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quiz question #8


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Poll: What would you do? (0 member(s) have cast votes)

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#41 RPGs316

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 12:51 PM

No way am I committing this much of my stack this early in the tournament when I'm drawing to a couple of outs. I'm getting out of there and saving my ammunition for a war that I'm sure I can win.

#42 Awful

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 01:02 PM

gregdon8 said:

Awful, you made some good points. What I am saying though is that you are basically throwing that extra 3500 inon the turn for no reason. No one should fold that with the pot odds. At least if say another jack hits (scary) or heart not an ace, you can still decide to fold that last bit if you really think that you are beat. Also, this is a WPT event which means that you have plenty of time to get your chips back up. As an example I will use a current example...yesterday Phi Ivey had only 20,000 chips in one point despite being the chip leader earlier that day (Reno). Through and insane rush he got his chips back up to 250,000 in a little less than two hours.Why throw in that last 3500 on the turn ? What do you hope to gain ? Points well taken though Awful.
Well, you get them in now when you're at least drawing live in some way vs. most opposing hands, as opposed to on the river where you don't have any redraws to compensate you and increase the value of your decision-making process, and having position, you're almost definitely getting the rest of your stack bet into you anyways on the river, so you'd be calling. Here's a case where being in position kind of sucks due to the math, betting, and aggression.Furthermore, the fact that you cannot know whether the river made you best or sealed your fate negates any advantage of call/folding, because you can accidentally outhink yourself in far too many ways.Finally, check-folding has you counting on such a rush. Folding or moving in do not require such a bizarre turn of events for that to happen. Rushes are the exception, not the rule, and as poker players, we like working less with the realm of possibility and more with the realm of probability.
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#43 rog

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 01:34 PM

DanielNegreanu said:

It's day one of a WPT event and you have your chips up to about 11,100 from it's original 10,000. The blinds are still 25-50 and you look down at Q :D Q :) and make it 150 to go. The button calls as does the big blind. The flop comes: J :D 9 :) 2 :) and the big blind checks to you. You bet 400 and the button calls. The big blind now check raises you to 1900, 1500 more. You call and the button folds. The turn card comes the K :D and your opponent bets 5500. You now have a flush draw as well as a straight draw. Based on what you know of the player you are quite sure that you are up against two pair, trips, A :club: J, or possibly a very small flush. The King doesn't scare you at all, but you are stil pretty sure that your opponent has the best hand. What would you do?
You're getting about 1.9 to 1 pot odds. A little worse actually. You need a whole lot of outs to make this call. What...14 or so? You might have 14 to a better hand, but they're not clean, and none of them draw to the nuts. Is this a trick question? Seems an obvious fold. If the pot odds and dirty outs aren't enough to make you fold, keep in mind how bloody early it is in the tournament. Survival (ie staying out of trouble) has to be the overriding concern at this point in the tourney. Yup. folding is the only option.
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#44 nitrolife

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 02:51 PM

I'll dam sure be interesting in hearing DN's reasoning if the answer is anything other than FOLD. Even your draws are'nt the nuts if you hit them. You don't have pot odds, but with an allin you are GIVING pot odds for him to call. Implied odds are'nt worth the risk, and calling is simply silly. If you call and hit, you don't know where you stand....if you miss you don't know where you stand...and it is unlikely you could lay it down anyway.BTW, I dislike the 400 bet, and hate the call for 1500 even more. Q's are too vulnerable to be playing them so cutesy. A 900-1000 bet into the 450 pot would have been better. Then if you get called proceed with caution, or check raised you can stuff them ladies in the muck. If you are called, it is easier to use the K as a scare card if you are feeling ballsy. You have shown strength.
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#45 ariston

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 04:13 PM

Easy one for me guys.- All in. You are "pretty sure he has one of the following hands "(none of which is the nuts). If he doesnt have the strongest hand you will be able to move him off the pot. He isnt going to risk his tournament this early on without having it. If he does make the call whichever hand from the list he holds you still have outs. If you trust your reading abilities on people you should trust them enough to follow your instincts.ariston

#46 Erudis

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 04:26 PM

ariston said:

If he doesnt have the strongest hand you will be able to move him off the pot.
wrong. you're not moving the other guy off the pot here as the pot odds dictate his call.if you move all-in here it can only be because you think you have the best hand - and in the OP daniel clearly says he thinks his hand is beat (unless opponent has AhJx, the only holding he thinks his opponent could have that he's actually ahead of).if you call you're just going to have the same decision to make once again at the river whether you improve or not! nobody honestly thinks the opponent is just gonna check-down the river do you? if you call here, the rest of your chips go in the pot too after you've already decided that you're most likely beat. tournament for you probably ends here on Day 1 if you callfolding, however, keeps your stack at over 9k (over 180 bb's!) and you're in fine shape to collect chips and win and all that jazz. folding is correct here

