Trip Ks

[riverrat 0]

Here is a scenario that my friend told me about and I was stunned that he folded. I am curious about the math piece. He recently moved from playing $2/$5 to $5/$10 at the local card room here. He is one of the most aggressive players I know and he is also one of the best. He has done so well at $2/$5 that he now has several guys that want to back him and he is considering playing for a living. Having said that, I don't think I could have ever folded the following hand. W/$2k in front of him he was dealt KK and rased to $55 from early position. He got 7 callers. The flop was KS 10C 4H. UTG checked, he led out for $200 and everyone else folded except for UTG who called. The turn was a QS and UTG shoved for $2200. My friend took about 5 minutes and eventually folded. His logic was that he had only invested $250 and the game was soft so he would pick a better spot. He said he just couldn't figure out why a solid player would shove there. He eventually cashed for a little over $3k so ultimately it may have been the right decsion, I just think there are sooo many possible hands to put the villain on that you can't possibly fold. He did say the guy is a good player so I guess there is a chance the guy is shoving trying to disguise the strength of his hand. Just curious what some thoughts are in this situation. Am I wrong to think this is a pretty easy call?

[KingJames 11]

great fold and maths is over ratedhe felt he was behind... poker is all about feel and experience!just like when Mike McD folded top two vs teddy KGB bc Mike knew teddy had a made hand and he isn't drawing vs a made hand... lays down a monster... should have paid teddy off...

[fighter 4]

While his logic of "why would a 'good' player shove with less then a straight here" might be valid. I think a better question is why would a good player limp/call pre w/J9s or AJs and then c/c with only a gut shot on the flop when he is close to closing the action. Then after taking this line open shove into the guy with the nuts. I think that he could have just as easily have QQ,KQ,KT,TT,44,QT. Even if we are wrong we still have a lot of outs and a very useful note.

[Nashtak 0]

Here is a scenario that my friend told me about and I was stunned that he folded. I am curious about the math piece. He recently moved from playing $2/$5 to $5/$10 at the local card room here. He is one of the most aggressive players I know and he is also one of the best. He has done so well at $2/$5 that he now has several guys that want to back him and he is considering playing for a living. Having said that, I don't think I could have ever folded the following hand. W/$2k in front of him he was dealt KK and rased to $55 from early position. He got 7 callers. The flop was KS 10C 4H. UTG checked, he led out for $200 and everyone else folded except for UTG who called. The turn was a QS and UTG shoved for $2200. My friend took about 5 minutes and eventually folded. His logic was that he had only invested $250 and the game was soft so he would pick a better spot. He said he just couldn't figure out why a solid player would shove there. He eventually cashed for a little over $3k so ultimately it may have been the right decsion, I just think there are sooo many possible hands to put the villain on that you can't possibly fold. He did say the guy is a good player so I guess there is a chance the guy is shoving trying to disguise the strength of his hand. Just curious what some thoughts are in this situation. Am I wrong to think this is a pretty easy call?

I think it's pretty safe to assume this logic is flawed. Unless he really can't afford a beat.

[fighter 4]

I think it's pretty safe to assume this logic is flawed. Unless he really can't afford a beat.

correct

Wait for a better spot.Usually the better spot will be there regardless of what we do in the current hand. While it's possible that some odd metagame concern links the hands, in the vast majority of the cases we should be looking to maximize our expected value in the hand in isolation.

http://no-limit-holdem.wikidot.com/

[riverrat 0]

While his logic of "why would a 'good' player shove with less then a straight here" might be valid. I think a better question is why would a good player limp/call pre w/J9s or AJs and then c/c with only a gut shot on the flop when he is close to closing the action. Then after taking this line open shove into the guy with the nuts. I think that he could have just as easily have QQ,KQ,KT,TT,44,QT. Even if we are wrong we still have a lot of outs and a very useful note.

Yeah, I told him the more logical line to me would be a smaller set or two pair (and actually KQ if I had to take a pick seemed like the most likely to me b/c it looks like he thinks he is protecting the best hand and doesn't want to see the river).

[riverrat 0]

I think it's pretty safe to assume this logic is flawed. Unless he really can't afford a beat.

And that is the thing, he can afford the beat. He tries to limit his losing sessions to no more than $3k and he never ever plays scared. The guy he was up against is pretty wealthy and I think he just didn't know my friend well enough to realize that he is not the kind of guy you want to try and bluff off of a hand. To me AJ and J9 seemed like very unlikely holdings given the line on this hand too.

[trystero 0]

weird handmaybe JsTs? QJ?

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

While his logic of "why would a 'good' player shove with less then a straight here" might be valid. I think a better question is why would a good player limp/call pre w/J9s or AJs and then c/c with only a gut shot on the flop when he is close to closing the action. Then after taking this line open shove into the guy with the nuts. I think that he could have just as easily have QQ,KQ,KT,TT,44,QT. Even if we are wrong we still have a lot of outs and a very useful note.

This.Maybe I'm just a donk - maybe? - but I'm paying this off and being ok with a bunch of outs on the River if he hit his stinking gut shot. "Feels" more like a combo draw. Of course they always get there against me so, you know...

[mtdesmoines 3]

Here is a scenario that my friend told me about and I was stunned that he folded. I am curious about the math piece. He recently moved from playing $2/$5 to $5/$10 at the local card room here. He is one of the most aggressive players I know and he is also one of the best. He has done so well at $2/$5 that he now has several guys that want to back him and he is considering playing for a living. Having said that, I don't think I could have ever folded the following hand. W/$2k in front of him he was dealt KK and rased to $55 from early position. He got 7 callers. The flop was KS 10C 4H. UTG checked, he led out for $200 and everyone else folded except for UTG who called. The turn was a QS and UTG shoved for $2200. My friend took about 5 minutes and eventually folded. His logic was that he had only invested $250 and the game was soft so he would pick a better spot. He said he just couldn't figure out why a solid player would shove there. He eventually cashed for a little over $3k so ultimately it may have been the right decsion, I just think there are sooo many possible hands to put the villain on that you can't possibly fold. He did say the guy is a good player so I guess there is a chance the guy is shoving trying to disguise the strength of his hand. Just curious what some thoughts are in this situation. Am I wrong to think this is a pretty easy call?

I think he gets show a straight about 40% of the time here. I think he gets shown an underset about 30% of the time here. I think he gets shown two pair 20% of the time here. I think he gets shown a combo draw/pair 10% of the time here. I think if it's a straight, villain played it well, by calling with huge implied odds and shoving into an unfoldable hand. Do I think a competent villain, as described is capable of this? Yeah, 50% of the time. He was closing action with a lot of $ behind and had a shot at a huge pot. So many weird things happen live for any number of reasons. It's part of why I love live poker. I think if the game is soft, I'm MORE likely to call, so I don't necessarily agree with his logic.

[BaseJester 1]

Board: Ks Tc 4h QsDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	42.127%	  42.13% 	00.00% 			  1557 			0.00   { KK }Hand 1: 	57.873%	  57.87% 	00.00% 			  2139 			0.00   { QQ, TT, AJs, AsTs, JsTs, J9s, AJo }

4330 = Total Pot1745 = To call0.403 = BE% I think calling here is the best play. I can't really match up a solid villain with limp/calling for 5x holding J9s or AJo UTG.