2/4 pp - good raise on the turn?

[amarillotg 0]

hero dealt :spadesk: :spadesj: 1 fold, utg+1 calls, 1 fold, mp1 calls, hero raises, 1 fold, sb 3-bets, bb folds, utg+1 folds, mp1 folds, hero callsflop (2 players, 9BB) :diamondsj: :spades2: :hearts5: sb bets, hero raises, sb 3-bets, hero callsturn (2 players, 15BB) :spades8: sb bets, hero raises, sb...........is this a good raise here? the way the betting went on the flop i put him on an overpair. only about the 5th hand at the table and hadn't seen the sb play a hand yet.

[Nutcracker 0]

Absent reads, I gotta think he has an overpair and won't slow down, so I'd just call. If I knew he'd just call and check to me on the river, I definately raise that. It's certainly not a value raise, as it's nearly certain he has an overpair or AJ and you've only got 14 outs to improve.

[Nutcracker 0]

Oh, and your pot size is wrong. It's 9 SB on flop and 7.5 BB on turn.

[Don Giovanni 0]

i would have just called on the turn. that 8 is not gonna scare him so he would probly 3 bet you so just call. and just call the river unless you improve.

[jayboogie 0]

Just call the turn, if you happen to hit your flush or one of your other outs, your going to be able to pop the raise in anyways especially since your flushdraw is a backdoor one. You've gotta figure your probably behind here most of the time, but are going to call down, because the pot is big. One of the fundamental concepts of poker is getting your money in as a favorite, not as an underdog.

[dimseven 0]

If You put him on an overpair, just call the turn and raise the river if You hit the flush.

[amarillotg 0]

thanks for the input. i figured i was a little too aggressive here.

[Rocketwadster 0]

I don't think there is anything wrong with raising the turn there. Your total number of outs just skyrocketed, and even though they may not be for the nuts, when heads-up, you gotta push those edges I think.Raising here may also give you a free showdown if you don't improve. 8)

[rog 0]

Where does 14 outs come from? You have 9 to the flush. Okay. 2 outs for trip jacks...11 so far. What about your 3 Kings? You have him on an overpair. If it's QQ, you have 3 outs. If it's KK or AA, you have none. I'd say it's fair to treat this as 12 outs.Next problem. It's heads up. You'd need 20+ outs for a value raise depending on how much fold equity you have. You have NO fold equity. An overpair is showing down and possibly betting out on the river no matter what you do here. Raise for value sucks here. Raise for fold equity sucks here. I cant think of one good reason to raise the turn.

[jayboogie 0]

I don't think there is anything wrong with raising the turn there. Your total number of outs just skyrocketed, and even though they may not be for the nuts, when heads-up, you gotta push those edges I think.Raising here may also give you a free showdown if you don't improve. 8)

It's not exactly a free showdown. Your putting in the same amount of bets that you would calling down. By just calling, you could fold the river UI given that your read is that your behind and save yourself a bet. Like I said, you'll be able to pop the river anyways if you hit, so there's not much point in raising here. The only way a raise is good here is if you think your actually ahead or you'll get your opponent to fold a better hand, both of which are very unlikely.

[Nutcracker 0]

I don't think there is anything wrong with raising the turn there. Your total number of outs just skyrocketed, and even though they may not be for the nuts, when heads-up, you gotta push those edges I think.

You want to push positive edges, not negative ones. With 14 outs, you're only around 33% to hit. And as I said, if you know your opponent would slow down with an overpair and just call this and check to you on the river, I'd definately raise. But absent reads, you must assume he's going to continue firing with his overpair and just call the turn.

Where does 14 outs come from? You have 9 to the flush. Okay. 2 outs for trip jacks...11 so far. What about your 3 Kings? You have him on an overpair. If it's QQ, you have 3 outs. If it's KK or AA, you have none. I'd say it's fair to treat this as 12 outs.

2 pair beats 1 pair. He has 14 outs.

[rog 0]

2 pair beats 1 pair. He has 14 outs.

Yeah, you're right, and my fingers work faster than my brain. You have 3 outs against AA and QQ, but no king outs against KK. Does that deserve a discount to 13 outs? Come one man...I'm trying to save face here.