#47 SplashMaster

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 04:38 PM

akishore said:

i think a big reason behind my choice of all-in is that daniel is a new-school player, not an old-school player.old-school players thrive on survival thinking. they want to live past day 1 and day 2.daniel has stated publicly before that he doesn't believe in this. he prefers to be in many action pots in day 1 and day 2. he argues that all the bad players drop out on these days, and those chips have got to go somewhere--he prefers to be the one collecting all that dead money.granted, the BB in this hand was gavin griffin, but daniel's not one to fold a possible winner because he's scared of elimination...anyone agree?aseem
no I dont agre at all

#48 SplashMaster

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 04:43 PM

ariston said:

Easy one for me guys.- All in. You are "pretty sure he has one of the following hands "(none of which is the nuts). If he doesnt have the strongest hand you will be able to move him off the pot. He isnt going to risk his tournament this early on without having it. If he does make the call whichever hand from the list he holds you still have outs. If you trust your reading abilities on people you should trust them enough to follow your instincts.ariston
he dosnt have enough to fold after check raising to 1500 than betting 5500 thats 7000 + the preflop raise do you think he will fold ANY hand for another 2500 or so? its impossible to fold when there would be almost 20,000 in the pot for 2500 more. fold your queens and move on with 9k

#49 Johnsears

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 05:03 PM

I think this is a pretty tough situation. However, based on Daniel's read of what his hand could possibly be(like saying basically he knows that the guy doesn't already have a K or A high flush) I would go allin here, though I think laying the hand down might not be a bad play either... it seems like a really close situation.I don't understand why anyone would choose to flat call since at that point there seems to be little way of avoiding getting the rest of your chips in on the river(16k or so in the pot and you have about 5k left?)Not only that, but very, very few cards could come down on the river that would actually make you feel confident you have the hand won.But in any case I say allin. In fact, if I was very confident he didn't have AA/KK or an ace or king high flush on the flop, I probably would have moved in when he checkraised me.

#50 jlgosse

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 06:05 PM

If you think that your opponent has the better hand, fold.It should be obvious.

#51 sixclubcult

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 06:14 PM

Not knowing his chip stack might make this inaccurate, but it just seems like he's committed to much to the pot already to move him off the hand. I don't think he'd be pounding that hard with a king high flush and with the other hearts that are out makes me think he doesn't have a flush. 9-9 is my guess. I don't think you can get him to fold so you almost have to.

#52 Big-Ern777

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 07:23 PM

I'm just curious as to what his hand may be, but a fold here I believe is the correct play. To me just him having the A of hearts here (which would be the best case scenario as just a pair of Js without a heart or low heart is making a huge mistake if he's check-raising rather than immediately raising at the flop) would be really overly aggressive as you could have a pair of Js or two-pair and the K of clubs certainly wouldn't be that much of a scare card as it doesn't seem as though he's banking on drawing a straight if he's check-rasing that flop. I think most likely he has AA, with or without the Ace of hearts (most likely with) or the small flush. Either way you're dominated thus far and do not need to risk your chips any further.

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 11:31 PM

I have questions...1. Is this guy too aggressive?2. Is he the type that would push hard to try and steal?3. Would he push hard while being scared?4. Is he good enough to lay down a great hand?First, I would have raised alot more than 3x bb. Atleast make it 250 to let people know you are serious and to chase out the BB that could have anything if he is playing loose. This was the first mistake IMO. The second mistake comes on the flop. You either push all in or you fold after the check raise. You do not call. You are either ahead or practically drawing dead to his AKs unless you suck out runner runner.Post flop with his check raise...I conservatively lay it down and wait for a better spot. These tournaments have blinds increasing every 90 minutes. That is forever to catch fat hands that you know you are going to win as opposed to this scenario where your risk/reward ratio is not that great.This early in the tourney...why risk it? You could be drawing dead post turn.

#54 Johnsears

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 11:49 PM

Yeshua_Won said:

First, I would have raised alot more than 3x bb. Atleast make it 250 to let people know you are serious and to chase out the BB that could have anything if he is playing loose. This was the first mistake IMO.
I have to disagree. In a tournament if I get the feeling someone has a monster hand I will call very large raises preflop with trashy hands because I know if I hit a random 2 pair or straight there is a good chance I can take their whole stack.

