awesome tomorrow. I think the order of the top 5 will be:1. Astana2. Columbia3 Saxo bank4 Garmin5. LiquidgasThis day will be big for Evans and Menchov as well. They have to limit their loses if they want to be sitting on the top step. Tomorrow is going to be wicked fun. Link to post Share on other sites
rinswun 6 Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 Wow, stage 3 was just awesome.You think it's going to be about the sprinters and the wind mucks up things.It could not have gone any better for Columbia and Astana. If Garmin and Silence did not chance the gap could have easily reached two minutes.Columbia-HTC won the stage and had 8 guys in the break of 27. You couldn't play it any better. Cav was awesome AGAIN!Also Astana benefited greatly with Lance in the break. He rode smarter than any of the other GC riders. It's good for Contador too. He's still the man to beat but they have another card to play in Lance.The team time trial is going to be awesome tomorrow. I think the order of the top 5 will be:1. Astana2. Columbia3 Saxo bank4 Garmin5. LiquidgasThis day will be big for Evans and Menchov as well. They have to limit their loses if they want to be sitting on the top step. Tomorrow is going to be wicked fun.The only problem i see with todays time trial is that none of the Astana riders will lose any time on each other. The GC could conceivably be 1. Armstrong 2. Contador 3. Kloden 4. Leipheimer by this evening. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 7, 2009 Author Share Posted July 7, 2009 The only problem i see with todays time trial is that none of the Astana riders will lose any time on each other. The GC could conceivably be 1. Armstrong 2. Contador 3. Kloden 4. Leipheimer by this evening.I would be shocked (not surprised) if this were to happen. I don't think Saxo Bank will give up :40 seconds. They have a strong team too. I think that Cancellara will be in yellow after today. Armstrong in second Contador in 3rd Martin in 4th Kloden and Kloden rounding out the top 5. Which is perfect for Astana.Silence Lotto had to do a lot of work yesterday. I think they may lose 3 minutes. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 7, 2009 Author Share Posted July 7, 2009 The only problem i see with todays time trial is that none of the Astana riders will lose any time on each other. The GC could conceivably be 1. Armstrong 2. Contador 3. Kloden 4. Leipheimer by this evening.You almost got it nailed. Cancellera was super strong but Astana is just stupid. They've got 5 in the top 7. Tomorrow looks like another day for Cav-o Link to post Share on other sites
rinswun 6 Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 You almost got it nailed. Cancellera was super strong but Astana is just stupid. They've got 5 in the top 7. Tomorrow looks like another day for Cav-oyep, with the crosswinds they are getting its almost impossible for a breakaway to stay out all day at the moment. i expect this one to go down like mondays stage - but without the split in the pelaton. cant see cav getting beaten though it'd be nice if boonen or friere were to at least feature! Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 yep, with the crosswinds they are getting its almost impossible for a breakaway to stay out all day at the moment. i expect this one to go down like mondays stage - but without the split in the pelaton. cant see cav getting beaten though it'd be nice if boonen or friere were to at least feature!Just read Armstrong's Twitter page. Apparently, Thor used to live in the area and wants to win today's stage bad. He also predicted a field sprint. I think the other teams need to do something different. Cav and Columbia too good. One of the other teams need to launch an attack 1k from the finish. Columbia doesn't care about the GC they want the green and stage wins. Also has 4 wicked strong riders. Miller, Vande Veld, Dave Z, and Wiggins. They were impressive yesterday. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 The Mountains!The tour starts today!Will Armstrong get yellow?I don't think so. I think Contador asserts himself.Going to be a beautiful day!GC after today1. Contodor2. Armstrong3. Kloden4. Levi5. Martin Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 I think Contador asserts himself.You should have used a capital "A" for Asserts. He pulled away and made it look like everyone else was standing still. Pretty crazy ride by the young Frenchman. That could very well be the career highlight for that guy. Some triathletes are such pansies. Everyone is complaining about the 2 mile 4% and 2 mile 2% grade in my event on Sunday. The helicopter view of that climb today was stunning. Link to post Share on other sites
rinswun 6 Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 contador was very impressive but i kinda wish armstrong was on a different team because he didnt look in trouble at all, played the good team mate role and let marked evans and schleck all the way. i have a feeling if contador crashes or something, we will see armstrong dominate Link to post Share on other sites
rinswun 6 Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 also a quick word for bradley wiggins, incredible ride from him yesterday - score another one for the brits! Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 contador was very impressive but i kinda wish armstrong was on a different team because he didnt look in trouble at all, played the good team mate role and let marked evans and schleck all the way. i have a feeling if contador crashes or something, we will see armstrong dominate Contador was impressive but he attacked his team that was riding tempo. You could tell that Levi was a little annoyed but to AC's credit he's two seconds up on Armstrong so if the Yellow jersey falls off it goes on his shoulder not Armstrong's. The race is really shaping up to be an Astana show. Today's stage was sort of a joke. When Andy Schleck attacked the first four riders to react were Armstrong, Levi, Contator and Klodi. The team is SO strong. Haimar Zubeldia finished FIFTH in the tour and is fetching water bottles. I heard that Schleck put in an the attack so that Astana would get the jersey. But Astana neutralized the attack then slowed the pace so much that the yellow jersey was able to catch back on. If Astana wanted the jersey, the gas would not have been left off. Tomorrow is another day in the mountains but there's like 30 miles to the finish. I see another break getting away and staying away. I would not be surprised if Astana let's another rider go up the road and take the jersey. As for Wiggo, Garmin is riding really well. He and Vande Velde were there at the end again. They both have a shot a top 10. The drama is just getting started. This year's tour is more about what's happening off the bike as well as on. Could this be 1986 all over again?Actually, I would love it if Levi won and made Lance and AC work for him. That would indeed be poetic justice but I don't see that happening. Link to post Share on other sites
