In analyzing the hand soley on betting... I put you on top or middle pair after the flop and your opponent the BB on a draw. After the turn you increase your bet and he calls confirming that he is on a draw perhaps a straight and/or low flush draw. No way he has an overpair. Pure draw here...but taking into account his stack, he has a lot of outs to continue calling. He didn't come over the top on 4th street so 8-9 is not a possibility. After 4th street he is still on a draw and has committed 24% of his stack and is not pot committed. The $700 bet on the river is another 67% of his stack and probably not a representation, the Ac has helped his hand and made a draw. What does he have...let eliminate some hands. He does not have AA as he would have raised much earlier. He doesn't have 8-9 we already eliminated that hand. He does not have Kc Jc as he would have raised on 4th street with top pair and a nut flush draw. I would probably put him on Q-K no club draw or at best the Kc and a 8c or 9c giving him the nut flush draw and a gutshot straight draw. I put him all in as I would be certain that he would have gone all in if he had the nuts...seeing as there is not a full house draw on the board...he has draw a hand but not the nuts....calling all-in is the way to go. You have the best hand !!
DanielNegreanu, on Thursday, March 9th, 2006, 11:53 AM, said:
You are playing a heads up NL sit n' go and have 1700 to your opponents 1300 with blinds at 15-30. You are dealt Q :icon_suit_club: 7 :icon_suit_club: and raise to 80. The big blind calls. The flop comes 10 :icon_suit_club: 7 :icon_suit_spade: 4 :icon_suit_club:. Your opponent checks, and you bet 100- he calls. The turn is J :icon_suit_heart:. Your opponent checks, and you decide to bet again, and bet 150- he calls. The river is the A :icon_suit_club: and now your opponent bets 700 leaving him with only 270 left. You aren't going to fold, but is it a better play to just call, or should you put him all in?
The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits.