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#19721 digitalmonkey

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Posted 15 March 2018 - 07:26 AM

View PostZach6668, on 14 March 2018 - 08:01 PM, said:

Let's make some predictions...

Shoot Loose vs Canadian Gothic
This is going to be a *very* close series. I see Gothic as a pretty big favorite in game 1 (1.1 goals), but game 2 is a coin flip (0.155 edge to Gothic). Game 3 is a big edge to SHLS (1.4 goals), games 4 (0.06 CDNG), 5 (0.08 SHLS), and 6 (0.11 (SHLS) are coin flips... So far, we're pretty even. 4 coin flips and one game each with a big edge. So it comes down to game 7. Shoot Loose have a 1 goal edge, that's pretty big, so they get the nod. But understand, this series could go either way. Odds are probably between 51-49 and 55-45 with the slight edge to SHLS. Shoot Loose in 7*.

Key injuries - Gothic: Johansson (IR), Zaitsev (DTD), Smith (DTD), Shoot Loose: McAvoy (DTD), Boeser (DTD), Rodrigues (DTD)


Shortstackers vs Swackers
i don't see this one being quite as close. Stackers have big edges in the first two games (1.7 and 1.4 goals respectively). Swacker Dave's only edge comes in game 3 (0.4). Games 4-7 are all tilted in favour of the Shortstackers (0.47, 0.28, 0.95, 0.70). These are not necessarily dominant edges, so Swackers can steal, but I don't think it's likely he takes 3 of 4, in addition to winning the game where he's got the edge. Let's give Swackers 2 wins. Shortstackers in 6.

Key injuries - Shortstackers: Josh Anderson (IR), Ondrej Palat (IR), Mark Stone (DTD), Swackers: Loui Eriksson (IR), Kevin Shattenkirk (IR), Chris Tanev (DTD)


Puck Warfare vs Broadway
I have Broadway with a negative projection in game 1. Is this possible? Did I mess up BWY's roster or something? Anyways, I like John, but this will not be a long series. I show Puck Warfare with the edge in all 7 games, with no edge smaller than 0.33 (Game 4). This series should be 3-0 after the first 3 games (2.9, 0.87, 1.5). Should it make it past game 4, Warfare has edges of 0.86, 1.6, 1.4 in games 5, 6, and 7 respectively. Puck Warfare in 5.


Key injuries - Puck Warfare: Jared Spurgeon (IR), Zdeno Chara (DTD), Broadway: Anders Bjork (IR), Jay Bouwmeester (IR), Alan Quine (DTD)




Notes on methodology:
At this point, if a player is listed as being injured, the expectation is they're gone for the series. This isn't exactly accurate. Also note, injury data is obviously spotty, which is another reason why just assuming everyone is out until they aren't is the best way to go.



*However, to dig a little deeper, if Reilly Smith and Nikita Zaitsev are both back for the series, Gothic become the team with the slight to medium edge in all 4 "coin flip" games, and I'd probably change my prediction to Gothic in 6. Of course, that ignores McAvoy and Boeser potentially returning, two impact players. So, basically, I stick with my original prediction above.

Zaitsev is only slotted to play game 3 in which I'm already a dog so his return is pretty much irrelevant. A Smith return would be swell.

Boeser is done for the year and I doubt Boston is in much of a hurry to rush McAvoy back.

Shoot Loose also lost DeAngelo who wouldn't have played anyway.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

#19722 Zach6668

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Posted 15 March 2018 - 08:08 AM

Yeah, I only added Zaitsev's name to the post because I realized I added him back then ran it. Guys outside of your top 9 F or top 6 D rarely have an impact.