rinswun 6 Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 you really know your shit man, good job. where do you go for most of your cycling related news? Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 12, 2009 Author Share Posted July 12, 2009 you really know your shit man, good job. where do you go for most of your cycling related news?Thanks. I've been a huge fan forever. The best places to go for English speakers are:cyclingnews.com (although they just re-skinned their site and it sucks.)velonews.com (not as good but they do fairly good job)livestrong.org has some cool vids too. Also a lot of the riders are on twitter. (Armstrong does the most updates)Today's stage was a real sleeper. The mountains were too far from the finish. The rest day should be interesting. 1 day no races - lots of stories about Contador VS ArmstrongAlso the 'no radios' for two stages should be very interesting. about 15 teams don't like the radio ban. I'm sure the ones that don't care are the French Teams. Link to post Share on other sites
rinswun 6 Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 Thanks. I've been a huge fan forever. The best places to go for English speakers are:cyclingnews.com (although they just re-skinned their site and it sucks.)velonews.com (not as good but they do fairly good job)livestrong.org has some cool vids too. Also a lot of the riders are on twitter. (Armstrong does the most updates)Today's stage was a real sleeper. The mountains were too far from the finish. The rest day should be interesting. 1 day no races - lots of stories about Contador VS ArmstrongAlso the 'no radios' for two stages should be very interesting. about 15 teams don't like the radio ban. I'm sure the ones that don't care are the French Teams.i didnt hear about the ban - what happened there? Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 13, 2009 Author Share Posted July 13, 2009 i didnt hear about the ban - what happened there?It's the French trying to bring the race back to the 'good old days'. Team Motorola in 1991 brought radios into cycling and ever since the riders have become robots. They are great for the Team Directors because they can better instruct their riders and point out anything dangerous that might be happening up the road. But they also killed the creativity on the road. No longer can a break get 5 minutes up the road without everyone knowing who is in the break and what kind of threat they are to the other teams. Some say that cycling has lost some of it's passion/bravado because now it's so regimented. Nothing is 'freelanced' any more. Riders don't have to be tactical they can leave it up to their directors.I think it's a novel idea and I think they it could spice up the race. But I think the only thing it will do is cause mass confusion. I don't think it's fair to the teams to take part in this experiment in the final week of the tour - the most important week in cycling. If the ASO (that's the french company that controls the tour) wanted to give this experiment a go they should have first tried it out in one the smaller races that they control like Paris-Nice or the Dauphine Libere. But it's going to happen so it might be very very interesting. I'm sure there is going to be a rider protest - Not sure what it will be. Lance is big voice. He's been gone for 4 years but he's still the patron (boss) in the peloton. Link to post Share on other sites
SlapStick 0 Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 I know nothing about this. Does Lance still have a chance? Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 I know nothing about this. Does Lance still have a chance?He's 8 seconds off the lead, if that means anything. It's still early and Astana seem to have some internal conflicts, but Lance has a chance, that's for sure. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 13, 2009 Author Share Posted July 13, 2009 I know nothing about this. Does Lance still have a chance?Armstrong is definitely a contender for the overall. He's sitting 8 seconds back. Normally that would be considered the ideal position but with Contador 6 seconds back, confusion reigns. Astana clearly has the two strongest riders in the race and I think it's safe to say that they have 4 of the top 8. Nothing really big will happen until next Saturday when the teams hit the Alps. That being said, there could be another split on the flats due to windy conditions. However, I don't see that happening. Astana doesn't want the jersey until the last week. The team dynamic on Astana is fascinating. Cycling is unlike most sports. It's a team sport but individual goals may be different. As of today, Contador clearly has the edge physically, but Armstrong has a huge advantage in the psychological department. For one, he has a killer instinct. Lance won't just knock you down, he'll step on your throat as he goes by. Alberto doesn't have that. If Contador doesn't have a clear advantage before the final time trial, the race dynamic could become one awesome cluster ****.Lance could have the yellow jersey going into the final climb of the tour - Mont Ventoux - by tradition it would be Contador's role to protect the yellow jersey but since it's by far the hardest climb in France, Contador could win the tour on that stage alone - he is that strong. So what will happen? It could be drama on the first order. The other curious thing to watch is if there is a division within Astana where will the support riders go. There are 9 ridersCONTADOR can count on Paulino for sure and perhaps Zubeldia because he's Spanish (but he's also Basque so not 100%.)ARMSTRONG clearly has Leipheimer in his corner as well as Popovych. I think Kloden has his own ambitions. Muravyey will do whatever the team tells him to do an Rast is Swiss so I'm sure he'll be neutral. And Brunyeel, the team director, clearly wants Armstrong to win his 8th tour. ***** Cliff Notes******Armstrong - Yes, an 8th tour is a real possibility Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now