[Rocketwadster 0]

I don't think there is anything wrong with raising the turn there. Your total number of outs just skyrocketed' date=' and even though they may not be for the nuts' date=' when heads-up, you gotta push those edges I think. [/quote'']You want to push positive edges, not negative ones. With 14 outs, you're only around 33% to hit. And as I said, if you know your opponent would slow down with an overpair and just call this and check to you on the river, I'd definately raise. But absent reads, you must assume he's going to continue firing with his overpair and just call the turn.By betting here, one of three things will happen. 1) You will win the pot outright.2) Your opponent will call.3) Your opponent will raise.2 of the three options are good for us (#3 sucks). Just calling his bet there on the turn is way too weak I think. We may not even need to improve in order to win this pot, but with the 14 outs that someone came up with to improve our hand, I still advocate raising the turn. EDIT - (forgot we had a king) Look at it from your opponents perspective, with the range of hands that you would 3-bet pre-flop with out of position (for me, it would be pocket aces (6), kings (3), queens (6), jacks (1), ace king (12), ace queen (16), ace jack (suited only)(2)). We can beat 28 of those hands without improving, losing to 18 of them. I think this is a positive edge, no? Maybe my math is wrong... :?

[rog 0]

By betting here, one of three things will happen. 1) You will win the pot outright.2) Your opponent will call.3) Your opponent will raise.2 of the three options are good for us (#3 sucks). Just calling his bet there on the turn is way too weak I think. We may not even need to improve in order to win this pot, but with the 14 outs that someone came up with to improve our hand, I still advocate raising the turn. Look at it from your opponents perspective, with the range of hands that you would 3-bet pre-flop with out of position (for me, it would be pocket aces (6), kings (6), queens (6), jacks (1), ace king (12), ace queen (16), ace jack (suited only)(2)). We can beat 28 of those hands without improving, losing to 21 of them. I think this is a positive edge, no? Maybe my math is wrong... :?

I think it's optimistic to think AQ is 3-betting this flop and leading the turn. Maybe it's an edge if all hands are equally likely, but it seems that an overpair is the most likely holding. If you think you win this pot at showdown more than half the time without improving, you have a positive edge. I dont think so.

[Rocketwadster 0]

By betting here, one of three things will happen. 1) You will win the pot outright.2) Your opponent will call.3) Your opponent will raise.2 of the three options are good for us (#3 sucks). Just calling his bet there on the turn is way too weak I think. We may not even need to improve in order to win this pot, but with the 14 outs that someone came up with to improve our hand, I still advocate raising the turn. Look at it from your opponents perspective, with the range of hands that you would 3-bet pre-flop with out of position (for me, it would be pocket aces (6), kings (6), queens (6), jacks (1), ace king (12), ace queen (16), ace jack (suited only)(2)). We can beat 28 of those hands without improving, losing to 21 of them. I think this is a positive edge, no? Maybe my math is wrong... :?

I think it's optimistic to think AQ is 3-betting this flop and leading the turn. Maybe it's an edge if all hands are equally likely, but it seems that an overpair is the most likely holding. If you think you win this pot at showdown more than half the time without improving, you have a positive edge. I dont think so.

I've only dabbled in $2/4, so maybe it is different there, but I see ace queen doing just that more often than I would like to see at $1/2 and lower. I've done it myself on occasion, with fairly good success. It's not about the cards you hold, its about what your opponent thinks you hold. 8)

[Nutcracker 0]

2 pair beats 1 pair. He has 14 outs.

Yeah, you're right, and my fingers work faster than my brain. You have 3 outs against AA and QQ, but no king outs against KK. Does that deserve a discount to 13 outs? Come one man...I'm trying to save face here.

Well, if you hit a K, it's highy improbable that he has KK. Even with just 1 K in your hand, AA and QQ are more likely, due to the fewer number of K available. If you limit him to these 3 hands, he's got KK like 20% of the time. Maybe you can discount 1 out because of that

[Nutcracker 0]

I don't think there is anything wrong with raising the turn there. Your total number of outs just skyrocketed, and even though they may not be for the nuts, when heads-up, you gotta push those edges I think.

You want to push positive edges, not negative ones. With 14 outs, you're only around 33% to hit. And as I said, if you know your opponent would slow down with an overpair and just call this and check to you on the river, I'd definately raise. But absent reads, you must assume he's going to continue firing with his overpair and just call the turn.

