Shoot Loose vs Canadian Gothic
This is going to be a *very* close series. I see Gothic as a pretty big favorite in game 1 (1.1 goals), but game 2 is a coin flip (0.155 edge to Gothic). Game 3 is a big edge to SHLS (1.4 goals), games 4 (0.06 CDNG), 5 (0.08 SHLS), and 6 (0.11 (SHLS) are coin flips... So far, we're pretty even. 4 coin flips and one game each with a big edge. So it comes down to game 7. Shoot Loose have a 1 goal edge, that's pretty big, so they get the nod. But understand, this series could go either way. Odds are probably between 51-49 and 55-45 with the slight edge to SHLS. Shoot Loose in 7*.
Key injuries - Gothic: Johansson (IR), Zaitsev (DTD), Smith (DTD), Shoot Loose: McAvoy (DTD), Boeser (DTD), Rodrigues (DTD)
Shortstackers vs Swackers
i don't see this one being quite as close. Stackers have big edges in the first two games (1.7 and 1.4 goals respectively). Swacker Dave's only edge comes in game 3 (0.4). Games 4-7 are all tilted in favour of the Shortstackers (0.47, 0.28, 0.95, 0.70). These are not necessarily dominant edges, so Swackers can steal, but I don't think it's likely he takes 3 of 4, in addition to winning the game where he's got the edge. Let's give Swackers 2 wins. Shortstackers in 6.
Key injuries - Shortstackers: Josh Anderson (IR), Ondrej Palat (IR), Mark Stone (DTD), Swackers: Loui Eriksson (IR), Kevin Shattenkirk (IR), Chris Tanev (DTD)
Puck Warfare vs Broadway
I have Broadway with a negative projection in game 1. Is this possible? Did I mess up BWY's roster or something? Anyways, I like John, but this will not be a long series. I show Puck Warfare with the edge in all 7 games, with no edge smaller than 0.33 (Game 4). This series should be 3-0 after the first 3 games (2.9, 0.87, 1.5). Should it make it past game 4, Warfare has edges of 0.86, 1.6, 1.4 in games 5, 6, and 7 respectively. Puck Warfare in 5.
Key injuries - Puck Warfare: Jared Spurgeon (IR), Zdeno Chara (DTD), Broadway: Anders Bjork (IR), Jay Bouwmeester (IR), Alan Quine (DTD)
Notes on methodology:
At this point, if a player is listed as being injured, the expectation is they're gone for the series. This isn't exactly accurate. Also note, injury data is obviously spotty, which is another reason why just assuming everyone is out until they aren't is the best way to go.
*However, to dig a little deeper, if Reilly Smith and Nikita Zaitsev are both back for the series, Gothic become the team with the slight to medium edge in all 4 "coin flip" games, and I'd probably change my prediction to Gothic in 6. Of course, that ignores McAvoy and Boeser potentially returning, two impact players. So, basically, I stick with my original prediction above.
Zaitsev is only slotted to play game 3 in which I'm already a dog so his return is pretty much irrelevant. A Smith return would be swell.
Boeser is done for the year and I doubt Boston is in much of a hurry to rush McAvoy back.
Shoot Loose also lost DeAngelo who wouldn't have played anyway.