I thought Boeser was out longer, and same with McAvoy, but I just decided to go with what Rotoworld listed for simplicity. However, as noted, if they're on the list there, they're assumed to be out for the entire series.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#19723 FCP Bob

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Posted 15 March 2018 - 09:49 AM

Here is the permanent link for the live scoreboard. The other one was the test link. There is also a link from the main website. http://alternativeho..._scoreboard.php
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#19724 FCP Bob

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Posted 16 March 2018 - 02:22 AM

Game 1 Thursday March 15th Results

Championship Semi Finals

#1 Shoot Loose 3.5
#2 Canadian Gothic 1.0
Shoot Loose Lead Series 1-0

#1 Shortstackers 5.0
#2 Swackers 2.5
Shortstackers Lead Series 1-0

Reject Cup Finals

#7 Puck Warfare 3.5
#7 Broadway 3.5 - OT Win
Broadway Lead Series 1-0
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#19725 MapleLeafs

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Posted 16 March 2018 - 03:59 AM

The recap is wrong. St. Louis allowed 4 goals. Broadway wins in OT
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#19726 Zach6668

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Posted 16 March 2018 - 07:35 AM

controversy!!!
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#19727 serge

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Posted 16 March 2018 - 07:41 AM

You guys should be embarrassed. Both rejects would of beaten 3 of the 4 teams
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#19728 Zach6668

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Posted 16 March 2018 - 07:46 AM

View Postserge, on 16 March 2018 - 07:41 AM, said:

You guys should be embarrassed. Both rejects would of beaten 3 of the 4 teams

Which of the semi-final teams was the exception?
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#19729 serge

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Posted 16 March 2018 - 09:12 AM

View PostZach6668, on 16 March 2018 - 07:46 AM, said:



Which of the semi-final teams was the exception?

That would be the mighty Stackers.
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#19730 Zach6668

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Posted 16 March 2018 - 09:22 AM

Broadway's score was a surprise, but Puck Warfare had a stellar lineup that would not have looked out of place in the AHL semi-finals (or finals, for that matter). His projected score was higher than 2 of the semi-finalists, IIRC.

Tonight, a 6-gamer, depth (or lack thereof) is showing in the Reject Cup as the two teams have lower projected scores than any of the main playoff teams.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#19731 digitalmonkey

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Posted 16 March 2018 - 09:24 AM

View Postserge, on 16 March 2018 - 07:41 AM, said:

You guys should be embarrassed. Both rejects would of beaten 3 of the 4 teams

I am embarrassed. I'll try harder to score tonight.

Also...It's "would have" not "would of"... how embarrassing.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

#19732 FCP Bob

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Posted 16 March 2018 - 12:04 PM

View PostMapleLeafs, on 16 March 2018 - 03:59 AM, said:

The recap is wrong. St. Louis allowed 4 goals. Broadway wins in OT

I don't know how I screwed that up this morning. Fixed now
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#19733 Babying

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Posted 16 March 2018 - 12:44 PM

View PostFCP Bob, on 16 March 2018 - 12:04 PM, said:

I don't know how I screwed that up this morning. Fixed now

Its the Roids

#19734 FCP Bob

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Posted 17 March 2018 - 02:07 AM

Game 2 Friday March 16th Results

Championship Semi Finals

#1 Shoot Loose 1.0
#2 Canadian Gothic 1.5
Series Is Tied 1-1

#1 Shortstackers 7.5
#2 Swackers 2.5
Shortstackers Lead Series 2-0

Reject Cup Finals

#7 Puck Warfare 0.5
#7 Broadway 0.0
Series Is Tied 1-1
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#19735 serge

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Posted 17 March 2018 - 11:56 AM

Its Frickin St patricks day Dave..Wake the hell up already..Make this a series.
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#19736 FCP Bob

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Posted 18 March 2018 - 03:56 AM

Game 3 Saturday March 17th Results

Championship Semi Finals

#1 Shoot Loose -0.5
#2 Canadian Gothic 0.5
Canadian Gothic Lead Series 2-1

#1 Shortstackers 3.0 - OT Win
#2 Swackers 3.0
Shortstackers Lead Series 3-0

Reject Cup Finals

#7 Puck Warfare 4.5
#7 Broadway 0.5
Puck Warfare Lead Series 2-1
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#19737 digitalmonkey