By betting here, one of three things will happen. 1) You will win the pot outright.2) Your opponent will call.3) Your opponent will raise.2 of the three options are good for us (#3 sucks). Just calling his bet there on the turn is way too weak I think. We may not even need to improve in order to win this pot, but with the 14 outs that someone came up with to improve our hand, I still advocate raising the turn. Look at it from your opponents perspective, with the range of hands that you would 3-bet pre-flop with out of position (for me, it would be pocket aces (6), kings (6), queens (6), jacks (1), ace king (12), ace queen (16), ace jack (suited only)(2)). We can beat 28 of those hands without improving, losing to 21 of them. I think this is a positive edge, no? Maybe my math is wrong... :?

If 1) happens, he was firing away with UI AK. Why wouldn't you want him firing again on the river? If he's weak enough to fold at this point, you're way ahead and betting has no value. You want him to continue bluffing if you're ahead. He's very unlikely to catch up.If 2) happens, it worked. Notice I said that if my opponent has a tendency to just call overpairs when raised on the turn, I'll raise him here for a free showdown if I miss and an extra bet when I hit (though chances are, you'd get the extra bet out of him anyway on the river). So basically, unless I'm sure my opponent will do this, it is -EV to raise, since you rarely get any extra bets out of him on this line when you hit and lose a lot more when he doesn't call down.If 3) happens, you just spewed chips at a large equity deficit. Putting in 3BB with about a 30% chance to win the pot means you lost 1.2BB on this street alone. Perhaps if you hit, he'll spew on the river and pay off, but I'm thinking he's gonna be a bit more cautious on the river, so it's gonna be even harder to pry chips out of him.Raising seriously does not accomplish anything. The more I think about it, I might not raise even if I'm 90% sure my opponent will just call and then check to me on the river. Because that 10% when I'm wrong is very costly and the 90% when I'm right only rarely gains me an extra bet.

[Rocketwadster 0]

If we are currently ahead of 28 hands out of 49, with 13 outs to improve our hand that would not lose, it still seems like a good thing to raise here on the turn. The number of probable hands that are out there that would 3-bet the turn when we raise (and we are losing to) seems minimal to me, and like I said in my original post, we are most likely going to get a free card on the river more times than not. Calling down from the turn on UI seems way too weak... :?

[greatwhite 0]

I think you should just call on the turn and only bet on the river if you hit any of your outs or if they check.

[Nutcracker 0]

If we are currently ahead of 28 hands out of 49, with 13 outs to improve our hand that would not lose, it still seems like a good thing to raise here on the turn. The number of probable hands that are out there that would 3-bet the turn when we raise (and we are losing to) seems minimal to me, and like I said in my original post, we are most likely going to get a free card on the river more times than not. Calling down from the turn on UI seems way too weak... :?

Think about it like a wa/wb except that we're not way behind. If we're ahead here (which I don't think is as likely as you think, but I'll address that later), and he's just firing with UI AK/AQ, he's going to fold to our raise more likely than not. You may think that's a good thing, but it's not. I'd rather let him fire again on the river in hopes of winning and getting an extra bet out of him. I'd say AQ is not real likely (not many people 3 bet AQ from the sb, nor do they 3 bet a missed flop with it), so AK is by far the most likely hand that we have beat here, and it only has 3 outs to beat us. I'd rather get an extra bet on the river myself.Now, as far as you thinking that we're ahead over 50% of the time here.. Get real. If it had gone bet/call on the flop, I could agree that it's "close" to 50%, but seeing as how he 3-bet the flop, I'd say we're ahead here maybe 20% of the time, maybe. And again, if we are ahead, we're actually losing a little money (might be slightly +EV to get him out, depending on if he fires a 3rd round with UI AK) by betting him out on the turn rather than letting him fire on the river. I think the chance of being beat and summarily losing 4 BB from turn/river far outweighs any perceived benefit from the slight chance of being ahead and betting him out of the pot here.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Pot currently has 7.5BB (at least someone said it did...i didnt check).SB bets, if we call, it now has 9.5 BB.orSB bets, we raise, SB calls, it now has 11.5 BB.orSB bets, we raise, SB re-raises, we can fold or call. If we call, it now has 13.5BB.For all plays as indicated above, are we going to call the river bet (at a minimum) regardless of the card that comes? I would hope so, as the worst case scenario has it at us possibly winning 10.5BB for one BB. If we are going to call on the river anyway, why would we not want to raise the turn? It's not a bluff, its a value bet. As I indicated in my crazy math, we are ahead more times than we are behind. I have stated many times that I am terrbiel when it comes to the math, so maybe I am way off... :?