#55 ariston

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Posted 31 March 2005 - 11:56 PM

I have given this a lot of thought and I still stand by my first instinct of allin. It doesnt matter about pot odds IMO when you put his tournament on the line, He could be drawing to a dead pair up if you have top set and he has 99- If he has top set he could already be behind to the flush. It would help I admit to know the other guys stack size and even who the other player is (is he good enough to laydown a set here? Is he the sort to survive or is he trying to win the event?). As I said earlier if your read is correct and he calls you still have plenty of outs. The call is an option many people have automatically ruled out because it would certainly worry him-"what hand could he be calling with?". Again this would come down to what "type" of player your opponent is -is he the sort to push on the river whatever falls? Against certain players call is the best option as it gives you chance to outplay him on the river if the board changes or if he checks. A smallish milking type bet on the river would surely scream at him thats hes beat if the board doesnt change. Folding is not an option here as there are too many chances you can take the pot off him, either now or on the river.ariston

#56 jooka

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Posted 01 April 2005 - 12:08 AM

Quote

It doesnt matter about pot odds IMO when you put his tournament on the line
since we are only getting to know what he's bet and what our stack is, how do you know you're putting his tournament on the line? As far as we know it would be our ass on the line, which is partially why I havent made my vote yet. Its a crucial piece of info I dont think I can vote without knowing.(at least in my mind it is)

#57 nitrolife

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Posted 01 April 2005 - 03:07 AM

ariston said:

As I said earlier if your read is correct and he calls you still have plenty of outs.
But none of your outs are the nuts....then you face a tougher decision next bet....even IF you hit.

Quote

Against certain players call is the best option as it gives you chance to outplay him on the river if the board changes or if he checks.
A call could never be your best option. He is highly HIGHLY unlikely to lay it down for the price. You would need a tight passive player to lay it down....they don't make the bets that were made in this hand.

Quote

A smallish milking type bet on the river would surely scream at him thats hes beat if the board doesnt change. Folding is not an option here as there are too many chances you can take the pot off him, either now or on the river.ariston
A milking raise would get you put allin before you can blink. You can not be cutesy or show weakness in this scenario....and if you miss, you have precisely zero chances to take the pot off of him.
You are wrong everytime, I am right everytime. That does not mean I am saying I am perfect....I'm much too humble to admit the obvious.

#58 ariston

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Posted 01 April 2005 - 04:15 AM

Ok i take the milking raise comment back. If you go allin and get called you gave no deision to make whatever comes. If your read is correct (daniel does play alot on his reads) it doesnt matter that none of your outs are nut outs- you will still have outs to win. I think a reraise here will do the job and take the pot though.

#59 vaglvr

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Posted 01 April 2005 - 04:40 AM

akishore said:

i'm definitely going against the grain, but i push all-in.1. if he has AJ with the ace of hearts, or any nut flush draw besides AK and AA, your pair of queens is good.2. if he has a set, you have a strong draw for higher set, straight, or flush. 14 outs with two cards to come.3. this seems like an ideal flop to attempt a bluff-check-raise.4. you might make him fold if he's on a bluff or uncomfortable with his set/draw, but you're also comfortable with a call.5. i realize that it's early, but daniel's not one to play scared money. if he busts, fine, but this is an ideal situation to double up early and accumulate chips.6. this hand came up in reno, it's in daniel's blog. he called and folded when the river came no help, and i think he feels that he should have pushed.7. it sets a nice aggressive + fearless table image for you if you win or make him fold, especially if you show him the hand after you fold.all-in.aseemp.s. this very much reminds me of the NL cash game hand i posted, though pot odds are more relevant in my hand whereas tournament strategy is more relevant here. can't wait to see daniel's answer to this quiz, i think it'll be applicable to my post as well.
I immediatlely thought of your hand you posted in the strategy section. I hope your calculations are correct i went with you on this one.....

#60 Erudis

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Posted 01 April 2005 - 07:30 AM

ariston said:

I think a reraise here will do the job and take the pot though.
not a chance the opponent is folding to an all-in here, daniel doesn't have enough chips to move anyone off this pot (regardless of opponents chip-stack: if he has daniel covered it's right to call, if he doesn't it's right to call). i've said this earlier, if you go all-in here it can only be because you think you have the best hand. daniel said that he is pretty sure that he does not have the best hand. All-in is not an option here.




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