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Posted 18 March 2018 - 07:44 PM

Congratulations on a great season, Dave!
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

#19738 FCP Bob

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Posted 19 March 2018 - 03:24 AM

Game 4 Sunday March 18th Results

Championship Semi Finals

#1 Shoot Loose 4.5
#2 Canadian Gothic 7.5
Canadian Gothic Lead Series 3-1

#1 Shortstackers 4.0
#2 Swackers 2.5
Shortstackers Win Series 4-0

Reject Cup Finals

#7 Puck Warfare 5.0
#7 Broadway -0.5
Puck Warfare Lead Series 3-1
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#19739 DanielNegreanu

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Posted 19 March 2018 - 08:11 PM

Early Look at Playoff Pool contracts from teams that have already punched their ticket:

TAMPA BAY

Steven Stamkos TBL F $13.25
J.T. Miller TBL F $4.25
Nikita Kucherov TBL F $3.00
Alex Killorn TBL F $2.50
Taylor Raddysh TBL F $2.00
Adam Erne TBL F $2.00
Brian Hart TBL F $1.50
Tyler Johnson TBL F $1.25
Ryan Callahan TBL F $1.00
Ondrej Palat TBL F $1.00
Mitchell Stephens TBL F $1.00
Mathieu Joseph TBL F $1.00
Brayden Point TBL F $1.00
Boris Katchouk TBL F $1.00
Chris Kunitz TBL F $0.75
Anthony Cirelli TBL F $0.50
Matthew Peca TBL F $0.25
Yanni Gourde TBL F $0.25
Cedric Pequette TBL F $0.25


Victor Hedman TBL D $7.25
Ryan McDonough TBL D $3.50
Mikhail Sergachev TBL D $2.50
Slater Koekkoek TBL D $2.00
Anton Stralman TBL D $1.75
Erik Cernak TBL D $1.00
Cal Foote TBL D $1.00
Jake Dotchin TBL D $0.50
Dominik Masin TBL D $0.50
Daniel Girardi TBL D $0.50
Braydon Coburn TBL D $0.25
Andrej Sustr TBL D $0.25

Goalies-A Tampa Bay TBL G $0.50



NASHVILLE

Ryan Johansen NSH F $6.00
Filip Forsberg NSH F $4.75
Kyle Turris NSH F $3.50
Eeli Tolvanen NSH F $3.00
Kevin Fiala NSH F $2.50
Calle Jarnkrok NSH F $2.50
Austin Watson NSH F $2.50
Ryan Hartman NSH F $1.50
Patrick Harper NSH F $1.50
Miikka Salomaki NSH F $1.50
Scott Hartnell NSH F $1.25
Viktor Arvidsson NSH F $1.00
Nick Bonino NSH F $0.75
Craig Smith NSH F $0.75
Frederick Gaudreau NSH $0.50
Colton Sissons NSH F $0.50


Roman Josi NSH D $6.75
Ryan Ellis NSH D $3.25
P.K. Subban NSH D $2.25
Dante Fabbro NSH D $2.00
Stefan Elliott NSH D $1.50
Mattias Ekholm NSH D $1.50
Yannick Weber NSH D $0.25
Alexei Emelin NSH D $0.25
Alexandre Carrier NSH D $0.25

Goalies-A Nashville NSH $0.75
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#19740 serge

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Posted 20 March 2018 - 07:43 AM

If Dale wins and goes to finals we have a very cool poker analogy.

Zach vs Dale is like old school vs new school.

Zach is GTO and Dale is more exploitative and feel player.

Dale has experience from the old days. Zach came up in the new internet age.

Itís Fedor vs Hellmuth

Itís the Germans vs the old school grinders.

Who will win?
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